It has been five years since the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One launched, but that doesn't mean it's time for new consoles just yet.
I dont know about MS but Sony has said that the 7 year gap between PS3 and PS4 was to long and they would likely go with the same 6 year gap they had between PS2 and PS3. Technology doesnt stop evolving and neither does the industry. PS5 will be a 2019 product not just because it is 6 years after PS4 but it is also 20 year anniversary of the PS2 in JP. If Ms were going to release a new xbox then they too could try and mark its release as some sort of anniversary of the original xbox which was in 2001 so I'd say 2021.
You're making a really uninformed assumption about semiconductor technology continuing to be able to "evolve". There's a serious -- meaning impassible at this time -- physics hurdle to creating chips at transistor scales below about 6nm. Moore's law is dead, my friend. As a consumer you may not realize it, just yet, but I guarantee by the mid 2020s you will realize it's true right here and now. The evolution of computers, as we have understood them for the past 50 years, is done, for now.
Moore’s law is dead until quantum computers are in everyone’s homes
100% this. Just for some insight, Intel has been struggling to move towards a 10nm process for years. Hence why they have been stuck at 14nm (skylake), 14nm+ (kaby lake), 14nm++ (coffee lake) for the past couple of desktop CPU generations, and leaving 10nm cannon lake to specific markets in limited quantities with a planned successor in 10nm (Ice Lake) pushed even further out for the Desktop CPU. Ryzen just released (today) their 12nm Zen+ with plans to move towards 7nm for their next generation Zen 2, but there are already reports of manufacturing defects and issues, and because the process is so small now it takes much longer to find the defects / batch causing delays. We will have to see how AMD updates their roadmap if 7nm cannot stabilize within the year. But personally i do not think we will be seeing 7nm or anything smaller in quite sometime. AMD's next gen GPU Navi has already been pushed back a full calendar year because it's allegedly using the 7nm process... so i have my doubts that we will see Navi in next gen consoles as it'll probably be way too expensive, and even if the process stabilizes it'll probably be too late to incorporate into the console designs. ...yeah sorry for the rambling lol xD
@Ulf, @Asuka, Depressing, but informative, thanks.
Wow you made yourself look really stupid
Consoles are losing their identity. ..well, short of one manufacturer..😉
Valkron Moore's Law has nothing to do quantum computing.
Yes and no. Silicon is getting there, but some anticipate it getting down to 2-3nm before leakage becomes unmanageable. Then you have graphene, which is not ready. The other way around when process can't go smaller is for the chips to become bigger (and hotter), that and more of them. Moore's law was never a law, but a guideline, a target to keep hitting. It doesn't matter how you get there to meet the guideline, and it is only a guideline.
I don't think MS would aim for 2021. They've learn from the 360 days that releasing early will help gain some momentum over the competition. The challenge though is the tech. But there's is another problem of releasing early and that is alienating the X1X adopters, but maybe it wouldn't be a problem since they can trade their consoles for credit.
Xbox can already do 4K there is no rush. The x will be the minimal system especially with free sync
@Tko It can do 4k in Xbox One games. There is a big difference when the core game is made for a weak system. It will not be doing next gen games in 4k.
MS needs a crap load of exclusive AAA titles established before any new hw.
The next gen Xbox will basically be the XboxOnex upgraded
I have to agree with this article I don't think the next consoles are coming anytime soon. They brought up some valid reasons. After 2020 seems more likely. Maybe 2021 from Microsoft and Sony or 2022.
