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Can the PS3 overtake the 360/Wii in 2010

gorillajumpers.com pontificates on whether or not the momentum Sony has achieved with the price cut will shoot them to a win in 2010.

"In the last month Sony has started one of the greatest comebacks in console history and is now currently riding a wave of positive press and all around warm and fuzzies into the holiday season. Will this momentum continue into 2010, and is it possible that Sony will climb out of the cellar and overtake Microsoft and Nintendo? Totally, well sort of!"

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Maddens Raiders2980d ago

...it should read, "When will the PS3 take over the 360/Wii"?

I agree with you tinted-eyes...2011 to early 2012

FlipMode2980d ago

Oh its definitely taking out the 360, Wii I don't know about.

randomwiz2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

sony has an amazing title every month from oct to march
oct - uncharted 2
nov - mw2(this game will increase sales for both systems)/eyepet(US)
dec - gt5?
jan - MAG
feb - EDIT: heavy rain?
mar - gow3

Smacktard2980d ago

In lifetime sales:

Wii? Never.
Xbox 360? Quite possibly.

For 2010 only:
Wii? Extremely doubtful.
Xbox 360? Probable.

Sales seem to have dropped off a lot after the first week rush of PS3slims.

SnuggleBandit2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

@randomwiz

Heavy rain, also Quantum theory could be in there too!

Edit: ahh canadian guy beat me to it!

Komega2980d ago

Wii never? Why, I do not agree with the idea that the Wii is untouchable at this point. The PS3 will not close the gap in 2010 but I think in 2011 there is a good chance. The Wii is not going to age well at all and needs a new iteration to remain at the top of the heap in my humble opinion.

The Killer2980d ago

i think ps3 will overtake wii in 2011 or 2012.

it all depend on how sony do their game

Sangria2980d ago

@1.3: For February, it's likely to be Heavy Rain, the beta-testing ends in late December.
It seems Sony is following Microsoft's 2006 path, with a heavy title every month.

cmrbe2980d ago

Sony only cares about supporting the PS3 for 10 years at least to sell at least 100 million PS3 like they have done with the PS1 and PS2.

The question people really has to ask is. "Can the wii and x360 remain on the market for 10 years to sell 100 million units each? ".

Sony is averaging 10 million a year initially with a price of $599 now 299 which is the launch price of the PS2 beileve it or not. Their major fracnhise are still not out yet. They have the most advance console of the 3 and has more studios and franchise than both MS and Nin combine. What i am saying is that the PS3 is set to outlast both the wii and x360.

Once the PS3 reaches 199 and all its major franchise are out. This average will be more than 10 million a year. Again its a marathon, not a sprint.

Megatron082980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

I think people are readin to much in to the sales spike of the price drop. One all the numbers are uncomfirmed and plus they vary greatly for site to site reports from 500,000 to 190,000 in the 1st week. One site reported it only sold 40,000 in the uk. Of course the number everyone seem to be running with is the 500,000. The spike is already shown sign for dropping greatly. Personaly I think should wait at least till wee see the 1st month (2-3 month be best) sales for the NPD and the offiical UK sales traking (forget what its called). Before trying decide anything

There is no way in hell ps3 will over take 360 and the wii in 2010. Japan has helped sony a lot and they are starting to chip away at he 360's lead but I think the 360 is still up 9million at this point. The wii has over a 20 million lead. MS and Nintendo are not just goin to sit around either and be like "oh sure sony we'll do nothing so you can sell more ps3 for the next year"

However 2010 looks to be a great year for gamers. It looks like Sony and MS will be going all out in 2010 and even 3rd have some of their
best titles (bioshock 2, Mass Effect 2, FF13) coming in 2010

cmrbe I dount the ps3 will sale 100 million I dont any of them will. I think the 360 could easily make it to 10 years. Natal is coming out 5 years into the 360 life. I dount will see a new xbox till around 2013-2014. As for the wii its hard to say. Nintendo yet to do a single price drop on it. i bet a wii cost around 50-75 to make and they are selling it at 250 so they are making a killing. Why stop supporting something if you make that much money on it right ?

"Sony is averaging 10 million a year initially with a price of $599"

really its going into its 4 year and has yet to sell 25 million. Thats some fun math you got there

dustgavin2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

360 is dead in Japan and soon in the US. Microsoft will bail on the 360 like they did with the first Xbox.

FlipMode2980d ago

Its like a 7 mil lead dude.

karan86242980d ago

360? Yeah, it can sell more than 360. Wii? Maybe further in the future, buts its gonna take more than just one more year for it to take over the huge numbers the wii has right now

HolyOrangeCows2980d ago

It's starting to catch up in software sales (Not total, but by ratios and even by monthly sales), It's already ahead of the 360 in sales by ratio of years, but the Ps3 is FAR from overtaking the Wii.

