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Pachter: "This is the Last Console Generation"

At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts' predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof.

"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps with HD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it'll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there's no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won't allow it. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he says, pointing to the fact that they're already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it," he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future.

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thebudgetgamer3067d ago (Edited 3067d ago )

that said sony was going to release a ps3 with no blu-ray? lol

:) edit: i think dr cox has something to add
http://www.youtube.com/watc...

facepalm3067d ago

^-^ Well if the Mayans are right and the world ends in 2012 then he will be right due to technicality.

BkaY3067d ago

we hate HHG but somehow this guy get through....

has he even been right about anything.....(an honest question)

peace

Tomdc3067d ago

This guy will have read one article about the "onlive" thing and bang he works his dodgey (for want of a better word, because there is nothing skillfull about what he does!) skills, giving us this bull statement! Honestly it sickens me!

BattleAxe3067d ago

Microsoft - will probably not make another console and will instead focus on PC gaming and digital downloads. I still believe that Microsoft will be a force for many years in gaming. The Live network will continue for many many years.

Sony - will continue to make consoles and games. Sony's grand plan as an "electronics " maker is to manufacture consoles, TVs, and handheld devices that all tap into the playstation network. Also Sony's big investment in consoles has alot to do with Blu-Ray, and I don't see Sony stopping their support for it.

Nintendo - is a console maker at its heart. Almost all of Nintendos consoles have been very successful. Nintendo thrives on their very own gaming peripherals like the Wii Mote, the Wii Fit balancing board and going back to the NES, the Duck Hunt gun. They make alot of money on their consoles which is arguably the biggest part of their business seeing as how their attach rates are super low and casual gamers don't spend tons of money on software. Nintendo will be making consoles for many years to come.

Sharingan_no_Kakashi3067d ago

Oh wait ... Pachter said it? Okay then no worries.

*goes back under bridge*

Bnet3433067d ago

lol bubbles to TheHater, oh man that was too good, *wipes tear*

Doppy3067d ago

I agree with the other guys, there will be another console generation and it won't start until 2012. I've said this a long time ago, and I still stand by it.

Omegasyde3067d ago

Hmm,

He really thinks cloud gaming is going to be the norm? Consoles won't have better specs?

Say hello to the answer to cloud gaming called the Wii-mote.
Every Console will incorporate a motion controller in some sort, because you can't simulate that in cloud gaming. Wow. He gets a 6 digit salary, and he says moronic crap like this? How is still employed?

Pachter should STFU.

pain777pas3067d ago

Palms to the face people. This is ridiculous. More Mr Webush Morgan. When will he know his role and shut his mouth?

Sarcasm3067d ago

LOL @TheHater

Straight to the point. No need for me to post.

SaiyanFury3067d ago (Edited 3067d ago )

Uh huh...last console generation. Sure. Excuse me while I put palm to face...

@ The Hater

Hehehe, that's a classic line from Heckler.

Montreafart3067d ago

He hit the nail on the head. There probably will be new consoles. But don’t expect anything before 2014 at the earliest.
Simply said, no manufacturer is going to produce a new console when developers are still making money on the current platforms because they are SO powerful (well, PS3 is) that current technology allows developers to still pump mindblowingly good looking games.

That is simply a fact. Upgrading to new technology simply means more costs for developers but why would they do it when the PS3 can handle everything they throw at it.

And with online and digital content prolonging game cycles and replayability, you simply won’t find new consoles to be economically efficient.

I have stated this over and over again. This current console generation is not the same as last when you don’t have DLC and barely any online gaming. And even then last gen lasted 10 years (well, again, PS2 did. The competitors should be banned for cutting support). All the signals point at PS3 having a FIFTEEN year life cycle.
Which leaves us to the next question. Fanboys disagree because if the above is true, then Sony is in the best position. They have Blu Ray which can go up to 200GIGs if necessary and PS3 still supports it, free online, HARDDRIVE with every PS3 and incredibly hard to code for CELL that is superior to anything on the market, allowing for slower development cycles.
360 can’t even run half a day without overheating. PS3 is simply prepared for this challenge. 360 is not. And that’s why all the fanboys disagree. Because they are on the losing side and its convenient to just ignore the truth and pretend it don’t exist. Aka living in denial like all these fanboys have been doing for 3 years.

