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Report: IBM researcher says Moore's Law at end

Moore's Law is maxing out. This is an oft-made prediction in the computer industry. The latest to chime in is an IBM fellow, according to a report.

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Scrupuless3355d ago

To think we could always continue to improve any technology at such a rate was and is foolish.

RememberThe3573355d ago (Edited 3355d ago )

It's ambitious. Like the guy said, new technologies are coming forward. To think that technological development will slow down is foolish. Some one somewhere will always be pushing boundaries and coming up with newer and better ways to do things.

matthewkeates: I happen to disagree. I honestly think that technology will forever improve. I do not see any point of human history when technological improvement stopped. It is indeed foolish to think that the technologies that we have now can forever be improved upon, but it is not foolish to think that there will be new technologies to that will allow for even greater advancement. Call me a dreamer, but I see the future as boundless.

Scrupuless3355d ago (Edited 3355d ago )

I agree that we need ambition to push the forward the boundaries of human possibilities. However we should not blindly believe in an unfounded idea limitless technological advances, there are limits to what can be done, are we close to them at this point in time? I contend to not know the answer to that question, however that does not change the notion that to assume that technology will infinitly improve is in fact foolish.

I would also like to point out that I never said technoogical advancement would slow down, however it is in the realm of possibility.

Guitardr853355d ago

...But rather the way of things. Technology has always improved at an ever increasing rate. It has for thousands of years. Look at the life of a 16th century European and you can see that their life was pretty much the same when they died than when they were born...no real changes (and that's pretty much what was expected). Fast forward to now and our lives fundamentally change every few decades or so. Look at the past 20...internet, wireless information technologies...medical advances...these all make our lives very different then earlier in our lives. "I remember when we didn't have TV and had to walk 10000 miles to school in the snow" ~random old person.

The same concept is applied to computing technology. This rule is called the Law of Accelerating Returns which states that technology ALWAYS begets ever faster and better technology. To the person above who said that we are stupid to think that we will always get better technology at the rate we have been, I challenge him to find ANY POINT IN HUMAN HISTORY (or biological history for that matter) where this isn't true. If you plot major human advances along a regular line curve (not logarithmic) you see not only an exponential curve, but an exponential increase on said exponential curve.

Just because a guy at Intel says Moore's Law is coming to an end with current technology doesn't mean we're done making computers better. Educate yourself!!!!

Research memristors and quantum logic gates, most likely the next step in computing which makes todays supercomputers look like the vacuum tube computers of old.

It took billions of years for live to evolve from a single celled organism to a multi-celled, but only a thousand years for an organism called homo-Sapian Sapian to start creating its own life (genetics)!!!

Kakkoii3355d ago

Nobody thought we could keep making chips smaller forever. So no one is surprised lol. Obviously we can only make the chips as small as the atomic structure would allow. 22nm has already been done. And 16 and 11nm are on the way. Although from 16 down, chip makers will be facing problems of quantum tunneling. And will need to move onto new materials, such as graphite. Once we max out chip size, which would be a chip who's gates are only 1 or 2 atoms thick. We will have to move onto new technology, such as a chip that uses optics to transfer data around the chip, increasing speeds further. We will be making 3D chips so we can pack a whole lot more power in a small amount of space. There will be a slow period of advancement in these times until we can reach a viable quantum computer.

It is amazing that we are getting close to working on the Atomic scale.

Scrupuless3355d ago (Edited 3355d ago )

@guitard

technology has not always improved and in fact devoluition is possible... we need look no further then the roman empire and all it "advanced" tech during its time that was lost due many variable reason, I will allow that eventually humans caught up and far surpassed there standard "tech". However I believe this highlights our ability to not only expand our tech but also lose tech due too many outside factors. Again i never claimed we are at the end of human technological advancement but i will say that it is foolish to believe that technology is limitless, there is no power in this universe that is infinte.

I would also like to point out that that the law of accelarating returns is a theory and is not termed as a rule. This theory is highly debatable and is certainly not set in stone. However on that note i do somewhat believe in the singularity concept but that does not mean that technology will always grow exponentially. I still contend there must be limits to technology and as I said before wehther we are at those limits or not i dont claim to know.

