No, the Nintendo Switch is not going to sell 20 million units in the next fiscal year, despite the hopes of Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima.
Could someone explain to me if Nintendo expects to sell 20 million by April 2018, during the entirety of 2018, or April 2019.
I'm pretty sure the expectation set by President Kimishima is that the Switch will sell more than 20 million units for the fiscal year of 2018 (from April 2018-March 2019)
Won’t happen since the Switch is a fluky system. The success is being overstated. We’re not even sure if Nintendo can produce 20 mil much less sell it out. The system didn’t sell out everywhere already in probably its best year.
I love how the article tries to sound like they know what they are talking about. Yet they only predicted 6-8 million! it passed that after 4 months! Then they tried down playing it saying it passed 10 million in less than 9 months... Try 13 million. Give credit where it is do. You was wrong They see back order numbers. Know whats coming out. And know which territories they are going to launch in. Plus they never said a year they said FISCAL year 2018. They launched March 03 and their fiscal years end on the last day of March so their is naturally a extra 27 days. You just don't know Finance speak.
April 2018 to April 2019 Theres a chance it could.......hardware sales always double from the first year unless it dies out like Wii U which had a strong first year and then die out
They would have sold more this year if Apple wasn't hoarding the chips.
Put away the crystal ball, champ; you have no way of knowing whether they will or won't, anymore than they do. Hoping and doing their best towards that goal isn't a sin, and if they keep up the job they've done this year while improving in certain aspects then it's entirely possible, so saying "No, they won't" at this stage is just as premature as saying "yes, they will." Sit down, and wait like the rest of us. Time will tell the tale better than any naysaying and downplaying you can do here.
"wait like the rest of us" LOL you are funny! (not really though). You and the rest of the crazed nintendo fanboys has done all sort of crazy hyping and prediction according to what nintendo officials has said. Remember when the Wii U was projected to sell 100 million units? LOL...
Who projected Wii U to sell 100 million? PS3 didn't even sell 100 million. Where did you read that? Michael Pachter? lol
@Moonman there were internal Nintendo estimates of the Wii U selling that well. They believed everyone who bought a Wii would get one.
Yeah I remember this same kimishima guy quoting that in a Q & A in Nintendo's website.
20 million is achievable if they can move around 5-7 million of it in Japan alone. At this point anyone counting out Nintendo on anything having to do with sales is just looking for attention. This man is the president of Nintendo. He has more knowledge about this than you...lol.
and he has a vested interest... Iwata predicted 9 million in sales for the Wii U in its second year... after a failure of a first year.
Yes, but Kimishima has been excellent so far for Nintendo. This writer seems to have no clue what Nintendo has up it's sleeves. I actually take the time to read and found out that the producer of Super Mario Odyssey hinted in October that Nintendo has New IP's releasing over the next 2 years. Here's the quote: "Yoshiaki Koizumi, producer of Super Mario Odyssey: Nintendo still have many IPs which have not come out for the system, and also more than just existing IPs in store as well. We are planning and preparing games that people probably haven’t even thought about, which will be released steadily over the next two years. We hope to make games which resonate with players using this process, so please patiently look forward to it." Source: http://www.siliconera.com/2... Never count out Nintendo. It's better just to be quiet and sit back and watch...lol.
I would love to say this second opinion piece on this 20 million forecast will be the last one we hear of, but I wouldn't bet on it. The console hasn't even been out a year yet, we haven't had a Direct, nor an E3, and with Nintendo such an easy target nowadays, let's ease off the "No Way" throttle just a tad.
I'd say wait till we find out what the software line-up looks like for the year before making any assumptions. Rumours are of a January direct so we shouldn't have to wait long. If that Pokemon game comes out this year AND it's the Pokemon game where they actually significantly shake things up AND there's some other killer software released I see no reason why the switch can't get close to 20 million. People often forget just how big the Pokemon fan base potentially is. The problem is that most of Pokemon's potential fans lost interest years ago and what's left is the sizeable but dwindling hard-core base. Pokemon just needs to reach out past that base (maybe with more modern game design) and it could be HUGE; just look at the success of Pokemon go.
The new Pokemon, even if doesn’t shake up the formula as much as BOTW, will still outsell every Switch’s exclusives and will help move millions of Switches. Exciting times are ahead for January’s Directn
The problem is there are no must have games in 2018 so far
Before January of this year, we didn't even know what games would there be for the Switch during 2017; at most, we had a reasonable suspicion Zelda BOTW would launch in 2017, but that was it. We didn't know about Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, ARMS, Mario + Rabbids, Fire Emblem Warriors, Pokken DX, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Xenoblade 2. All of these games were announced in January and afterwards. All of these released whitin the year. Nintendo has had its biggest Direct (outside of E3) in January for several years in a row now. It stands to reason they'll keep that tradition for January 2018. Let's wait until then to see if they announce any games before stating they don't have anything for 2018 (which I seriously doubt).