Sooner or later, reality is going to catch up to them though.

SL1M DADDY3067d ago

He is definitely off his rocker on this one. Talk about crazy.

Anon19743067d ago

First off, history has proven Michael Pachter right far more often than he's wrong. Word around financial circles for the last year has been that Microsoft is considering sitting out the next console generation. It doesn't look like they'll ever break even on the 360 before the end and that's two generations in a row with no profits to show for it when all the dust settles. Financial analysts had predicted MS to sit out the next gen and focus on their traditional strength, software (can't believe I just said that) or to do what Shane Kim suggested last year and put out some sort of cheaper, digital distribution console following the "less is more" example that's printing money for Nintendo.
Question is, we need to get our gaming fix from somewhere. Everyone's not going to magically have a super PC connected to their TV's that stream games in the next 4 years so if someone is going to step up with "the" next console for everyone to develop on, who's it gonna be?

ZuperAmazingCooKie3067d ago (Edited 3067d ago )

Even if costs are rising, new machines don't necessarily mean rising costs. Correlation doesn't mean causation. The reason games have risen in terms of costs is because publishers themselves have raised the bar through more expensive games. Sure, machines have enabled them to do so, but just because new machines enable them to do more it doesn't mean they're forced to pay more. That's why 3rd party middleware use is being used a lot this generation and will keep growing, in order to keep costs down.

Where he may be right is that console makers will probably keep the architecture for next-gen consoles as similar as possible as this gen and as easy to use. Also, they will probably move in other directions as well aside of horsepower like the Wii did to keep things fresh, and that's how it's going to be when tech reaches its peak if it ever does. People want interactive entertainment and so an interactive entertainment industry will always have a niche to fill.

umair_s513067d ago

I agree with Pachter on some level, the PS3 is currently using around 60% of it's potential, with that said we are seeing some incredible graphics like Killzone 2. Now imagine the graphics quality with the PS3 pushed to limits (That would be some bloody good graphics), thrown in ever improving firmware and Dev kits/ engines, this generation for PS3 could well last into 2016. My point is, if you want a next gen game to surpass these graphics, you need a lot of capital, Only bigger publishers could afford these to make these next gen titles, so this generation should last much longer, at least 3 years more IMO.

TheDude2dot03066d ago

He has a point. The recession will make the console makers reluctant to release a new console. However, this is NOT the last console generation. I'm expecting the consoles' lives to be prolonged until the economy gets better.

IcarusOne3066d ago

Thank you. Sincerely. My very dull day has been elevated by your awesome naivete.

+ Show (20) more repliesLast reply 3066d ago
KionicWarlord2223067d ago

well he has some good points...if this is true then this is very sad :(

Omegasyde3067d ago

None of them are valid.

Technology ALWAYS gets better (graphics) but ALWAYS gets cheaper.

I.e. a $512 pc graphics card day 1 ~299

3 months later - 199.
1 year later - 129.

Console development is the same way, with people picking up short cuts or licensing game engines for cheaper methods to making the end product. If anything the future of game development will be utilizing pre made engines (unreal, Cryengine, Phyre engine, etc).

madpuppy3067d ago (Edited 3067d ago )

There are a bunch of reasons that make this unrealistic, The first one, mainly being that people generally are not satisfied with the way things are. I don't want to upgrade my PS3 to a newer console now but, I hope to eventually move to a console that is many times more capable than the PS3 eventually. Just think of a Playstation that has 4 gigs of ram, 2 or 3 cell processors and a new generation video chip set.That go's for the Xbox as well, If you could replace the 360 with something that is considerably more powerful.

I don't think anybody here will disagree with me on that point.

Everything shows it age eventually, the PSX now looks weak and old, the PS2 is better than the PSX but, still a machine that is limited in it's ability. Our perceptions change and the PS3/360 will look like legacy hardware eventually.

kevnb3066d ago (Edited 3066d ago )

I really cant see new consoles coming out next year, but you never know. In the end though, it would be foolish to put out a new console until the economy starts improving.

