Why I was wrong about HD DVD

David Carnoy
Executive editor, CNET Reviews:

"I read an article recently in Variety with the headline "Pressure mounts on U to turn Blu," which reported how Universal, the only major studio to offer HD DVD-exclusive titles, was being encouraged to put its films out on both HD DVD and Blu-ray. While Universal wouldn't be abandoning HD DVD, such a move would have a profound impact on the format war, and would probably spell doom for the HD DVD camp.

Knowing the stakes, format-war watchers have been monitoring the Universal situation closely, with the more conspiracy minded speculating on who's getting paid what to keep Universal from flipping. I have no idea, but I did run into Ken Graffeo, Executive VP of HD strategic marketing for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, at a Toshiba HD DVD event last month. I jokingly suggested that we weren't sure he was going to show up, what with all the rumors flying. He assured me that with the weather being so hot in New York, he wouldn't have been there if he didn't want to be--and that Universal's support for HD DVD remained unflagging. Graffeo also happens to be copresident of the HD DVD Promotional Group, so you can see how people might think that if Universal pulled out, the whole tent might come crashing down."

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

Here we go Blu vs HD, the same arguement from all the other HD vs Blu articles. F**kem both, GO DLC!!!

[TriggerHappy]

Although most supporters are going blu-ray exclusive and such, Am wondering how exactly HD DVD is going to keep up with the competition

[THE_JUDGE]

you could have the damn actors walk out of the screen and give you a Q&A session on the movie in your home but if you don't have the movies that people want to see then it doesn't matter. 3 exclusive backers of Blu-ray says alot more than seeing special features with picture in picture.

[eLiNeS]

I know my wife would enjoy the features but after watching a movie with her I am ready to start gaming, not watch features. I guess if I was going to back one of the sides I would go with HD-DVD since it's cheaper, more features and Sony didn't force it on me.

Here is a read on "'Heroes' HD-DVD to Feature Web Enhanced Features" if anyone is interested.

http://www.buddytv.com/arti...

[HowarthsNJ]

Both Blu-ray and HD-DVD are high capacity discs, so why would you need to download extra content to flash memory?

I want all my content on the disc in the first place!

No need for picture in picture animated interactive BS either. We buy movies in HD for the films not the distractions.

[ReconHope]

i hope this so called "format war" is over by 2010.

[sticky doja]

And that commentary was funnier than the movie. For some movies I like that type of thing, movies I truly love and want to know how they did certain things or why. It might not be your cup o' tea but it is for alot of people.

[Mr Murda]

The idea is that you can access and interact with web based functions/extras, which could be updated regularly. Therefore, you would need some sort of flash memory to interact with these web based features. Is it totally necessary? Probably not, but it is one thing that HD DVD has over BRD and they're going to milk it for all it's worth.

That being said, I own a PS3 and the HD DVD add on, and I'm looking forward to great HD movies and features on both formats for the foreseeable future.

[Odion]

oh how this is gaming news is still beyond me

[sticky doja]

but it is Microsoft V Sony news and alot of people want to read that on this site.

[Nervsys]

I've never understood why this is microsoft v sony.

I'm sure microsoft don't really care who wins. If BR wins then a BR drive will surely appear for the Xbox at some point.

Sony are the only company of the two that have a lot invested in the result of this battle, though I guess it may be in microsoft's interest to keep it going as long as possible but if HD losses it isn't going to cripple them.

[BubblesDAVERAGE]

As long as DLC dosent win at all. I dont want DLC to win or even enter the race im glad to see im not alone who dosent want DLC.

Why you guys disagree...Dont you want the item to be in your hand..same goes for games..not for music but im a collector or movies somewhat

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

I bet you $100 that Sony adopts DLC by the end of the year, it's to popular and the sad thing is you know it and it scarres you because you will then have to defend it. Like when Sony fanboys had to denfend Sony's third sku after talking sh!t because of the 360. DLC is a legitimate threat to Blu-Ray and HD DVD and with the recent great news about new compression on the horizon it's only going to get more popular when portables can store DLC on the fly. But hey there is an upside you can always use your disc to create some kind of new art or just use them as coasters.

