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Pachter Predicts Motion Control Winner

NowGamer: The Wedbush Securities analyst has assessed the factors that could tip the balance in the upcoming console motion control war

"The key to success with a retrofitted motion controller is penetration," Pachter told NowGamer. "Without a meaningful installed base of consoles with the new motion controllers, developers will not be able to cost justify development of games that require motion control. Therefore, it's a chicken and egg problem."

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Roper3162868d ago

I think he put the prices backwards. MS doesn't price anything competitively, nothing! $100 wifi adapter and $175 HDD say I am right and that he ( Patcher ) is wrong yet again.

Personally I hope they both fail and fail hard because I hate motion controls.

snaz272868d ago

offering a blu-rayless ps3!? lmao, seriously, does this guy get paid? i would say the wand will be many 40, bout the same price as a ds3, natal well who knows, they dont have a good track record with pricing, clever track record but not a good one, ie they were very clever making people believe 360 was cheap!

Julie2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

"a blu-rayless ps3"

Lol he really said that? for real or as a joke? o_O

vhero2868d ago

Definitely got the prices backwards no way would Sony charge $100 per wand! They wouldn't sell a single Arc wand at that price point. The Natal however would work as Natal supports more than 1 player for the single device where-as to play with more than 1 player with ARC you need multiple wands.

sikbeta2868d ago

Yes Julie, he's Really That Stupid lol

On-Topic

I can do the same...I predict...the Megadrive, where's my check?

Unbelievable

SL1M DADDY2868d ago

MS is not known for having decent price points for their accessories so it would behove me to see them actually price Natal cheaper than the Arc. Only time will tell I guess.

barom2868d ago

Actually he's probably right. Think about it, two wands + the PS Eye Camera would probably be around 100$. Natal just had it's built-in CPU removed so it's basically just a camera right now, 50$ for it sounds reasonable.

Sony will probably do a bunch of different bundles though. Two wands plus game for 60$. Or maybe Camera + 2 wands + game for 100$. I don't know but if you look at the history of Sony's accessories they've always been associated in bundles. Eye Play with Eye Toy, Buzz with Buzz controllers, Eye Of Judgment with PS Eye, Warhawk with Headset, Socom with Headset and so forth.

Godmars2902868d ago

You're looking at it wrong.

The 360 itself is competitively priced. That's the whole point of the Core/Arcade SKU. Its once the fully uninformed, the parents or family of a gamer who might know better yt still gets it as a gift, that then its realized the overpriced HDD is needed.

MS wants to put Natal in homes and are likely to eat some costs if they have to. If they can tack on some extra costs, like lacking it in with an Arcade, if they have to.

wicko2868d ago

Doesn't anyone else feel that basing their success solely on their price tags is completely ridiculous?

Without the software, these motion controls are absolutely useless. It wasn't just the fact that the Wii had motion controls that made it so popular, it was stuff like Wii Play and Wii Sports that got people interested.

Even then, he never discusses multiplayer with the devices. How many people can be tracked at once on Natal and how does it impact the 360's performance? And how much will it cost for extra wands on the Arc? Multiplayer was another reason why the Wii is so successful. If Natal can't handle multiplayer or Arc wands are too expensive, this will affect sales.

Fox012868d ago

How much is Sony's Eye Toy to begin with? Now factor in the cost of their sex toy and their LEGENDARY marketing and BOOM!

The PS3Mote (which still doesn't have a name) was suppose to come out in March.

darthv722868d ago

Most of what he predicts ends up going differently anyway.

So if he predicts the arc then you know the natal will be the winner. If he predicts natal then the arc will be the winner. Why bother patcher...wiimote is way out in front.

HighDefinition2868d ago

They are gonna wreck gaming for us.

Natal is a cool interface, Arc interests me more. In the end I could do w/o all of them.

E3 is gonna be mini game central, trust me.

IdleLeeSiuLung2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

To the ill informed above:

- Pachter didn't predict a blu-ray lacking PS3, it was Mike Hickey. Source: http://www.gamepro.com/arti...