That’s what they said about ps4 it’s too early Sony can’t afford to release a new console and yet they. If Sony don’t announce the ps5 at E3 they’ll definitely do it at TGS or PS event
PS4 is selling like hotcakes. There's no reason to rush it. If anything rushing it could damage two generations. The lost sales of the PS4 being pushed out early and the PS5 not being accepted as much and thus lower sales. Pro/X1X are showing that while there is a market for these consoles, most people still see more value in the cheaper options. CPU and GPU tech still need to evolve. 7nm, better CPU/APU. There's tons of examples of games running at 35-60 FPS on consoles and yet simply with a better CPU that game is running at 80-120 FPS. That's because Jaguar in any iteration is crap. 60 FPS was hard to maintain on those consoles. It's why even X1X titles that run in performance mode still at 1080p still struggle to maintain 60 FPS. 16-24 TFlops, and if the consoles launch late enough Ray tracing *might* be possible in 2021-2022. People freak out when they hear 16-24 TFlops and how it will never be possible in time, well high GPU's should hit 20 TFlops with Volta, likely this year or early next with the 2080ti or thereabouts. Maybe just the 2080 hits it. That's smack dab in the middle. 1 GPU generation after that, 20 TFlops will likely be equal to the 2160, and that's likely 2020. At that point, the next step is affordability and lower power for consoles. 2020 would be the earliest. 2019 the tech simply isn't ready. 2021-2022 makes the most sense. If they put out a Pro Plus, then the PS5 won't come for many years. You don't release a Pro Plus in 2019 and a PS5 in 2020. There's going to be 3 years after any update, and it doesn't make sense to make a Pro Plus, because the CPU is too weak. If you release a Pro Plus with a new CPU, you might as well make it a new generation, because that's the biggest thing holding back the PS4/XB1 and the Pro/X1X. X1X and Pro would be massively more powerful if they had decent CPU's because they are already wasting 30-50 frame per second being lost because of the piss poor CPU. The next step is the PS5/XB2 and it's simply too soon. The tech isn't there. Not on the CPU, GPU, or the demand of gamers.
I can all but guarentee there waiting on hbm and gddr6 and ryzen g2 v2 to build from Dev kits will have current stuff or less to work from for now
This guy gets it. Japanese are very superstitious and Haitachi is an important number. 2019 looks like a good bet.
You are in for some serious disappointment.
"Sony has said that the 7 year gap between PS3 and PS4 was to long". Source?
Okay, good. Hope the reveal is in early 2020 with a release in late 2020.
Yea, it's not needed right now. 2020 would be a perfect release yr.
I think its the more likely option too. They should reveal only a few months before.
The announcement early next year or even PSX this year is much more realistic with a 2020 release.
2020 would be my bet as well.
My guess is 2020 That will be the 20th anniversary of the ps2 and you know Sony is going to go ham with celebrating their golden egg.
2020 will be the tease
Good, Sony is on fire right now, they don't need to rush it.
2020 seems ideal imo but the more rumors spread then the more I think 2019 could be a possibility however. As of now we have about 4 large undated Sony exclusives (Days Gone, TLOU2, Ghost of tsushima, and Death Stranding—and some smaller ones). Out of those, at least 1 will probably release by next Spring (Day’s Gone I expect should be the first). Probably another by next Holiday (TLOU2 or Ghost). Sony tends to have a post-new launch exclusive as well every time so another might be saved for after (DS imo... it seems furthest out imo and could even be PS5 by time it’s done for all we know). So what they show at e3 will probably be a good indication of ‘19 or ‘20 imo. Nothing huge and new has been announced for a while now, outside of Ghost last year, so either they need a new year of possible line up for ‘20 announced or they might stay silent simply because they’re saving PS5 launch titles (which should at least have 1-2 in the works by now even if 2020–Horizon 2 would be Killer app but could just as easily be a late gen hit imo, perhaps more so really). I would probably rather the wait as it will allow stronger hardware to begin with, on top of simply spacing it out a bit more. Not because the space is needed, but because the hardware from both is still holding up pretty well. Longer it is, the more next gen can really pop as glass ceilings aren’t broke yet but lower than ever.
I read an article a whileago where Kojima said that Dearth Stranding will be out before the May 2019 Olympics.
If true, it will probably be the big late Spring game next year then. I doubt we’ll be luckier for an earlier release. Maybe Day’s Gone around Feb-March like Horizon? You’d think it would be first as it’s actually shown gameplay several times already. Who knows, but hadn’t heard that so thanks.
There are no May 2019 Olympics, next one is ~August 2020 in Tokyo. Starts July 24th 2020. Death Stranding doesn't have to be a brand new title for a PS5 launch. He makes the game, they release it, then can put out the PS5 version whose assets are basically there because they did the PC version already.
Games take 3-5 years to develop. There's also no reason why these games can't release on multiple consoles. They make a PS4/Pro version, and then since it's all X86, can much more easily pump out the upgraded original vision with the PS5 on launch or shortly thereafter. It's not like Sony didn't go heavily into remasters this generation. This time they won't even really need to remaster it, just take the shackles off of it with a similar but far more powerful architecture.
