Another games analyst entered the fray today-A.G. Edwards' Bill Kreher. In this Next-Gen interview, he pegs the Xbox 360 to lead the US market through 2009 with 38 percent market share, followed by the Wii and PS3 with 34 and 28 percent respectively. But Sony says "Not so fast."
Kreher said in a phone interview with Next-Gen, "Basically the 360 had the first-mover advantage, so they already had 5 million units in US households before the PS3 and Wii launched. That's a lot of the reason why I think they'll end up winning."
He added that Xbox Live and its 6 million users have a lot to do with his projections. "Live's been a huge bonus for them," he said.
But doesn't Sony have a little something called PlayStation Home that is expected to go toe-to-toe with Xbox Live in October? Kreher said that although Home's concepts are attractive to more casual gamers, it won't be enough to sway them to spend $500-$600 on the console.
"The trick here is that the popularity of these online features depends on people," Kreher said. "It's great that Sony is going to have this service, but the reason Xbox Live is so popular is because you have 6 million-plus people on this thing. If the people don't come, it doesn't matter how great the service is."
Kreher made it clear that he believes Sony has to change its strategy if it wants to capture a larger chunk of US market share, and it goes beyond a strong online component.