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Pachter's Podium: Natal Just $50, Will Outsell PlayStation Motion

IndustryGamers: Welcome to the newest edition of our monthly column with Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. Last month we covered some interesting ground, like why he believes a "Wii HD" is an absolute must for Nintendo, if the PS3 can take first place this holiday season and what the Apple iPod Touch and iPhone business means for the game industry.

Here's what's on the table in this edition:

•What pricing will we see on Project Natal and Sony's motion controller?
•Will Project Natal or Sony's motion wand succeed in grabbing the Wii audience?
•How has the reception for the PSPgo really been?
•Are any big acquisitions or mergers coming soon?
•What does the Walmart used games business mean for the industry?

Click on through the following pages for the latest insights from Pachter...

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Tinted Eyes2983d ago

Well that automatically means it wont be $50

randomwiz2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

he bases his prediction on the fact that Microsoft is willing to subsidize it, and he thinks that its only a camera, and that the wand is a camera and controller, but he doesn't know its a high tech camera with some on board processing power which is pretty expensive.

Real Gambler2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

It has been said many time already. Distance sensors, expensive camera and built in processing currently as big as the processor in the 360 itself! Best case scenario is still currently $200 and even then, Microsoft would have to sell it below cost!

Wow, this guy can pull funny predictions out of is a......

Now, I'm not an ANALyst like him, but if what he say for next year: "I said a $249.99 Xbox 360 with a 250Gb hard drive and Natal included. " is pretty much impossible. Unless for some reason, the 360 and a 250gb drive suddenly sell for $50 Wow, this guy really think that Natal is just a PS2 Eye Toy!

JokesOnYou2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

I think this time he's right and wrong, I mean sooner or later he's got to get something right, just by accident.

Natal will outsell PS Dildo Motion, but it will cost around $125-$150, not $50, I garuantee it won't cost more than 150, remember you heard it here first(Take that Pachter)....and yes there will be 360 Natal bundles of course, that part is like predicting it will rain sometime next year in Seattle, I mean who doesn't know that. lol

JOY

edit,vvvv Real Gambler good point, I agree, I should have said Natal games will outsell competing ps motion games. I definitely think with the unique kind of gameplay experience Natal can add to games, once devs start releasing some big games that take advantage of Natal I think they will easily outsell games that utilize sony's ps motion.

Real Gambler2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

1- Selling Natal for $150? Possible. After all, even if it cost $200 to produce, Microsoft will push this thing like crazy to extend the life of the 360 as much as possible. They won't mind loosing money on it.

2- Bundling it? DEFINITIVELY. It's much easier to subsidize it if you bundle it with thing you can make money out of it. So YES, a 360, Natal, and even a free game or two... May still be a bit expensive though, particularly when this is aiming for the non hardcore gamers.

3- Outselling the PS3 wand? Beware of what you say... Remember, the Wand will be cheaper. Many people already have the camera. Most people will buy 2, and maybe even 4... (and there will likely be bundles with the camera included) So based on number of unit sold, Sony will sell more wands! Now, based on amount of $ sold, then yes, Natal being more expensive will likely bring more "sales". But profit wise, it won't be the case! If as expected Microsoft sell them below manufacturing cost, ouch! On the other side, the wand is a relatively simple controler, like the Sixaxis or the 360 controler. The markup on those things is outrageous! (Every controler sold bring in a huge profit margin). So expect the same from the Wand. It will probably cost about $10 to manufacture and sell for $59 when it comes out. Just pure gravy! And they may end up selling up to 4 of them for all the install base!

WenisWagon2983d ago

Well that's obvious, but still thanks for pointing it out.

gaffyh2983d ago

I'm like 90% sure that Natal won't cost $50, it will be at least $99 I think. But regarding the sales of it, maybe, MS already had the hype train going with a crappy live demo and smoke and mirrors milo at E3. So it's safe to assume they'll hype the crap out of the thing when it releases.

I'm gonna wait to see if there is actually a game worth buying for either motion controller, but I'd place my bets on Sony having the better games for it, if I was a betting man. Why? 15+ first party studios, and 15+ second party studios, as well as third party Wii ports.

N4G king2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

lol
yah patcher what ever you say

Aaron Greenterd2983d ago

Name one of our accessories that has ever retailed for under $50...

That's what I thought...

FragMnTagM2983d ago

Charging Station: 29.99, Battery pack and 9 ft. cable: 19.99, Just rechargable battery: 11.99, Wired Controller: 39.99, Vision Camera: 39.99, wired headset: 19.99, messenger kit: 29.99, universal media remote: 19.99, component av cable: 39.99, HDMI cable: 49.99, and 512mb memory unit: 29.99.

While some of these accessories are a bit expensive, they are all under 50 dollars, so STFU and quit trolling.

phosphor1122983d ago

Like an RGB camera, a IR LED and camera, along with a processor, I think it'll cost more than $50. Just a hunch.

Christopher2983d ago

His logic doesn't make sense. Natal is a single item, but just because it's 'fewer' items compared to buying two motion controllers doesn't mean it will be cheaper.

starvinbull2983d ago (Edited 2983d ago )

Natal will obviously be more successful but if M$ want hardcore gamers to be the foundation of their console then they haven't developed the best device to ensure that.

The PS3 wand doesn't in any way remove accuracy intuitiveness or responsiveness meaning that most PS3 games out today could benefit from it and some would be be improved by it (Lair, Killzone 2, Ratchet and Clank).

M$ will bring more consumers to their console but not the "heavy users" that play GOW type games and buy upwards of 50 games over the course of a console cycle. I may be wrong but many of the 360 core base may be alienated by natal and buy PS3s instead. If I were in charge that'd be my worry.

Ju2982d ago

I could, however, imagine, that Natal could become cheaper then the "Sphere" (or Wand or w/e). Simply due to the fact, that as soon as you have final silicon, it will have less parts then a camera + controller, even though the interior might be more complex and the R&D effort to make it work is unproportional higher. But given MS's deep pockets, the initial costs to develop the thing might be just a write off in their books.

What will be left is the actual BoM and in that respect the number of components used. I could imagine, those are still more expensive then the PSEye (is standard-cheap) plus controller (this can't be much cheaper then a DS3, which is around $60 right now - OK, camera can be 0 for what it's worth today; it generated its ROI already), but as a sum it might be easier to produce Natal (the SW can be a custom single chip doing all that, and will depend how cheap this chip can be produced).

+ Show (10) more repliesLast reply 2982d ago
James Bond2983d ago

Yo Pachter, you forgot to add another 0 at the end of the Natal's price.

Bellcross2983d ago

So I could get payed for sitting on my ass and right articles that are 99% wrong, He must love his job.

Thoreau2983d ago

how does he keep his job????

ShabzS2983d ago

simple.. you make up 10 random guesses everymorning and hope that atleast 1 is right by the end of the year...

_vx2983d ago

what is his job? :/

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