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Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

CoffeewithGames.Blogspot.com shows why Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter's recent statement regarding the February NPD data was wrong.

Michael Pachter said in one part, "Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels. Nintendo's Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline."

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CoffeewithChess2832d ago

Do you think Pachter was right or wrong?

Mahr2832d ago (Edited 2832d ago )

Well, the idea that sales are down due more to a fall in demand than to shortages is pretty far-fetched, not the least because decreasing demand is by definition the force that corrects shortages when stores can't raise the price.

Incidentally, this is also why retailers that can raise the price do, which is why places like price grabber, compulus, or ecost are able to get away with selling the Wii at *well* over its regular list price.

And judging from his comments about Wii Play/Fit in general, he apparently forgot to read that chapter in Econ 101 about how complementary goods work. :/

Leio2832d ago

And the sky is blue what a coincidence .

Fierce Musashi2832d ago

Wait? So this man actually get's paid to look through a crystal ball of sh*t?

readiandnot2832d ago

Exactly! They could pay me to do the same!

Nugan2832d ago

Note that Pachter said nothing about titles like New Super Mario Bros. Wii or Mario Kart Wii, which continue to be strong sellers, and have not been sold out. His argument is based entirely on titles that have been experiencing shortages.

Did Pachter overlook something this obvious, or is he coming up with his interpretation first and then just selecting evidence to support it? If it's the latter, what does he have to gain from being chronically wrong? When the sales of the hardware and software he's citing rebound in April or May once the shortages are corrected, it's just going to be another humiliation for him. Bad enough he has to keep revising his claims about when Nintendo will release Wii HD after each of his deadlines pass.

When your predictions are consistently less accurate than the biased opinions of middle school fanboys on the internet, it is time to call it a day.

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