- Game support is dependent on the price point, because if it isn't reasonably priced nobody will be picking the accessory up. Without a large enough user base developers will not make games for it. In the end the sucess is dependent on killer software and price point.

- Can't find a source right now, but Natal is supposed to be able to track up to 4 players simultaneously.

Finally, keep in mind that the Wii is only $200 right now!!! The package has to be competitively priced....

Jinxstar2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

Julie and Snaz

I dislike patcher as much as anyone else does but it wasn't him that said that. It was some dummy named Mike Hickey from Janco.

http://www.engadget.com/200...

Edit: Idle lee beat me to it =D Game on bro and bubs up

Blaze9292868d ago

Godmars290 pretty much nailed it. You all are mixing up Microsoft's ambition with Natal with optional accessories. Microsoft's goal is to capture that casual audience and get Natal into as many homes as possible and they can only do that by offering Natal for a very cheap price point - even at a loss on Microsoft's side. That is the whole reason they removed the internal chip from Natal, they are trying to get it as low as possible. If that wasn't the case, then they would've kept the chip in a let it retail for hella expensive.

Microsoft knows what they are doing when it comes to the market and marketing Natal. NO ONE is going to buy this thing at over $80, no one. They know this as much as anyone else here knows this. Remember, this is for the casual market first and foremost - not the hardcore market who goes out and buys anything becuase they can or want to.

This is not the wifi adapter, hard drive, etc. all optional features Microsoft doesn't "push". Natal, they are pushing and pushing hard. Let's not forget, Microsoft has the bank to even sell it at a loss to achieve their goal whereas Sony may not be able to. So I definitely do see Natal retailing for maybe $70 at least with bundles games from Rare and others.

I don't see the wand being $100 though. I see maybe it being $50 for the wand alone, ~$80 for the wand and PS Eye, ~$110+ for the twin pack.

HighDefinition2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

I think your missing the point.

$70 bundled.LOL.

MS released a 120Gb HDD for $180US a Wireless reciever for $120US and charge people $60 annually to play online.

Period.

Corporations are out to make $$$, not friends.

whoelse2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

"If price points are high, it is unlikely that Natal or Sony’s motion controller will sell many units; if they are very low, they will sell a lot more."

That's capitalism for ya :D

Seriously, how can this guy get paid?

wicko2868d ago

I've never read anything about being able to track 4 players at once. In fact, the articles I have read mentioned the Natal software taking up about 10-15% of the 360's resources, and you can bet that they would have been touting 4 players simultaneously as a feature from the get go. And none of the promotional videos from E3 about natal depicted more than one person being tracked at the same time.

Raz2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

"If price points are high, it is unlikely that Natal or Sony’s motion controller will sell many units; if they are very low, they will sell a lot more."

OMG! Really?? People buy more of something when it's low-price? Thanks for the education, Mike.

“My uninformed opinion is that Microsoft will price relatively low, and Sony will price higher”

Well...at least he's giving his opinion the right label.

EDIT: @ disagrees

Just because the man is a gaming industry analyst doesn't mean he's any good at it.

UltraNova2868d ago

If Sony hasn't learnt a thing or two about pricing their product higher than the competition then they deserve to lose this new 'motion control war'

My projection is that MS will gain slightly more market share than Sony simply because they offer something relatively new to the table (no controller of any kind). But if Sony play their cards right, mostly the price and they keep their agenda of producing AAA 1st party games they will likely be on par with MS's Natal or even surpass it.

What I would not like to see in any circumstance is both MS and Sony giving the middle finger to us hardcore players (see Nintendo Wii..)in favor of this new trend they eagerly push to us.

Namely, the day they announce a motion controlled HALO, GoW, GOW, MGS, Resistance,Killzone , Mass Effect or any other Harcore game, that will be the day I will personally take both my 360 and ps3 and lock them in my seller, then I will buy a monster of a PC (more likely a home supercomputer) and play Crysis 1 and 2 to death or until I get over it.

My 2 cents.

Fox012868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

Wrong reply.