XXBxX1xX and switch just released, of course they're not coming out with another anytime soon
Well duh Nintendo just launch the Switch last year.
Which means the Lite or XL versions will be here any minute.. ;^p
No. The Switch is not a dedicated Handheld. What work for GB-3DS won't work for Switch.
If it were just a handheld, then maybe. But it's not just a handheld. It's a hybrid with home console matters to consider, and as it's replacing the Wii U and getting many of the same games, we shouldn't expect it to be quickly replaced. Especially since it's a hit seller and is breaking records left and right.
^it's a handheld.
PS5 & Next Xbox = 2020 Next Nintendo console = 2022/23
Nintendo already said they plan to have Switch around for more than 6 years.
Switch is only a year old [13 months], and Nintendo wants to make it last at least 7 years or more, so that's a no-brainer for them. It's popular enough, and its advertisement is done well enough, that if they can just keep the games coming, it should last at least as long as they want it to, if not a couple years more. As for the PS5, as I said in a previous thread, I don't expect that to happen soon at all. The PS4's profits are enough of a reason for Sony to want to stretch it out for as long as possible, especially now that the Pro is around. They did it with the PS3 for 10 years, and they had a totally different reason for that one. If they wanted to, I could see the PS4 Pro lasting another 5 years easy, and selling well for the majority of it. As for Microsoft... Well, they need to re-think their entire advertisment strategy. The XB1X, in and of itself, is not a terrible console. It's got all the power anyone could ask for, in fact. But it's lacking in terms of meaningful exclusives, and it seems to be having the same advertisement issues that the Wii U was having, which are holding it back a lot. At this rate, if they can't pull the XB1X out of the bad advertisement quagmire it's sinking in, I wouldn't be surprised if they replace it with a new console sooner rather than later, even if they don't need a console with newer tech. Re-branding can do wonders, and maybe that's just what the XBox line needs at this point.
I tend to disagree with you most times but I think this post is spot on @wonderful. Sony shouldn't be in any rush to release a new console considering how far they are ahead of Xbox. And it's pretty clear at this point that the Pro and X are going to suffice for all the people looking to play in 4k. Another home console so close to the release of the pro and X would only provide minimal gains and I do not think would be considered "next gen". Now in terms of mobile I think Sony has a huge opportunity here to 1 up the switch in terms of power. I could definitely see their next big hardware announcement being something in the mobile space. Because at this rate the only competition Sony has is from Nintendo and I don't think the switch is in direct competition to the PS4. This move could also spur Nintendo to release another iteration of the switch maybe in the same vein as the pro or the X where it's just more powerful but all games coming to it would still have to support the base Switch. Maybe that's just my wishful thinking (I'd love to see a vita 2) but I don't see any big hardware announcements any time soon from any of them.
I think that's what the Vita was supposed to be in relation to the 3DS. With that failure, I think Sony has decided to play to their strengths by foregoing dedicated handhelds, and I doubt they'd try to copy the Switch at any point in the near future. Of course, if I'm wrong, then more power to them and I wish them luck, but I think the dedicated Sony crowd, at this point, are so used to just home consoles that Sony would have to do something really different than just a powerful poser to get a reaction they'd like. Maybe synch it up with their VR department somehow?
"Well, they need to re-think their entire advertisment strategy." Advertisement strategy? The XB1X correction for the XB1 being designed around and limited by Kinect. An add on introduced with the 360 which showed signs from the beginning it didn't work properly and never was made to work properly despite repeated insistence.
I was referring to the overall strategy, not just that one aspect. How they present the X, the advantages it offers, the games it has that others will not and how it improves upon multiplats, things like that. Might help if they also find a good hook for the advertisement. Switch's advertisement is an easy thing to build around, but it isn't like Microsoft can't find something for the X, as well.
"How they present the X, the advantages it offers, the games it has that others will not and how it improves upon multiplats, things like that." That's all they've ever done. Present the Xbox as the best place to play games, the only system to play certain games, only minus a sense of reality or awareness of what's on other platforms.
There's a big difference between saying and doing. Hence why I mentioned exclusives, amongst other things.
I don't. Very satisfied with my PS4.