Um, did you forget how they basically castrated the Wii U for about 2 years and put most of their best teams putting out games for the Switch? That means two things. #1 It had about 3 years to create the games for this first year #2 It's going to be awhile for the teams that created games for 2017 can turn around and make another one. That they specifically delayed the Switch from launch last fall (2016) to spring of this year to ensure more games at launch, which was still few. Also in 2018 it will still be limited to what it can receive support wise since many console/pc devs have moved far past what the Switch can handle. If anything, it'll become more pronounced as Pro and X1X are targeted more and more by devs. Also Mario Kart 8 is essentially a Wii U game with a few new features/maps. Splatoon 2 is basically 1.5. Zelda also was a Wii U game. Still if you have a Wii U, Mario Odyssey is the first game to perhaps justify a purchase given it's new, a core Nintendo experience, and not on Wii U. You're right, we'll know more soon, and no doubt there will be surprises, but there's not likely going to be another AAA Zelda and AAA Mario. Right now it's basically AA stuff like Yoshi and Kirby leading 2018. Maybe they can squeeze 1 AAA game in, like a Metroid or Pokemon or something. Also some of your games you are treating as big deals, weren't. Arms, Fire Emblem Warriors, and Pokken DX aren't huge sellers. Fire Emblem Warriors has sold something like 210k copies in the first month in EU/US+ first month and a half in Japan. Mario+Rabbids about 700k in the first 10 weeks worldwide. Pokken about 1.34 million since launch. Arms 1.09 million since launch, and that was likely heavily influenced by it being an close to launch title. It's obvious these are middling franchises, well actually below middling. Splatoon is middling and that sold 2.7 million. High end franchises like Zelda and Mario sell out huge. Zelda with 4.36 million since launch and Mario with 2.83 million in two weeks of reporting. Pokemon would be one. Metroid should be one, but it's a bit of a question mark. Metroid is one of those things that could be a big franchise or could be a middling one. Just depends. They'll probably have more crossovers, and allowing teams to use UE4 with Nintendo properties like with the next Donkey Kong Racing. But how many of these are coming out in 2018? How liberally are they going to do this? 1 game a year? 5? There's lots they can do with it, but we don't know how often they'll license that stuff out. But games like Yoshi/Kirby are more like Splatoon 2 range. Not core products, but will sell decently. These can't be year leading games. It's up to Nintendo to showcase why people should buy a Switch in 2018. Right now people are looking at 2017 and thinking it'll be much bigger. It could be much smaller from Nintendo and rely on 3rd parties, which may or may not be getting regular licenses to use Nintendo properties, and will result in a big push for the usual handheld type genres/titles.
Nintendo's delaying of 64gb cards, 3rd party and possibly 1st party games need memory cards, and most importantly Nintendo won't be able just rehash the games from wii u in year 2. They're gonna need that Nintendo magic in there somewhere
Read my above comment on New IP's already confirmed to be in the making. I would agree with you if I didn't know this. But I feel like Nintendo, under Kimishima's leadership can be optimistic with a 20 million forecast. They must be proud of what they have coming. I see no need to doubt it. At least YET..lol
This is true. They could be great. They could flop. Odds are it'll be both. Something will end up being a great new franchise. A few should be decent, like a Splatoon middling franchise. A few might not do so well. New IP's can be high risk/high reward. But they definitely needed to expand, and I'm glad they are trying. We also don't know when these games can get to market. Games can take 3-5 years. So if some of these were started in early 2017, it could easily be 2019-2021 before these hit. Of course it also depends on scope. Smaller titles could see a turnaround quicker, and a rushed one maybe could hit late 2018-mid 2019 timeframe. Kimishima's leadership? He really hasn't done anything to be judged against. He launched a system another started. It's how he continues or doesn't continue Switch's initial momentum that will showcase his leadership. He really hasn't done anything yet. Let some of the decisions he's making, like with these new IP's, and when they start showing up. How much he gets 3rd parties involved (if he can, because limiting 3rd parties to Nintendo only devices for crossovers DOES limit how much developers even want to do it.). How does he handle price cuts to Switch? Nintendo online? When does a new iteration come out? What will its power be and for how much? Don't anoint a guy who hasn't been judged for basically any decision and imply he's shown certified great leadership. He hasn't.
They need to announce some more big games to keep the momentum up. A few logos ain’t good enough. Need a direct in the next month
Yes--maintain the momentum. If they can do that, the sky is the limit.
"Unfortunately, that 17 million unit figure is a little disingenuous." Did you mean "wishful thinking"? "Disingenuous" means deliberately trying to mislead you. I see that word misused a lot, which is why I'm asking. Anyway, the system sold 10 million in 9 months, which makes a figure of 20 million in 2 years perfectly plausible. They have to keep up the momentum, which is doable at this point. They've achieved critical mass with the market and third parties. The Switch is a unique system too, in that it serves double duty as a home console and a portable. It has no competition in that sense. I think it's going to do very well, and its heavy sales to date are not just a Year-One fluke.
Edit: I'm off by 10 million. Now the skepticism makes more sense to me. Yeah, it will be tough selling 20 more million units by April of '19. Still, it is doable, with the right effort into games and customer satisfaction.
