Analysts back Microsoft's 3m Kinect sales claim

Eurogamer writes: "Microsoft reckons upcoming motion-sensing add-on Kinect will sell over three million units this Christmas, destroy iPad sales and perhaps even be the biggest platform launch of all time.

But will it? Eurogamer chatted to three top analysts to get their verdict on Microsoft's bold and brash Kinect sales claim - and they all agreed."

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Hellsvacancy2924d ago ShowReplies(4)
PimpHandHappy2924d ago (Edited 2924d ago )

"I believe Microsoft is just simply communicating to us all that the Kinect will not be another Bing, or Zune, or worse, Kin.

"I'm not as optimistic as you that this is a conservative figure. The standalone units mean that existing 360 owners are willing to pay $150 for something that they aren't convinced they need.

Colin Sebastian, from Lazard Capital Markets, also backed Microsoft.
"This sounds like a reasonable expectation for sell-through, and is consistent with our estimates," he said.

Shadow Flare2924d ago

I want to know what those 3 million people will be playing

Omega42924d ago

I think MS actually expects to sell more than 3ml. Like the article said its rare for a company to state estimates with actual figures before the product releases. They have seen the preorders so they must be pretty confident and I'm sure they are going to want to say "Kinect is selling well above expectations".

btk2924d ago

They are bluffing themselves.
History is full of hyped products that just fell down in the mud regardless of the analyst projections.

MS can expect what they want. There is a few facts to consider:

1. Price.
$150 is a lot of moolah to part with. The games themselves is 30% more than what other platforms ask for casual games. Maybe the reasoning is that mini games sell well on Wii, so if they make it for XB360 it will sell like hotcakes - so they can charge more. Answer is NO. Casuals pay less for games. Calling it a casual game and asking more is not going to shift units.

2. Functionality
Now even the fanboys will think twice if the product does not produce what is promised. So far MS has been hyping future potential and showing Fitness games, Dancing games - and epic flailing in some games. When all is said an done - it does no more than the EyeToy.

Saying it is a new "Platform" does not make it a new platform
Saying that it will do x,y,z in future - well - gamers will wait until it does before buying.

outrageous2924d ago (Edited 2924d ago )

Well estimates have been brought down from the lofty 5 million M$ was talking about not to long ago. What M$ really wants is to sell bundles with Kinect to new customers and really smash the competition...if they had reduced their price to $99.99 like ALL the analysts had said, it would of been a phenom. There is alot of room to drop, price wise in the new year and they really are hoping to cash in on a new craze...the key word being " Hoping "...I think the $299 bundle could really take off if Kinect shows itself to be a winner in the eyes of the casual gaming market.

Cyrus3652924d ago

Got hand to microsoft, who'd have thought they can take PS Eye with some improvements, market it for $150, and still get a demand...

niceguywii602924d ago (Edited 2924d ago )

They will sell more than 3 million. Kinect will have Wii-like adoption. Come on controlling games with your body! every Soccer mom in the world will have their kidz begging for it and casual families and real gamers will love it for one reason or the other.

I'm talking about real gamers, you know the ones that play everything because gaming is their hobby and they play and own everything for that console or others.

AceofStaves2924d ago

Unless the software warrants the purchase, and the hardware actually works as promised, there could be a significant number of returns.

Microsoft has to ensure the product will meet quality standards, or word-of-mouth could be the true Kinect-killer.

btk2924d ago

I think the word-of-mouth killer is what is causing the Greenberg statement and the shut-up articles. I think they are seeing it in the pre-orders. Remember - retailers already said they think Move will sell more than Kinect. By making statements like expecting 3M sales is an attempt to hype to create sales.

rwarner1742924d ago

They will sell alot at first I don't doubt. But over time this thing will stall because the software most likely won't warrent the purchase.

2924d ago
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