[Kyur4ThePain]

At what speed do you expect to be able to download content?
What format?
Thought about compatibility between different formats and players?
Where do you expect to store all this information?
What about a backup strategy? And storage for that?

Let me know how all that works out for ya.

[Nemesis]

I would rather have a physical medium over digitally distributed content anyday. However, I think digital distribution is the way of the future, whether we like it or not.

Technically we're nearing the point where base level broadband connections are fast enough to stream full 1080p H.264 content. By my reckoning 10 - 20Mbps is sufficient for this purpose. Especially with the new upcoming H.265 standard set to cut bit-rates in half.

What really worries me though is DRM. Content distributors could limit playback of their content to a single player, or even limit the number of times your able to view the content before your license expires.

And of course, no physical medium also means the inability to lend content to friends and would cripple the second hand market. But I guess that's one of the motivating factors that's surely going to lead studio's down this path in the future.

Lets just hope that digital distribution insn't inevitable and that consumer interest groups can exert enough pressure on the studios to make sure this doesn't happen any time soon.

[razer]

Let me answer these for you. I am using the 360 as my focus because they are one of the only people doing HD movie downloads.

At what speed do you expect to be able to download content?

Right now, you can download full HD movies just fine on a standard broadband connection. You do not have to wait for the whole movie to download.. Once a few minutes of content has been downloaded you can start watching the movie and it downloads in the background.

What format?
Right now it seems WMV-HD is MS's format of choice. It's basically an MPEG4.

Thought about compatibility between different formats and players?

As with MP3 people will adopt a format. Companies like HP and Linksys already offer network media appliances and this market is growing like crazy. Both of these media players support all the major video formats. A software codec is much easier to adopt than a physical media format.

Where do you expect to store all this information?

Have you seen the price of hard drive space?? It's cheap! Just like with HD TiVO you can have a stand-alone device with 300-500 gigs. For the 360 you can delete a few things and re-download them whenever you want.

What about a backup strategy? And storage for that?

I don't think this is really important to the consumer. How do you back-up your Blu-ray discs?? You don't.. DRM & cost stops you from doing it. For the 360 you actually have the files stored on MS's service and if you delete it you can re-download it at any time. So basically they take care of the back-up for you. Outside of MS's service you would handle it just like you handle any other data backup. Which most people don't do anyway..

[leshrac55]

Unless DLC is handled a LOT differently then it inevitably will be, I'm not looking forward to DLC in games OR movies. I wrote up a post on my site about this, but I'll add a bit here as well. Say goodbye to rental services that compete with each other, used movies/games, and being able to borrow a movie/game from a friend.

There will also be NO pricing competition among stores, as there will basically be only 1 place to get them. You can also forget about prices being cut after a game/movie has been out for awhile... No need, as there's no used market to compete with. And if they ever do drop prices on DLC, it'll be a lot later than a regular disc. If you think you'll get better prices because the middleman has been cut out, I think the current experience with DLC basically disproves this. Content providers are interested in increasing their margins and protecting their prices. If an HD Movie costs $25 now on HD-DVD or Blu-ray, it'll probably cost that much on DLC, be a lot less portable, and has basically 100% price depreciation the moment you hit "buy". I definitely do not look forward to that, as convenient as DLC can be for just watching/playing stuff.

-Jeff
http://alinktothefuture.com

[MK_Red]

I still believe that the war is bad. Dont get me wrong, I'm not a fanboy and I love the price-drop and new features of competition BUT:

If one side loses, the early and other major adopters of that side would be huge problem. Anyone remember the Beta Vs VHS war? I know people who bought a lot of movies for Beta in its prime but after it lost were forced to buy most of them for the winning VHS. Lower price and better tech are good but nothing can cure the pain and wound having having an incomplete collection of movies on a lost format that wont get new films.

Now that the both formats have enough tech and better price, I seriously hope a winner emerges soon or at least some kind of assurance that they can co-exist until next-gen formats come (If they come).

[dork0783]

zzzz who cares this is not even gaming news.