1 HiT KiLLZ3067d ago

Yeah ok what ever makes you sleep at night patcher you f*#ker.

deathray3067d ago

You are obviously a deep thinker...

theKiller3067d ago

this means the opposite will happened!!!

we will have the beginning of a new generation where there will be fierce competition by companies which will benefit us all!!

evilmonkey5013066d ago (Edited 3066d ago )

You are like an anti prophet. The opposite of what you think ALWAYS happens. You are akin to an industry joke and I cannot believe anyone pays YOU for advice.

Shoko3067d ago

But I doubt it. Well, I honestly don't think there will be a true new generation but there will be an upgraded Wii and 360 for sure. The Wii and 360 has problems they need to work out. The Wii's small storage and lack of HD and the 360's simple crappy parts that it's made out of. The PS3 is fine, since, well, it's a power house and has no major technical difficulties.

Shoko3067d ago

Well actually, after reading some later comments, mine was pretty dumb. You guys are right. The gaming industry is huge, there's no reason for it to not continue. I guess what I meant to say was that this is going to be the LONGEST generation because the PS3 has was it takes to go on for a long time, and Microsoft said the 360 will last just as long, and the Wii is bound to be upgraded., so I think this gen wil last longer than usual 5 years.

ChozenWoan3067d ago

This system is at least a decade away from replacing home consoles due to the large number of graphics cards and servers needed. WoW and Eve Online have a large number of servers in a room that requires massive amounts of AC just to keep em cool. If they where to also add in enough Graphics cards to render the view for every player, they would require 100-1000+ times as much in resources.

Think about it, for every 100,000 players connected at the same time they will need not only 100,000 server connections which could come out to about 50-500 servers (depending on max number of players per server). Now add to that another 100,000 graphics cards and networking equipment to connect them to the servers. That is alot of resources for just 100,000 players. Imagine what would be needed for 50,000,000 players.

Onlive will not replace this gen (PS3/360/Wii) nor the next gen (PS4/720/Wii2) consoles, but those that follow will likely be based on Onlive's business model.

PS.
most of that is copied from another of my posts about Onlive.
http://www.n4g.com/events_g...

SinnedNogara3067d ago

Two smart people on this site. Here are bubbles.

But I doubt that the Wii will get a HD upgrade. It doesn't make much sense because the Wii sold 50 million already, at least 20 million Wii owners are hardcore gamers, the rest casual. So why would I want to sell my Wii just to get an upgraded one, just for flashier graphics. I think they should save it for a next generation of consoles. After all, OnLive won't become a MAIN Competitor until all gamers have PCs, high speed internet, etc. I don't have a high-end PC, and don't intend to buy one in the near future (I'm still using a HP Pavillion 2004, do you know how slow Spore runs??). I see this two to three generations down the line.

However, I would like to see an upgrade to the 360. The RRoDs are going to kill Microsoft if they don't do anything soon. Bring in the Xbox 360-Slim at 150 dollars.

Wii HD?? Since Nintendo has a grip on casual gamers, the HD penetration has to at least reach 70 percent in the US, which is why they should keep this generation lasting until 2013, and keep the next generation lasting for 10 years at least. What I really want for my Wii is a 70 GB hard drive. Maybe Wii demos and achievements could come out of that.

Off Topic: @ Shoko: Did you get my PM I sent two weeks ago. I am starting to get worried.

Omegasyde3067d ago

Chozen

Let alone only a few have a absolute stable connection to run the service at 720p.

Online can manipulate motion controls either, just button presses. If anything, the next gen console will all have some kind of motion controller ( from the looks of it). There is no way a system can interpret motion controls, via streaming from 1000 miles away.

I feel bad for the initial investors whom give money to the company. They are going to loose big time. Great idea, if we all had fiber optic (t1 or better) connections and a Onlive server was in each neighborhood.

+ Show (1) more replyLast reply 3067d ago
swiftshot933067d ago

2015?

Go back to elementary school.

Sarcasm3067d ago

He Divided Pi by Zero and got 6.

:)