In a presentation at the recent MI6 Game Marketing Conference, Jason Anderson, director of research for the International Development Group (IDG) revealed the research company's predictions for the near future of console sales, and Gamasutra was present to relay his intriguing predictions.
Anderson began by saying that the U.S. alone accounted for $10.2 billion in revenue, for both hardware and software this year. (Going forward, all statistics and numbers mentioned here concern the U.S. exclusively.) He pointed out a slow decline in PC retail sales, and a rise in handhelds. He then moved onto a particularly interesting topic, next-gen hardware sales.
For 2007, IDG predicts Microsoft dominance for the next two years in the North American next-gen game hardware market, at least in terms of installed base. The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.