[Nemesis]

But I think a lot of people on this site are also interested in movies. Personally I don't see any harm in discussing these issues.

[macalatus]

As much as I agree with you that it is more a "home theatre news" instead of a gaming news. However, hardcore fanboys from both sides keep a close tab on this one, because how Blu-Ray fares can have a partial (keyword: partial) impact on the overall success of PS3.

[BLACKJACK VII]

New tech comes & goes & we all rebuy our movie collections over & over & over. By the time BluRay or HD-DVD players & discs reach mass market appeal & pricepoints, another new format will take it's place - like perhaps HVD or DLC. And then we all buy our movie collection over again ....

[MK_Red]

Superb point. First I had to choose between VHS/Beta, then upgrade my VHS collection to DVD (And I'm not done yet with that!) and now have to go next-gen HD/Blu plus all the downloadable content and I dont know which which one (HD-DVD, Blu-ray & Digital Distrubution).

[gnothe1]

what gets me is that people know that digital distribution is the direction things are going. MS knows it, Sony knows it, its just many of you that refuse a believe it.Phil Harrison said he'd be surprised if the Ps3 has a physical disc drive, WHY? because he know the direction things are going. they would rather put in a 500 gb HDD an be done with it, instead of fighting with blue laser shortages an the crap that comes with it(remember the DISC READ ERROR from the PS2 days)then you guys keep talking about downloading huge amounts of data. if they wanted to you wouldnt have to download anything but a small access file or maybe a gig of game info an thats it!! the game is on a huge SERVER, you buy the game download the access key an it lets you play the game FROM THERE SERVER. how do you think comcast can put all those movies on the service for people to use. so content ON DEMAND will be here before you know it. plus its not all as bad as it may seem. it might just LOWER the price of games because publishers dont have to pay for PRINTING LABLES, PACKAGING AN SHIPPING MILLIONS OF COPIES OF GAMES!!

http://www.1up.com/do/newsS...

http://playstation3.wordpre...

[DJ]

and he was careful to state that his opinions do not necessarily reflect the views/plans/decisions of Sony Corp. He's just one person within the company.

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

Spin DJ Spin! although his job is the PS3 but try and spin the truth anyway your good at that even though it never works.

[DJ]

(since you seem to have trouble comprehending this concept) just because Peter Moore or Robbie Back state certain things that they would like to see on Xbox Live, or offered by the hardware, does not mean that Microsoft Corp. feels the same way.

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

"Microsoft is planning to expand their successful XBOX Live Marketplace Worldwide to countries including Canada to provide HDTV and Movie downloads. Will they be able to carry out the service worldwide?"

"Xbox LIVE is the first and most comprehensive unified online entertainment network seamlessly integrated throughout the entire console experience, making it easy for people to find the friends, games and entertainment they want from the moment they power on their Xbox 360 system. Xbox LIVE connects millions of members across 25 countries to enjoy hundreds of multiplayer games, downloadable games via Xbox LIVE Arcade, free and premium playable game demos, music videos, TV shows and movies in the United States as well as new game levels, characters and vehicles for all their favorite retail games. More information can be found online at http://www.xbox.com/en-us/l...

http://money.cnn.com/news/n... RUN AND HIDE disc lovers ther is a new sherriff in town and it's name is DLC. Goodbye scratch on purpose to force you to buy another copy disc format I WON"T MISS YOU, goodbye goodbye goodbye.

I no longer have to spend $10 on gas and drive 5 miles away to deal with a pimply faced teenager that hasn't learned how to use a cash register yet and hates his job anyway, while having to smell the bad odor from the guy in front of me because he dont bath.

Goodbye, I no longer have to buy a box wraped in sticky tape that breaks the plastic case when you try and remove the DVD from it's protective seal, Goodbye. Goodbye, I don't need to spend extra money on a HD DVD player or a Blu-Ray players to view the same HD movie when all I need is a 360 and a Live account. goodbye good riddance and don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out :-)

[4me2]

1) 360 downloadable HD movies are 720p and I think they include only 1 sound stream. That's why they are 3 to 5GB(HD and Blu are 17 up to 40GB)
HD DVD or Blu-ray are 1080p/1080i plus plenty other features(2x resolution)

2) Most people prefer to own movies. Pay for something they will expire in 4 days and then you have re-buy and most of the time download again due to limited storage.