I'd say it could possibly overtake 360 monthly sales, considering the price drop and big popularity from the PS2. As for the Wii, it probably won't be around for as long, so the PS3 (and 360) are probably going to overtake total hardware sales in the future.

I did not murder him2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

Bwua ja jajajjajaja hahahahahaha

LOL 360's biggest year is 2010 packed with AAAs and Natal, sure.

SWORDF1SH2980d ago

PS3 released in Nov 06 in Japan and US
Mar 07 in Europe

So yes 10 million a year is about right.

RememberThe3572980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

If the PS3 is going to become the market leader Sony cannot afford to make that same mistakes it's made in the past.

They need to be on top of their game with huge(and effective) advertising support and a continuation of a steady flow of quality first-party software(but I think that's a given).

Sony can do it, they've defied logic before(PS1), and they can do it again. But frankly, they have to take the states back. MS has fed on peoples ignorance and pride here in the states and it's garnered them a strong following.

However, if your a fan of the PlayStation the leaked document from SEGA as to put a smile on your face. It shows that they are on the grind, and are willing to do business that they have not done yet this gen.

And that is what is going to make the difference. If Sony can continue to get third-party publishers on their side(accept Activision, they can kick rocks lol) they will be able to take back the industry.

It is going to be on hell of a chess match between MS and Sony(Nintendo is off in it's own little world), and I can't wait to see how this plays out.

@I did not murder him: Good to see you back, I missed you illogical comments :)

mint royale2980d ago

Even asking about the wii is stupid. According to figures from Sony and Nintendo the wii has around a 27 million lead since they were simultaneously launched. Sony project to get to around 34 million by March 2010 whilst Nintendo project to be around 68 million sold. Erasing a gap of 30 million will never happen imo (especially seeing as the wii has NEVER had a price cut). If it does happen it will take atleast 4 years.

TheBand1t2980d ago

And 2010 also has Sony bringing AAA games and their own motion control. What of it?

cmrbe2980d ago

The PS3 is not even 3 years old. Its even much younger in Europe.

MS is using last gen tech. How do you expect them to survive in the HD era in the next 6 years?. Now all MS main franchise will see a sequal soon. MS can't survive on multi-plats alone. Natal we don't know what impact it will have on the market. I doubt motion motion games can sustain console sales for longer periods. We are already hearing Nin talk about wii HD.

The PS3 will sell at least 100 million at the current rate they have been selling. PS3 at its most weakest is selling on par with the PS1. You are going to see the PS3 sell on the same level as the PS2 once it reaches $199 in another 2-3years.

I did not murder him2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

PS3 price drop figure are always huge they soon return to normal based on real demand. And yes the PS3 being closer to $200 will help regardless of the obvious spike PS3 supporters are exaggerating as a consumers trend shift. So agreed!

ultimolu's comment #5 is a result of her knowing these theories are embarrassingly far fetched.

I'd be surprised is Sony could sell 8 to 9 million PS3's without the 360 even being on the market in 2010 or 2011 lol.

In most of the west Natal will negate any Sony progress for sure it will make the Wiimote revolution look like warm-ups.

This is the same gut feeling I had when I predicted MGSR was coming to the 360

FlipMode2980d ago

I'm actually surprised at the amount of disagrees I got for stating that its a 7 mil lead. O.o

eagle212980d ago

In just 10 weeks, all of these weekly hundreds of thousands that PS3 has been outselling 360 worldwide will multiply to millions. If you don't know basic math, here is an example: 300,000 * 10 weeks = 3,000,000. All PS3 has to do is continue to outsell 360 worldwide weekly. This is highly likely with huge titles like Final Fantasy XIII, Uncharted 2: Among Thieves, God Of War Collection and Gran Turismo 5. :)

Sept. 1 to about 2 weeks before Thanksgiving will be the first 10 weeks of huge PS3 gains on 360. By the holidays, PS3 will have sold millions more than 360 and December will be a worldwide PS3 victory. I can see PS3 outselling 360 in December worldwide by 2 million units. I can see PS3 overtaking 360 lifetime sales easily by May 2010. :)

rockleex2980d ago

With this article.

Megatron08 says the PS3 is already going into its fourth year. Talk about funny math.

TheBand1t2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

Uh, since when has an Add-on EVER gone on to be a new revolution?

You're kidding yourself if you think Natal will have the impact of the Wii.