Godmars2902868d ago

Corporations may only want money, by way of making a product then building a reputation on it, but they also want market control. Usually they do this by earning trust - or the appearance of friendship you look down upon - through the quality of their products but MS never really learned this.

SilentNegotiator2868d ago

So, the Ps3 wand then?
:D

It's way too early to call. We don't know prices, don't much MUCH about the games, etc, etc.....

pixelsword2868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

...If you stopped reading at "My uninformed opinion", I can't say that I blame you.

Why is this guy getting paid again? And I should listen to him for what reason now?

mikepmcc2868d ago

I really can't see Natal being $50, with a wifi adapter at 100.

GIJeff2867d ago

since they decided to make the Natal use the 360's CPU instead of its own built in unit, the Natal is only limited by the 360's CPU. Unfortunately, that means it is very limited because the 360's CPU must do the game AND Natal calculations. Don't expect games that are 4 player to be anything more than what you see with Wii sports. And definitely don't expect to use Natal on existing games. We will see much more visually impressive motion games on the PS3 since it has WAY more CPU to play with and the eye motion is easier to compute as well.

Dev8 ing2867d ago

I disagree anytime they have a monopoly on something they jack the prices up as you listed HDD and Wifi but their battery packs are priced in the same range as other rechargable batteries (duracell etc).

+ Show (23) more repliesLast reply 2867d ago
Pennywise2868d ago

So, it is basically confirmed that Natal will be more expensive and lose.

We all know opposite of Patcher's word is the truth.

ActionBastard2868d ago

Maybe $80-100 for a Sony camera/motion controller bundle, but for owners of the Eye already, $40-50 controller is all we should be out. I really don't see Natal selling for anything under $100.

cereal_killa2868d ago

Is anyone really surprised that Patcher would say M$ would win I didn't even have to give this a hit to know what he would have said. Patcher is a joke and his stories shouldn't even be allowed on this site, and Pennywise your right Patchers predictions 95% of the time turns out to be the opposite of what he says Patcher = Bizzaro.

Godmars2902868d ago (Edited 2868d ago )

I don't see the wand costing $100. It will be $40~$50. An $80 twin pack with PSeye.

Really don't see why people think it will be more expensive.

@Below:
Why wouldn't it be $50 when the PSeye is $40? MS has to think about what the other guy has their add-ons priced at, at least in this one case.

Obama2868d ago

I predict Natal will be somewhere around 100-150. I really can't see it being at 50 bucks.

HighDefinition2868d ago

Natal is not gonna be $50, XBL cost more than that annually.

silvacrest2868d ago

if sony have learnt anything from this gen its that pricing their products high = failure while MS have always over priced their accessories so natal may follow that trend but saying that, natal is not "just another accessory"

my opinion is they will both be priced below 100$ simply because they have to be competitive and get their motion controls in homes and make any hardware money lost through shovelware....i mean motion games :P

+ Show (3) more repliesLast reply 2868d ago
Bodyboarder_VGamer2868d ago

It all depends on the performance. Because as awesome as Natal sound it'll not be cool if it lags... The same with the Sony motion controller. In what way are you going to put the camera so it reads everything you do? The edge of my HDtv is kinda circular so I cannot place it on top so where the heck can I place the camera so it goes directly at me?

Oner2868d ago

Um...how about underneath it on the edge of whatever the TV itself is on? Or how about maybe on a platform that they make to put center channel speakers on top of? Or you can even simply set it up only when you are going to use it on something like a small portable platform, chair or something similar? Seems like a bit of an excuse to me that you are giving as it can't be that impossible to figure out!

Dev8 ing2866d ago

Many people (like me) have wall mounted tvs. The last thing I want is a crappy looking camera (and both look like ass) making my setup look bad.

Unicron2868d ago

Winner - Not hardcore gamers.

Ravage272867d ago

whoever gives me Demon's Souls 2 with precise motion control wins :)

Rockox2868d ago

Motion controls? Don't give a crap.

W-k2868d ago

DO THE TRUFFLE SHUFFLE!!!!!!! :D