[macalatus]

All Sony needs to do is implement DLC in Home/PSN. And oh yeah, we still get to keep the Blu-Ray player for "back-up" discs. See? That wasn't painful.

[DJ]

So I don't know why some people are yelling "Screw these formats! DLC all the way baby!" I can see why Universal supporting Blu-ray would lead to HD-DVD falling apart though. Blu-ray is probably going to be around for at least 15 years though, and possibly longer. It supports up to 200GB, and 1080p is the highest HD resolution that the industry wants to/can support. ILM did a lot of research into HD resolutions, and they concluded (back in 1996 I think) that any resolution higher than 1080p has no significant increase in percieved detail.

DLC is good for small things like movie trailers, tv episodes, and additional game content, and until we get 2TB hard drives as standard and can download at Gigabit standards Blu-ray will have no feasible competition.

[trueltie5]

Jason my friend no hard feelings but you must be Amish...Catch up my friend...I know new technology is pricey but please don't try and stick up for outdated stuff. We all here at N4g would like to start a bake sale so you can get some new stuff

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

Ha ha would make a snazy comment but I'm way to busy laughing at you. You believe every thing the Sony heads do you? LOL wow! DLC outdated although it's pretty much brand new, how long disc format been out compaired to DLC? ahh can't breath laughing so freaking hard it hurts. ahhhh ok I'm done what a fool.

[M1am1U]

I can't emphasize enough though...broadband is growing exponentially. Storage is becoming bigger and cheaper. With that technology getting into more and more people's homes, and with DOCSIS 3.0 just around the corner, it's going to allow massive file downloads in very short periods of time. Fiber to the home is a reality with companies like Verizon, and cable MSO's are starting to implement that strategy as well. I know it's not going to take over overnight, but I firmly believe that's the ultimate direction things are moving. Below is an interesting article on the subject.

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/techno...

[Anything but Cute]

Unless you own an XBOX 360 or a PS3, how else do you download movies to watch on your TV? From your computer? For now, I think Blu ray or HD DVD is still needed. Even when digital distribution takes over, I still think there will be some room for disc format.

[ghettocheeze]

You grab a movie toss it in the player. Watch the movie. ENJOY. Two hours later your turn the TV off when the movies is over. Go to bed.

Nope I have never wasted my time on watching all those silly extras like how they did and what not. Please I rather move on to other things or just prefer to pop another disc in and watch me some more movies.

Go watch a movie at a cinema and see how many people actually stay till the end to watch the bloopers reel?

Extra features are a novelty and very small group of people care about it.

[cdzie1]

Here’s a snippet from IGN’s perfect review of ‘300’ on HD DVD:

"This is one incredibly strong and distinctly Spartan collection of extras and well worth following into battle.

Score: 10 out of 10

We could easily use 300 words to describe this gorgeous, benchmark HD DVD, but we'll only use three in conclusion: Buy…It…Now…"

[XxZxX]

yeah but sadly people are getting blu-ray version of 300 instead, well at least that's what it said in Amazon.

DVD version: #1 overall sales rank
Blu-ray version: #3 overall sales rank
HD-DVD version #8 overall sales rank

[360Crusader]

I really dont care one bit. They will both be another Laser Disk.
Dvd will survive both of them.

[psycho360]

I beg to differ. After watching 720p or 1080i videos on my 50" HDTV, the regular dvds and TV channels look bland and blurry. Unless there is a way that HD content can fit into a dvd and can be played on regular dvd players there is no way HD players will sink like laser disc. What (imho) caused the downfall of the laserdisc was that when it was introduced in the early 90s, big screen TVs (forget HD) were not avaialable at that time to truly take advantage of the high PQ being offered by the LD. Price was another factor for both the player and the disc. What i think is that both the HD formats will continue to struggle against the DVD and once the prices of HD Tvs and HD players comes down to a level where a middleclass family can afford these items than the either both or one of the HD formats will start overtaking DVD sales.