EDIT: And your 'gut feeling' also said that Lost Planet 2 was going to be 360 exclusive, so try again, failure.

ReviewsArePolitics2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

2012 Wii

And that's a big if, assuming everything is constant... which is not.

@below,

lol, just lol

2980d ago
TheBand1t2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

If motion tech on 360 is the future in Japan, then 5k sales of the 360 a week isn't gonna cut it.

RememberThe3572980d ago

That is exactly what I was talking about above. Thank you.

FlipMode2980d ago

The PS3 slim First day sales was actually bigger than when the PS3 first launched.

And your pretty crazy you think an Add on peripheral like Natal changes the game, like add ons ever have before.................

I did not murder him2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

Relax I was just pointing it's unlikely Sony could outsell the 360 by 600 thousand to 700 a month.

I'm sure Sony will have some AAA games and other games painted as AAAs that have been announced years before launch but as of right now(has been revealed for the 360) Natal's lineup and:

Mass Effect 2
Splinter Cell Conviction
Alan Wake
Fable 3
Crackdown 2
Halo Reach
Blue Dragon 2

Will most likely not allow Sony to outsell the 360 by half a million or more consoles a month assuming it will even beat or catch up at all after the spike goes away.

The-Warranty2980d ago

Damn nasim must have really got under you 360 fans skin for you guys to still be talking about him

Ju2980d ago

I make a bold statement here and claim Natal will be the biggest failure in gaming history. LOL. We'll find out next year.

Anyway, everybody seams to ignore that the Wii is indeed the biggest looser at this very moment. They might still be ahead in absolute numbers, but the kids and casual crowd is running thin. I predict the biggest drop for Nintendo. Its a fad after all. They need a HD console and a price drop. Natal will release when the motion fad will fade out. Tough luck.

DasBunker2980d ago

LMAO @ MS a heavy title every month..

Sangria2979d ago (Edited 2979d ago )

*sigh*
Yes, for the launch of the Xbox 360, Microsoft was setting a big title for every month.

In November 2005, PGR3. In December, Perfect Dark Zero.
In January 2006, Dead or Alive 4. In March, Fight Night Round 3 and Oblivion. In April, Tomb Raider Legend and Battlefield 2. In May, Hitman Blood Money. In June, Final Fantasy XI. In August, Saints Row. In September, Dead Rising. In October, Splinter Cell Double Agent. In November, Gears of War. In January 2007, Lost Planet. In February, Crackdown, etc...

So yes, until the release of PS3, Microsoft was planning a "big" release for (almost) every month among first and second party developers. And by big, don't understand "big sales" but "big hype" or "big fanbase".

And yes, when we see Sony's schedules, we can admit they are planning to release at least a big title per month, just like Microsoft did before. There is no shame or bias to say that neither it's a matter of interpretation. Only facts.

starchild2979d ago

@1.20 cmrbe

You console fanboys are funny. PS3 is old tech just like the 360 and they are almost exactly the same. The only difference is the bluray on the PS3, but the only value of that is storage space (that most games will never use any way).

NoBias2979d ago (Edited 2979d ago )

Sony is making good strides for sure but I seriously think the hardcore PS3 followers are underestimating things like Natal and Reach. If there is one thing that M$ knows how to do a million times better than Sony, it's Marketing. Straight up, Sony blows at it (in that they rarely ever do it). I still haven't seen anything on TV for MAG. The only UC2 commercial I've seen was on G4 (A lot of casuals don't even watch that channel).

Sony is still relying on their name to sell their games but that hasn't proven to be a smart business model at all when looking at how their past exclusives have sold compared to 360 exclusives. 360 exclusives murder Sony in sales and if we're talking about "overtaking" then I'm sure sales are the important factor. Someone said something on this site awhile back that was crazy true when you think about it: "A Halo game will outsell a Sony anything"

All I'm saying is that most of America are going to drop jaws at Natal. If so much of the world fiend over the Wii (and their less than responsive controls at the time) then you already know how this is going to blow up. I mean, did you see the news reaction at E3??? Yes, I know most of you are saying "Natal is whatever" or "Gimmick!" but you need to stop thinking about just "you" and think of the world as a collective whole.

Natal is going to blow the hell up (Whether it's worth it or not). Just watch, a lot of people will be eating their words this time next year. Microsoft may be the "devil" "sneaky" "evil" but one thing that they aren't is "stupid". People thought E3 would be a bust for M$ and they came away pretty much stealing the show and being the main thing on peoples mouths for the next month or so following. Their asses always have a plan.