If they drop the price and increase inventory then they could easily pull 20 million off. Personally, I still don’t see the value in the switch at 300 dollars. I’m glad those who are supporting it do, but for me I don’t fall in that category. With cost of peripherals and memory plus game I won’t be buying a switch until it’s retailed at 200. But it’s Nintendo they won’t drop the price until the system is either dying(which they don’t even then) or on its last life(which they don’t even then, don’t even scare yourself looking up the price of the Wii U new on amazon)
People who don't own a switch keep talking about the "peripherals" . Actually, switch comes with everything you need. Sure, you MAY need a bigger memory IF you prefer digital games over phisical ones, but nothing else. Joycon grip is almost perfect and confortable as standard controller.
Maybe your own words just ring true. “People who don’t own switch keep talking about peripherals” sounds to me like that’s a big roadblock to people if that’s what everyone is talking about.
You pretty much nailed it. If Nintendo is serious about moving that many units they will need to lower the price-maybe. Or come out with a new game that will drive the casuals and gamers absolutely bonkers (which they may) if they don’t own.
Wii U is the exception to the rule regarding price cuts. Every single other system from Nintendo, handheld or home console, has dropped in price several times during their lifespans. Also, the only extra you will definitely need is a micro SD card. Which is true for every modern portable gaming device, because you can't put a hard drive disk to a handheld. You don't need to buy the Pro Controller if you don't want to (joycons on the grip work just like a traditional controller).
Yeah, but many people don't buy portable gaming devices. When the cost is $299, which is well above a PS4/XB1S, it is a barrier. A Switch+SD card nears the PS4 Pro territory on price. Nintendo needs a price drop because only the portability is keeping the price high, and while you and many others might love that aspect, for most people, they just don't give a crap, and don't want to pay the extra $100-150 for it to be portable, which is what they are asking for. If they wanted to make a home version of Switch, they could sell it and probably make more off it at $199 then Switch at $299. No battery cost. No screen cost. No thermal worries. They could make it REAL cheap.
Anyone want to buy a slightly used Switch? I played through Mario Odyssey and now it is just sitting there
The rumor was Nintendo was producing 25-30 million Switches next year. So this seems humble...lol. 30 million seemed insane. 20 million seems more likely. I feel like a new Pokemon and a Smash Bros. could get more than half of that 20 million done easy. Get more Japanese AAA third party games like Monster Hunter/Dragon Quest/Final Fantasy and get 3-4 million more sales. Release some Metroid Prime 4 bundles and get 1.5-2.5 million more. It's already adding up quick with just those few titles. This is not impossible because more people don't have a Switch than the projected 16-17 million that will by the end of March.
Let's hope, more sales more games:)
i know i want one
Its no longer hard to find or outsold EVERYWHERE. All of us will mostly agree if nintendo can outdo 2017 hardware and software it will be nothing short of amazing. Even if most of you disagree with that 👆most of you nintendo dudes can agree it is going to be pretty hard to top a new zelda, mario, mario kart (port), splatoon 2, xenoblade 2... In 2018. Yeah 3rd partys are great but most ppl nintendo, sony, ms... Want those AAA 1st partys games and nintendo is no different @ least now we will start to see nintendos fullest potential because to be honest... If nintendo never had shortage issues they would have sold MILLIONS more than they did and prob be closer to 15-20 mil as of right now. So 1st party stand outs in 2018 are... Kirby Yoshi DQ11 Project Octopath Super Smath Bros (port) None of those as far as mass appeal top mario or zelda...
Not sure if will hit 20 but it might get close when pokemon launches as well as other big hand held sellers.
Im gonna bombard him if switch sells 20 millions next year
Will Switch have the same appeal as Wii? Wii sold over 100million! I hope it doesn't go down the limited appeal way like N64, gamecube or even 3DS. I think PS4 has passed the 3DS in sales as of Dec 2017 as announced today. So does that mean 3DS is losing its appeal? Hopefully Switch can reach 3DS figures of 68million and more :)
It was also far cheaper. It was also at a time when if you add the handheld that came out a bit before and Wii, they sold about 250 million units combined. Now they have it all in one. The Switch has to be compared against the sales of BOTH their handheld AND consoles before it, since it's replacing both. I've also been pointing this out since long before launch. At least until it isn't, as they haven't ruled out making another handheld, a cheaper one. So yeah, it's very important that people realize that 3DS+Wii U being matched by Switch, wouldn't be saying much. It would be like holding the fort that burnt down a few years earlier when compared to 250 million units sold. Nintendo was limited for much of 2017 with supply issues, but that seems to have eased, and it'll be interesting to see what 2018 holds for them. How much momentum is really there? 2018 is pivotal for Nintendo.
If a new Pokemon game comes out for Switch it might be possible.
Multiple Strong (Game Of Gen) contenders within the Switch’s launch year, can’t wait to see what Nintendo has in store for us in 2018. Nintendo deserves all the success and accolades they’re receiving. Thanks Nintendo!
Well its not out the realm of possibility for either Switch or PS4 to get 20 million in a year provided many things would go their way.
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