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Xbox to Lead U.S. Market Through 2009

Kreher said in a phone interview with Next-Gen, "Basically the 360 had the first-mover advantage, so they already had 5 million units in US households before the PS3 and Wii launched. That's a lot of the reason why I think they'll end up winning."

He added that Xbox Live and its 6 million users have a lot to do with his projections. "Live's been a huge bonus for them," he said.

But doesn't Sony have a little something called PlayStation Home that is expected to go toe-to-toe with Xbox Live in October? Kreher said that although Home's concepts are attractive to more casual gamers, it won't be enough to sway them to spend $500-$600 on the console.

"The trick here is that the popularity of these online features depends on people," Kreher said. "It's great that Sony is going to have this service, but the reason Xbox Live is so popular is because you have 6 million-plus people on this thing. If the people don't come, it doesn't matter how great the service is."

Kreher made it clear that he believes Sony has to change its strategy if it wants to capture a larger chunk of US market share, and it goes beyond a strong online component.

"There's just not enough compelling software," he claimed. "I see Resistance, everyone can point to that, and MotorStorm is going to do very well. But you look outside and the third party software support just isn't that significant, and I think that part of that is because the installed base isn't doing that well."

Kreher compared the PS3 to the PSP, which has a relative lack of software support. "[PSP] is starting to fade away on us. I could see that happening on the PS3 before Sony even has a chance to show their stuff," he said.

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businessweek.com
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Sykro3767d ago

Let the flame wars commence in 3..2..1

sajj3163767d ago

the price of the PS3 hardware will stay at $500 - $600 all the way to 2009? Now, the 360 price will not stay at $300 - $480 either in 2009. This is going to be a dog fight folks! The winner will be who provides the best software.

Couple of things that I don't agree with ...

Point -> “Especially when there’s no assurance that Blu-ray is going to be used in games in any significant way.”

Counter Point -> PS3 already has games out that break the DVD limit of 9 GB. RFOM is one. I'm sure there are other first and second party PS3 games that will leverage the Blu Ray format. Multi-format games will always code/compress to least common denominator for size. If you are squeezing everything to DVD9, then why would Blu Ray be leveraged (whole other argument).

Point -> Kreher stated, “Speaking in terms of a holiday, if mom and dad are looking to buy a system for their kids, first of all they’ll see the $250 price tag versus $400 or $600. Then they’ll see those familiar titles like Mario, Mario Kart and even the licensed games from THQ, whether it’s Disney Pixar or Nickelodeon, those are the type of games that are going to sell well on that system.

Counter Point -> Kreher hasn't studied the history of the Nintendo 64 or Gamecube as he? Mass market appeal does not necessarily equate to success. How long can this Wii wave go?

I don't disagree that the 360 will have the majority marketshare (US Market) but not 2009. Look for the tide to shift to the PS3 corner mid-08. As the global installbase grows, I think the US market will follow the trend. This time around, I think it will be the US market playing follow the leader ala the Nintendo DS.

sajj3163767d ago

these type of people on a daily basis as I work in the financial sector as a consultant to hedge funds. The honest to God truth is that only a few of these analyst have a clue of what they are talking about when it comes to the electronic entertainment industry. They approach the analysis using a fundamental approach to investment management by looking at pretty charts and graphs and trying to predict trends based on this info. I spent a whole hour with a top analyst for a NY based hedge fund explaining what LittleBigPlanet and Home were and showed him some videos on my iPOD (gametrailers video postcasts). Honestly the only guy that has my respect is Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan. I actually love reading these types of articles so I can pick it apart.

Hayabusa 1173767d ago

"Counter Point -> PS3 already has games out that break the DVD limit of 9 GB. RFOM is one. I'm sure there are other first and second party PS3 games that will leverage the Blu Ray format. Multi-format games will always code/compress to least common denominator for size. If you are squeezing everything to DVD9, then why would Blu Ray be leveraged (whole other argument). "

See the thing is, even if games like Resistance take up 15 gig, it's not justified if you can't see the difference. Resistance has nothing gameplay or graphics wise we couldn't see on a DVD 9 360 game. We'll just have to wait and see.

sajj3163766d ago

I don't know if you've played RFOM but its a pretty large scaled game. Are the graphics prettier than Gears, thats a NO in in my opinion? Are the maps and missions (campaign mode) huge, I'd say so. I know this argument can go back and forth now .... but it will be less of an argument (DVD9 versus Blu Ray) two years from now. That is only my prediction. Compression techniques will only get you so far and space will certainly be an issue. I wonder what the size of Metal Gear Solid 4 and FFXIII will be. HD gaming = need for more space.

BIadestarX3767d ago (Edited 3767d ago )

It seems as if these prediction move even further. I remember people staying that the PS3 would dominate on day one. Then within 6 months, then 2007, then 2008, and now 2009. Isn't that already pretty much a entire console lifecycle? Anyways.. I think this people can be way off. It will take more than some guy looking at current numbers for this to happen. Sony can still come up with some crazy stuff that can put then on the top again (including price drop and better online service) but microsoft can also do the same (sprint update, iptv, etc). I guess we are going to have to wait and see. Microsoft can also drop the ball. I personally believe that they almost did with the new SKU, but let's see how it plays out.

For the most parts I agree with sajj316; specially the part where he says, "The winner will be who provides the best software."

Funky Town_TX3767d ago

I don't care who sales more units. All these guys a billionaires. Every second they get richer. Both consoles are good, and it is about the games. Price is important but Sony has loyalty. M$ will never beat Sony in console sales. When 09 comes it will be close to time for xbox 720 with DX11 support, but not PS4.

candystop3767d ago

Thats so true! All I really want myself are games and good ones so the numbers race isn't that imporant to me at all!

BIadestarX3767d ago

"M$ will never beat Sony in console sales" Do you mean in 2009? Cause as of today, and since the PS3 launch microsoft(360) IS beating Sony(PS3) in console sales; so I don't know where the "Will never" fits in since it already doing that.

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