I wouldn't make too bold of statements saying that Sony has or will win anything yet. 2010 is going to be pretty big... I'd be interested in who all would actually put money down on this bet versus just their fanboy words. I'd confidently put some of my money on M$.

iChaos Amongus2979d ago

No, not going to happen, and I'm willing to bet after MS and Nintendo make some moves next year, PS3 will be back in last place in sales. Even if no one made anymore moves it would be years before PS3 caught up. Some people don't understand how far behind PS3 is. In its second week of sales it barely doubled 360's sales....in only its second week! Obviously sales will continue to fall from there. I think we all know big moves will be made in 2010 by MS and probably Nintendo, Sony already made its move it has to sit on for the next 2-3 years.

Seriously, there is a very, very good chance that PS3 will be in last place in 2011/2012 when new consoles launch....even if there was no Natal/new Xbox/big advertising campaign next year. And there will be, Xbox 360 and Wii will be making the moves PS3 made this year, right back at PS3 next year, and it will fall behind again.

lh_swe2979d ago (Edited 2979d ago )

"Its like a 7 mil lead dude."

So?

Your point is that it won't overtake next year? Well of course not that would mean the PS3 would have to sell 7 million consoles on top of Microsofts yaerly sales, and while the PS3's holiday and future looks bright thats not realistic.

A year head start means exactly that, a head start in sales. The PS3 would have to start selling like the Wii to topple the 360 in a year or even two which I also doubt, however yearly sales? What about those?

Lately the PS3 has slowed in sales due to a much to high price point in a recession among things, bad advertising etc but it's still sold more per year on average.

vhero2979d ago (Edited 2979d ago )

Will somebody just remove I did not murder him's bubbles? He is nothing but a fanboy and never says anything constructive. As for taking over the 360 I think it's too early to tell we will see how the holiday season goes first especially with the price drop of 360 in US.

+ Show (39) more repliesLast reply 2979d ago
Kill Crow2980d ago

HAHAHAHAH, what joke, the sales didn't even last a week, after two weeks they're almost back to normal.

look at the august gap charts .... poor deluded droids

Carlton Banks2980d ago

That's August not September Sales, Before the Slim
God you guys are stupid

Kill Crow2980d ago (Edited 2980d ago )

It shows HOW BIG the gap is before any price drops / new models ...

over 8 million.

So, september 2009 to December 31st 2010 = 14 months

8,000,000 / 14 = roughly 570,000

So, that's half a million consoles for 14 months solid, even if microsoft selling STOPPED selling altogether ... which is isn't.

Do you realise how dumb you are.

Xlll2979d ago

You do know MS only posts "SHIPPED" numbers right?

starchild2979d ago

You do know that Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft only report shipped to retailers? That is what "sold" means to these companies. It means sold to retailers. Some of you are still spreading that old nonsense.

Xlll2979d ago

"You do know that Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft only report shipped to retailers? That is what "sold" means to these companies. It means sold to retailers. Some of you are still spreading that old nonsense."

They also count RRoD replacements as "shipped". Do the math on that one.

lh_swe2979d ago (Edited 2979d ago )

Since shipped consoles include replacements and only those sold to retailers...hmmm your argument starts to look frail in light of that.

PS3 still has had an overall greater attach rate than the 360 despite the 360 having a lower price point (in a recession no less, where price means a lot), there has been no official data released on how many replacements have been shipped but that could be quite a few. Not to mention that the 360 had a head start, better launch library and a really good online service.

The fact of the matter is that now that the PS3 is at $300 price point it is at a great value for money, great console plus a matured PSN (i.e it's so much better it's now in the same legue as LIVE) for free, bult in Blu-Ray, web browser and a stellar library of games now on par with the 360's and an even better line-up.

Only time will tell if the holiday numbers does it justice, but it won't sit this holiday out thats for sure and we already see that with games like Ratchet & Clank, Demon Souls and Uncharted 2 baby!

However the 360 has a stellar line-up too, with it's console defining title set to make a reappearance this holiday it's not ready to give up without a fight.

This is a close one.

+ Show (5) more repliesLast reply 2979d ago
BubbleSystemSuck2980d ago

never...
360 maybe.. if microsoft close the factoy

Komega2980d ago

@Tinted Eyes...That's my thought as well except I think 2011 will be the year that Sony closes the gap on Nintendo. I think it's a very real possibility that SOny hands Microsoft it's ass in 2010...and here comes the flames:)

starchild2979d ago

I'd be willing to make a bet with anybody here that the PS3 will not catch up to the 360 in 2010 and will never catch up to the Wii. Any takers?

MGOelite2980d ago

maybe the 360 at around august/september