[360Crusader]

Hey dont get me wrong I do think they are better. I just dont know alot of people who buy them. People are afraid to pick b/c they may waste money on the loser. Thats why I havent bought one blu ray or hd dvd, other then
Talladega Nights that came with my PS3. And the players cost a ton of money if this war does go on I dont see their being a winner for years untill that prices go down. And anyone who own a PS3 well you can pretty much guess that decision was made for them.

[tethered]

One of these two formats will win and that format will last at least 10 years.

And the reason I believe this is because not everyone is hooked up to the internet, much less high speed internet access which is needed for downloads.

Here is the very important point I want to make.

There is a huge chunk of the population that will wait to adopt the new format, whatever one that ends up winning, simply because they cant afford it just yet. I am talking about the lower middle class. Do you realize how big that group of people actually is? The lower middle class that can't afford the fancy HDTV and the fancy HD player just yet.

They will still be buying standard DVD's for the next 5 years just waiting for the price of HDTV's and HD players to come down. Then they will buy into it.

If you believe the lower middle class is ready for down-loadable content at this point in time you are wrong.

This is the reason the format war is going on.
The winner really will make a huge profit in the next 10 years.

If the industry just dropped the disc format to go with DLC they would wipe out a third to a half of their profits because thats about how many people would no longer be able to buy them simply because they can't afford it yet.

[felidae]

hm. this article is lame.

[Arutha]

I have both formats (HD-A1) and a PS3. I like to see both formats stick around and keep each other in a check in balance. For one it will keep driving the prices down and each generation of players will add more features. It is to bad that all studios couldn't stay neutral and let the consumers decide on which player to buy. If we have 3 systems for games, why not 2 players for movies?

At least it wasn't to expensive in getting into the new technology. I got into both for $1,000 which is the same price for just a DVD player back in 1997. I'll take 2 for 1 any day.

[Arutha]

Doh! wrong reply

[7ero H3LL]

Of course DLC from Xbox Live! is in 720p! It's made that may to hit a great mdeium between quality and file size. 1080p would be defeating the purpose of online distribution, since its a compressed format. And yeah, most of them have only 1 audio stream, although 2 are not technically impossible. Thing is, DLC has already taken hold of the market, and did so long before these consoles were even thought of.

Don't you guys ever remeber the battle that was CD vs MP3 player? Well, who won THAT war? You can still buy CDs, and its great for a home selection, but times have changed and the hardware currently out there permits users and viewers to make a choice in physical media (opitcal discs, flash memory) or locally stored DLC (HDD). And since pretty much every teenager out there chose mp3 for its portability, people are going to chose DLC for its

1: incredibley easy distibution (through the internet, live! and p2p)
2: ability to be accepted via external players (much like Portable Media Devices, such as iPod and Zune) for home to on-the-go playback
3: Does anyone still use a camera that doesn't use connectivity to a PC, flash or any other means of storage?
4: maleability, meaning editable content, since you can take any supported movie format and put it in Movie Maker or whatever and presto! User created content.

In short, DLC is not an undecided factor, it's already mainstream. Every trailer you download pasically proves that! And just as mp3 (and its many variations) surpassed CD, mpeg2 and 4 will have surpassed both DVD, HD-DVD AND Blu-Ray!

[PlayStation360]

And I do agree with you. But there is a difference between music download and downloading movies. Movies take up more space, and download very slow (compared to music). Movie download has been around for a little while now. But it's not high in popularity compared to buying movies on DVD/Blu/HD.

I'm telling you right now, once high speed internet access is easily attainable (price), once higher memory devices come out (atleast a Tera), you can expect more people to get on the DLC band wagon. But I don't see that happening until atleast 2012. So yes, DLC is the way of the future, as many people say here. But don't expect that future to happen in the present. :P

Dude, can you imagine an iPod/zune with 1-2 terabytes of memory, and a long battery life for video play. That would be crazy. When that device comes out, then you know DLC is really mainstream.