For me at least, the PS4 is at a point where I could very comfortably keep playing while waiting for the PS5. But I can see MS trying to rush a console out early to get an advantage. I just hope if MS do that Sony is on the ball and release at that time or very soon after. Sony is clearly for the gamers and they deverse all the sales they get. They shouldn't miss out just because MS tries to be sneaky. But considering the xbonex just released, I doubt MS are going to do that.
Imo 2020 or 2021.
Think if anyone has room - or a need - for improvement its Nintendo.
Maybe in a world where xbox doesn't exist.
May go without saying, but I doubt MS can improve where it counts.
I bought a ps4 pro in March 1. I would like if PS5 launches in fall 2019 at the very least so I won't be as salty.
Another one of these article? We all know this and we all agree, lets move on now.
Good. I’m enjoying what I’ve got right now and my backlog is nuts. All three of you, take your time. I am.
2019 would have been possible if it wasn't for bitcoins. They would have been able to deliver a 12 TFLOPS PS5 for $399.99 in November 2019. However the price increase for graphic cards because of bitcoins made that impossible for 2019. 2020 is likely when it will happen. When they claimed the PS3 life cycle was too long at the beginning of this generation, the bitcoin price increase hadn't happened yet. This will help Sony though. With the increase of price in video cards, it's now more costly to upgrade your computer than ever, especially since videocards becomes obsolete much quicker than the rest. Because of that, it means consoles, which come at a cheaper price point and that you only have to upgrade every 6-7 years suddently becomes even more attractive to gamers. Which likely means the PS5 will beat the next Xbox by an even bigger lead next-gen.
I'm not expecting any such announcement at this year's E3, but I wouldn't put it past Sony or MS to unveil new hardware at E3 2019, maybe with a projected 2020 release date. Nintendo just released the Switch so it's doubtful they'll release a new console for a while (maybe a new dedicated handheld), but the PS4/XB1 will have been out for over 6 years when 2020 comes around.
Don't know about MS or Nintendo but devs have the ps5 kits already. It's usually about 2 to 3 years for development. I would guess 2021 for ps5.
They introduced the mid generation upgrade so they could extend the generation by keeping interest. You don't introduce a mid gen upgrade, to make a next gen console 2 years later. Christmas 2020-march-june 2021. You should all be happy, these things need to do 4k, any sooner and they'll be pieces of junk if they wanna keep the entry level fee low.
For one I’m in no rush PS4 is fantastic. Like it or not computer tech advancements is slowing down, you ain’t going to see PS5 next year get over it. Personally I want to see a significant leap in PS5 at the moment tech isn’t that much better. That’s why these mid cycle upgrades maybe the norm because tech is slowing.
History suggests we are still 3 years away from both PS5 and the next Xbox
I agree. I dont get all the talk
Sony will be the next to release their next next next gen system lol. Author: If by not anytime soon you mean fall 2019 or lqter, then i agree with you 😁
GOOD. We are just hitting the sweet spot with software releases taking full advantage of dev cycles and current console power. Horizon, God of War, Spiderman, and many more to come. It is a good time to be a gamer. Also: IF a new console were to release would chipmakers be able to supply them? If yes, would it be at a fair price? Crypto mining is jacking up the costs significantly.
If it’s truly a next gen console that will last another 5-10 years then I would probably buy a ps5 next year or 2020. I have a pro now and that’s fine for me but if something like ghost of Tsushima was a ps5 launch title I would be buying that, no questions asked. That is my most hyped game right now, easily. The support is the difference, I’m not worried about a reason to own a PlayStation, it will pay off more often than not. They are much more reliable on the Sony side because they don’t pretend to be something else. The PlayStation is a closed platform, a true console. Games only available on that platform, a user base on a closed network. I have a Xbox slim and while I like the Xbox one x machine I don’t have any reason to buy one. There is no game that pushes me to the X and the support seems chaotic at best aside from the BC stuff which is being handled like a champ. The machine is fine but they need to get their publishing in line. If they don’t want to concentrate on game publishing and creation then I think they have an obligation to say it. If they want to be a vessel like valve then just say so. I’m hoping they kill it June because they need it. I have a good feeling about it. Hopefully it’s not stupid stuff like a 1 year timed exclusive on something like the “new bioshock”. True production like they published a new condemned from scratch. I would buy an Xbox one x the day it came out.
Always funny seeing people who don’t remember thatconsole generations have been 5 years forever and that that’s an eternity in terms of technology.