Side note homospaiens have been evolving for far greater time then a thousand years. So please check your "fact" before stating them as such.

Guitardr853355d ago

...At Matt...Touchette! That really is a valid point, though that devolution was wrought by war, bad economics, and ignorance rather than a limit in technology. I guess I should have phrased it as "technology in and of itself ever increases when free of outside influences". I mean I think we can both agree that we would have fusion power by now if only there was enough money being thrown at it!

EXCLUSIVEGAMER3355d ago

there are no limits. limits are created by simpleminded people who think they "CAN'T" do something.

EXCLUSIVEGAMER3355d ago

think about this: had crysis come out 25 years ago, people would of thought the crysuit too far fetched to be reality.

Space travel? same thing. marine travel? people used to believe the world was square, like a map and i f you reached the edges you would fall off.

Its actually correlated to human understanding.

Time travel to most of us is still out of the question/ yet there are people working on this for decades now.

we dont understand it, so its unfeasible to us. to those that do understand, its within their grasp they just havent reached it yet

rockleex3355d ago

Physical limitation.

There comes a point where you can no longer shrink a processor chip. Probably the smallest you can ever shrink a chip is to the size of a couple atoms.

Unless scientists find a way to utilize quantum mechanics for their technology.

But even then, there's a limit to quantum and everything in this universe... or is there? >:D

Ju3355d ago

BTW: Timetravel...like UFOs always seam to land in the US, it seams nobody ever went back in time from the future - or we possibly would know by now...

swinesucker3354d ago

the gutenberg press was in the 1500s

although I agree not much happened in the 16th century scientifically

but many innovations were made with architecture and certain aspects of art

andyo133354d ago

but not the limit of computing power. just cus we can't fit any more space into our hard drive doesnt mean its going to stop there in terms of space. there will simply be a new way of storing data. hell maybe one day we'll be able to store data on our tables in the wood itself. but.

remember how consoles used to be all about bits. well we made it to 64 bit but then we went back to 32 bit and have stayed there for years. the ps3 is 32 bit, the ps1 is 32 bit. it uses different tech to get greater graphics and performance.

moores law isnt at an end at all.

Kakkoii3354d ago

@EXCLUSIVEGAMER: Wrong, there are things that are impossible. For example, can you jump to the moon right now? No? Didn't think so.

Over time we have come to understand more an more about matter and physics. We smash particles at near the speed of light to see what they are made of. When you get down to the very core of what makes up everything, it's energy. Our understanding is good enough to start claiming what is most likely impossible. We KNOW it's impossible to keep shrinking the size of a chip. Because the size of atoms are the limitation to that. Quantum computers are the next big step, with there being no downsizing with quantum computers. Just more Qubits being added. There may be one or 2 better technologies FAR down the road after quantum computers. It's hard to know for sure. Because yes we still don't know EVERYTHING. But we can make a pretty good guess in these times. Were not in the old days when we knew very little.

Also, time travel isn't possible. At least not into the past. Because time is not something that can be traveled through. That's the childish view of Time. Time is merely a measurement of events that happen in our universe. It is not a dimension or some force like gravity. It is a man made idea and structure for organization.

Now time travel into the future could theoretically be possible, but not in the sense one would think. It wouldn't be that your actually traveling into the future instantly, cause that is impossible. But you would be frozen so that you are no longer experiencing life. When you are reawoken, you are in the future. Seemingly instant to you.

+ Show (11) more repliesLast reply 3354d ago
Kevin McCallister3355d ago

Love that guy. Just "borrowed" two of his books earlier today from work. I'm just not going to return them.

phosphor1123355d ago

I remember first learning about him...on PBS xD

Finalfantasykid3354d ago

I have Hyperspace and Physics of the Impossible w00t.

Also it should be noted that it was suspected that Moore's law would no longer hold true before multi-core processors. Now that we have dual/quad... core processors, it has lenghtened the life of Moore's law. However there will be a limit to how far silicon can go, it will reach it's limit and new materials will have to be used, or a complete overhaul will have to be made with digital circuits. Quantum computers are showing massive potential, I can't wait for the day when they become available, though that could be a while :P

Mutley4163355d ago

The Trekie in me also thinks that our tech will continue-

Kinetix3355d ago

We will most likely be dead before this happens.

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