[leshrac55]

I agree, DLC is coming. Maybe not soon, but maybe around 2012 or even later, like Playstation 360 is suggesting.

My argument (in another thread above) basically just means that, unless you're willing to basically start paying a lot more for your movies and games, you will probably own far less of them as DLC than you would otherwise. I personally buy a lot of movies and games either used or at big discounts, which you won't be able to do with DLC. Yeah, it's convenient not having to get your ass up off the couch, but I guarantee that it will be pricier than some kind of disc-based format.

Edited: Wanted to add a few things to respond to some of your points:

2) You really want to get into the same mess that audio is in right now with Plays4Sure and Fairplay and all that crap? Ugh.

4) Malleability of content? How open do you think this stuff will be? You can be fairly certain that DLC will probably function much like a disc, as content providers probably won't want you to have that much control over their content. Sure, maybe a few select titles will offer something that takes advantage of having the content on an HD (like being able to edit parts of it or something), but the majority of this crap will probably be locked down pretty tight. If it's not, then content providers probably won't embrace DLC. Why do I know this? Look at MP3... it took them awhile after Napster to figure out how they wanted to allow stuff to be distributed, and only after there was some kind of DRM on it. There's one major company offering non-DRM stuff now, and you pay a premium for it. There's no guarantee it will stick around either.

-Jeff
http://alinktothefuture.com

[Arutha]

Thats just the thing though. Music is very portable, but I don't see to many people walking around with a portable HDTV watching a movie. The comparision between movies and music is apples and oranges. Yes I know there are portable DVD players, but watching a movie on that is just not right in my opinion.

I agree with you on the music on the downloads. It is no big deal since music file size are around 5-6 megs for good quality MP3 songs. Movies on the other hand is a different story. Your talking about 30-50Gigs for a 1080P movie with different audio formats (DD+, TrueHD, PCM or whatever they decide to use). I know right now on my connection 30-50 gigs would take a minimum of a week to download on a torrent program if I was try. I'm sorry that is just to long. Sure you could save space if they made the movies 720P, but I didn't go out and spend good money on a 1080P HDTV(Sony 55A2000) just to play 720P.

Then there are all the restrictions for downloading stuff etc.. Is DLC coming yes and I believe it is here somewhat through Live. I don't think it will be as big as whichever format ends up on top though.

[7ero H3LL]

CD cam in in 1986 and became more prominant between 91 to 99. It was officially announced its successor DVD in 1996. DVD became affordable in 1999, and hit its peak between 2000 to now. In 2003-4 it was announced its successor, the Blu-Ray. But its real launch you could say coincided with the release of the PlayStation 3 in 2006, much like the impact PS2 had on DVD's future back in 2000-1. Blu-Ray has been floating around for while in the news and although its available now, probably won't become affordable until 2k8 and mainstream by 2k10. And that goes for HD-DVD as well.

The thing to note is that DVD didn't realy have a competitor. Maybe VCD, but that didn't stretch out further than Asia, in terms of acceptance. So DVD always ended up being compared with VHS, which was generationaly incompatible. So DVD took hold because of lack of competition.

But was that a BAD THING? I think most would agree with me when I say that in the years it took for DVD to reach where it is now, people didn't have this sort of split between formats.

My take is this: let Blu-Ray take over, for the sake of fewer headaches, and MS should chose now who is goes with. If HD-DVD, that's quite alright, as long as they don't try to tie in the whole movie aspect, and simply chose chose it to maintain "disc incompatibility" with Sony's PS3, thereby still defining a line between the two. It's okay for Blu-Ray to be the winner, and vice versa for HD-DVD, though it's be hard for Sony to re-engineer the PS3s. Right now, believe it or not MS has that flexibility. So there's no real losers!

[i Shank u]

I live in USA, and here you are wrong about DVD having no competitor. When DVD was introduced, there were at least two different types that I can remember, DVD + and DVD - ; it didnt take long for both sides to come to agreement and everything became peaceful. So there were a few types of DVD, a little different then two obviously diff. formats like bluray and HDDVD

[level 360]

Buy a machine that plays both formats - end of story.