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Don't expect the next PlayStation, Xbox, or Nintendo console anytime soon

It has been five years since the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One launched, but that doesn't mean it's time for new consoles just yet.

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businessinsider.com
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darthv7293d ago

I dont know about MS but Sony has said that the 7 year gap between PS3 and PS4 was to long and they would likely go with the same 6 year gap they had between PS2 and PS3. Technology doesnt stop evolving and neither does the industry. PS5 will be a 2019 product not just because it is 6 years after PS4 but it is also 20 year anniversary of the PS2 in JP.

If Ms were going to release a new xbox then they too could try and mark its release as some sort of anniversary of the original xbox which was in 2001 so I'd say 2021.

Ulf93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

You're making a really uninformed assumption about semiconductor technology continuing to be able to "evolve". There's a serious -- meaning impassible at this time -- physics hurdle to creating chips at transistor scales below about 6nm.

Moore's law is dead, my friend. As a consumer you may not realize it, just yet, but I guarantee by the mid 2020s you will realize it's true right here and now.

The evolution of computers, as we have understood them for the past 50 years, is done, for now.

Valkron193d ago

Moore’s law is dead until quantum computers are in everyone’s homes

Asuka93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

100% this. Just for some insight, Intel has been struggling to move towards a 10nm process for years. Hence why they have been stuck at 14nm (skylake), 14nm+ (kaby lake), 14nm++ (coffee lake) for the past couple of desktop CPU generations, and leaving 10nm cannon lake to specific markets in limited quantities with a planned successor in 10nm (Ice Lake) pushed even further out for the Desktop CPU.

Ryzen just released (today) their 12nm Zen+ with plans to move towards 7nm for their next generation Zen 2, but there are already reports of manufacturing defects and issues, and because the process is so small now it takes much longer to find the defects / batch causing delays. We will have to see how AMD updates their roadmap if 7nm cannot stabilize within the year. But personally i do not think we will be seeing 7nm or anything smaller in quite sometime. AMD's next gen GPU Navi has already been pushed back a full calendar year because it's allegedly using the 7nm process... so i have my doubts that we will see Navi in next gen consoles as it'll probably be way too expensive, and even if the process stabilizes it'll probably be too late to incorporate into the console designs.

...yeah sorry for the rambling lol xD

mp128993d ago

@Ulf, @Asuka, Depressing, but informative, thanks.

Kokyu93d ago

Wow you made yourself look really stupid

marloc_x93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

Consoles are losing their identity.

..well, short of one manufacturer..😉

Zeldafan6493d ago

Valkron
Moore's Law has nothing to do quantum computing.

jmc888892d ago

Yes and no. Silicon is getting there, but some anticipate it getting down to 2-3nm before leakage becomes unmanageable. Then you have graphene, which is not ready.

The other way around when process can't go smaller is for the chips to become bigger (and hotter), that and more of them.

Moore's law was never a law, but a guideline, a target to keep hitting. It doesn't matter how you get there to meet the guideline, and it is only a guideline.

+ Show (4) more repliesLast reply 92d ago
Gamist2dot093d ago

I don't think MS would aim for 2021. They've learn from the 360 days that releasing early will help gain some momentum over the competition. The challenge though is the tech. But there's is another problem of releasing early and that is alienating the X1X adopters, but maybe it wouldn't be a problem since they can trade their consoles for credit.

Tko111193d ago

Xbox can already do 4K there is no rush. The x will be the minimal system especially with free sync

Rude-ro93d ago

@Tko
It can do 4k in Xbox One games.
There is a big difference when the core game is made for a weak system.
It will not be doing next gen games in 4k.

Bobafret93d ago

MS needs a crap load of exclusive AAA titles established before any new hw.

psuedo93d ago

The next gen Xbox will basically be the XboxOnex upgraded

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93d ago Replies(1)
lxeasy93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

I have to agree with this article I don't think the next consoles are coming anytime soon. They brought up some valid reasons. After 2020 seems more likely. Maybe 2021 from Microsoft and Sony or 2022.

93d ago
1Victor93d ago

That’s what they said about ps4 it’s too early Sony can’t afford to release a new console and yet they. If Sony don’t announce the ps5 at E3 they’ll definitely do it at TGS or PS event

jmc888892d ago (Edited 92d ago )

PS4 is selling like hotcakes. There's no reason to rush it. If anything rushing it could damage two generations. The lost sales of the PS4 being pushed out early and the PS5 not being accepted as much and thus lower sales.

Pro/X1X are showing that while there is a market for these consoles, most people still see more value in the cheaper options.

CPU and GPU tech still need to evolve.

7nm, better CPU/APU. There's tons of examples of games running at 35-60 FPS on consoles and yet simply with a better CPU that game is running at 80-120 FPS. That's because Jaguar in any iteration is crap. 60 FPS was hard to maintain on those consoles. It's why even X1X titles that run in performance mode still at 1080p still struggle to maintain 60 FPS.

16-24 TFlops, and if the consoles launch late enough Ray tracing *might* be possible in 2021-2022.

People freak out when they hear 16-24 TFlops and how it will never be possible in time, well high GPU's should hit 20 TFlops with Volta, likely this year or early next with the 2080ti or thereabouts. Maybe just the 2080 hits it. That's smack dab in the middle. 1 GPU generation after that, 20 TFlops will likely be equal to the 2160, and that's likely 2020. At that point, the next step is affordability and lower power for consoles.

2020 would be the earliest. 2019 the tech simply isn't ready. 2021-2022 makes the most sense.

If they put out a Pro Plus, then the PS5 won't come for many years. You don't release a Pro Plus in 2019 and a PS5 in 2020. There's going to be 3 years after any update, and it doesn't make sense to make a Pro Plus, because the CPU is too weak. If you release a Pro Plus with a new CPU, you might as well make it a new generation, because that's the biggest thing holding back the PS4/XB1 and the Pro/X1X. X1X and Pro would be massively more powerful if they had decent CPU's because they are already wasting 30-50 frame per second being lost because of the piss poor CPU.

The next step is the PS5/XB2 and it's simply too soon. The tech isn't there. Not on the CPU, GPU, or the demand of gamers.

jerethdagryphon93d ago

I can all but guarentee there waiting on hbm and gddr6 and ryzen g2 v2 to build from
Dev kits will have current stuff or less to work from for now

Kokyu93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

This guy gets it. Japanese are very superstitious and Haitachi is an important number. 2019 looks like a good bet.

Artemidorus93d ago

You are in for some serious disappointment.

stefan_77193d ago

"Sony has said that the 7 year gap between PS3 and PS4 was to long". Source?

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Gamist2dot093d ago

Okay, good. Hope the reveal is in early 2020 with a release in late 2020.

DaGR8JIBRALTAR93d ago

Yea, it's not needed right now. 2020 would be a perfect release yr.

OB1Biker93d ago (Edited 93d ago )

I think its the more likely option too. They should reveal only a few months before.

PhantomS4293d ago

The announcement early next year or even PSX this year is much more realistic with a 2020 release.

Anon197493d ago

2020 would be my bet as well.

Rude-ro93d ago

My guess is 2020
That will be the 20th anniversary of the ps2 and you know Sony is going to go ham with celebrating their golden egg.

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bluefox75593d ago

Good, Sony is on fire right now, they don't need to rush it.