Kreher said in a phone interview with Next-Gen, "Basically the 360 had the first-mover advantage, so they already had 5 million units in US households before the PS3 and Wii launched. That's a lot of the reason why I think they'll end up winning."
He added that Xbox Live and its 6 million users have a lot to do with his projections. "Live's been a huge bonus for them," he said.
But doesn't Sony have a little something called PlayStation Home that is expected to go toe-to-toe with Xbox Live in October? Kreher said that although Home's concepts are attractive to more casual gamers, it won't be enough to sway them to spend $500-$600 on the console.
"The trick here is that the popularity of these online features depends on people," Kreher said. "It's great that Sony is going to have this service, but the reason Xbox Live is so popular is because you have 6 million-plus people on this thing. If the people don't come, it doesn't matter how great the service is."
Kreher made it clear that he believes Sony has to change its strategy if it wants to capture a larger chunk of US market share, and it goes beyond a strong online component.
"There's just not enough compelling software," he claimed. "I see Resistance, everyone can point to that, and MotorStorm is going to do very well. But you look outside and the third party software support just isn't that significant, and I think that part of that is because the installed base isn't doing that well."
Kreher compared the PS3 to the PSP, which has a relative lack of software support. "[PSP] is starting to fade away on us. I could see that happening on the PS3 before Sony even has a chance to show their stuff," he said.