Analysis: Will PS3 overtake Xbox 360 in 2011? (or: GameCube nears 40 million systems)

Matt Matthews from Gamasutra writes:

"Porter Novelli -- Sony's PR firm -- recently forwarded Gamasutra editors a link to a story at Total Video Games which extrapolates global shipments of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 over the next few years.

The upshot is that, according to the models, the PlayStation 3 [graph link] will have caught the Xbox 360 [graph link] by 2011 -- something that Sony would be quite happy to have people know about, of course.

Porter Novelli particularly cited the following..."

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Raf1k13393d ago (Edited 3393d ago )

PS3 overtaking the 360 in 2011 is a bit optimistic.

My prediction:
I think the PS3 will eventually overtake the 360s sales. Mainly because it is likely that the PS3s life will be longer than the 360s. When the new Xbox is released those with a 360 (and plenty without one) will most likely buy it leading to a drop in 360 sales while the PS3s will continue without too much change.

I think MS will continue to support the 360 for a while (the length of time depending on how well it continues to sell) but will focus on the new console.

Edit: I forgot about the price drop which if doesn't happen by the end of this year will have no doubt happened by 2011.
Maybe it's not so optimistic afterall.

Doctor_Doom3393d ago (Edited 3393d ago )

Even with big names like KZ2 and MGS4 . PS3 is still far behind the 360

Beast_Master3393d ago

I am pretty sure they are taking the price drop into account. As far as catching 360 it is very likely to happen considering everyone says they are going to get one if they drop the price. No one is saying that about 360. If they do get the price down to 299, I am sure even most 360 fanboys would agree PS3 would outsell the 360 if they where the same price. If they do get the price down to 299 and not outsell 360 then I will just give up.

sack_boi3393d ago

I doubt Microsoft is just going to sit there and let Sony phuck them in the ass. You're going to see a lot kick ass X360 bundles this fall (Modern Warfare 2, Left4Dead 2, Forza, Halo, bundles with two controllers and wireless headset...).

Let the Price War begin!
I so glad Sony is back in the game, now Microsoft will have to step up theirs.

Strikepackage Bravo3393d ago

are all these people, who don't even work for Sony, so anxious for PS3 to overtake 360?

The reason these estimates don't work is because they are based on current sales trends. If PS3 drops in price, MS will drop the price of the 360 premium, this will cause a huge boost in 360 sales. I dont see PS3 ever catching 360, not even after a new xbox comes out, because 360 will be super cheap by then and have a ton of great games in its catalog. Keep in mind only the arcade is super cheap right now, and relatively no one buys that one. The 360 people buy is still not at the 200 dollar sweet spot.

sack_boi3393d ago

I doubt Microsoft will drop the price this year though. I see them bundling the Premium or the Elite and then next fall they'll release the X360+ for $300.

Sonyslave33393d ago

people let not forget MS can drop the xbox 360 elite to $300 and pro to $289 see the price war always going to be in Ms favor.

Omega43393d ago

Its not going to happen cause MS said 2 E3's ago that they WILL outsell the PS3 this generation. So I doubt they will want to look stupid even if it means selling 360s at £1 each or (more likely) releasing a new console and declaring the previous generation finished with their console ahead.

ShabzS3392d ago

rolf ... haha... true true

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