Michael Pachter thinks the PS5 release date won't come around until PS4 sales slows down and that could take up to 2020.
Hopefully the next consoles will have a desktop cpu build in them
Why CPU. Wouldn't you want a gpu
You kinda need both.
Graphics are important, but environmental simulation, physics and AI have stagnated due to their lack of focus this gen. PS5 should and will likely still provide an upgraded GPU (10-12 t/flops), but the CPUs need to be a BIG leap forward, at least 6 times the current gens power. CPU based mechanics need to be the showcase next gen. Picture destructible buildings and landscapes in GTA VI haha
You need both, and contrary to what a lot of people think, CPU matters, it will bottleneck any system if it's not powerful enough. This is happening with current consoles even.
Lets see if 2020 is the target year then Sony is already in the late stages of design and in talks with AMD on potential cpu/gpu architectures (+custom work) that can be used for late mid-2019 production. https://www.anandtech.com/s... So we are looking at 'Navi' 7nm dies for the GPU with superfast HBM memory at around 12 gb (ram) and 7nm Ryzen 2.0 12-18 core CPU. Total 12-14trfl is not that unthinkable of a target for a 2020 console considering its just 3-4x the current PS4 Pro outpout (its next gen afterall). SSD storage (at least 1gb) + a 2gb hybrid HDD. A 4K blu ray drive is a no-brainer. Add a top of the line cooling system and there you have it. What do you guys think about these specs^^^?
@UltraNova: Interessting speculation. I'm pretty sure that the PS5 won't have it's GPU and CPU on seperate dice. I'm assuming it'll be an APU. Unified HBM sounds realistic if the manufacturing prices go down enough and/or HBM3 will be ready in time (which seems unlikely from what I know). Since native 4K gaming will probably be the target I'd estimate a minimum of 16GB with a total memory bandwidth of at least 1024GB/s. 7nm sounds about right so the CPU clock will go up. 3Ghz will certainly be possible. I highly doubt it'll have 12-18 cores though. I assume you meant TB when talking about storage. If so a 1TB SSD sounds very unrealistic when aiming for a competative price. NAND-Flash is just too expensive.
@CyrusLemont Sorry, if you think a 4 year old CPU using standard GDDR5 memory is expensive at $499 the parts you named are going to astronomical. It is like you took all the cutting edge, something still not available and just added to the list without thinking. Although, I like your list of potential parts for the next console they are not going to be feasibly possible. You seem to think that items that in some cases that are currently more than a console itself (e.g. the CPU) they will drop so dramatically and be sized down to console pricing. HBM alone is not going to drop to acceptable price levels to be in any machine. Although VEGA supports it, the memory is very specialized memory that (because of it's expense) is currently meant for high-end workstation type of graphics and not a console in less than a couple of years. Do you even know of anything that uses it? Prices drop when devices use something. Any memory used in the next console will be DDDR5/x or GDDR6. Consoles must use standards because standards mean the prices are able to be competitive. I would actually jump your 12GB and say 16GB is more likely but definitely some type of GDDR not HBM. A 1TB SSD going in not going be $40 (that is how much they pay for 500 GB drive and not much more for 1TB in the PS4 and Xbox One. Remember we are shooting for a console below $499 ($399 would be best) SSD has not dramatically dropped in a while. A 1TB SSD today is around $250. It has a long way to go to reach that viable price for a $399 console. Actually, you could see a hybrid in a console. Since most people run the same game for a while it would be a good option. Using a hybrid (32+GB cache) would allow them to put in a 2TB or larger drive that is economically friendly for console pricing. A SSD would be nice it just won't be at acceptable pricing. CPU, That is the really question. For a $399 console the combined GPU and CPU into APU must come in around $130. Your Ryzen 12-18 core is definitely not in the running. That CPU design starts at $799 just for the 12 core chip. You will continue to see 8 core using Ryzen. Any new console, if using AMD, will be some form of a Ryzen 7 based 8 core which is currently around $300 on the low end for just the CPU. There is no reason to add the additional cost of the higher end CPU it doesn't bring enough to the equation. It is pure fantasy. Once again AMD is not shrinking (lower the heat power requirements) for anything until next year and even when they start it will not be their 12-18 core Threadripper and while to go for the Ryzen 7. IT will be the Ryzen 3 and 5. The Threadripper that is their bread and butter high-desktop chip for the next few years. That would be like Intel shrinking Intel's i9 down. That is what the Threadripper is competing against the high end i7 and i9 Intel chips. The heat release and power requirement of those chips area extremely high. The power requirements at 180W on those AMD chips alone are twice that of the i7 and i9. They aren't getting that down console needs any time soon. And that is without trying to marry them into a APU, The heat is the main concern of any console. Sony and Microsoft will play any new console safe. Remember we are not putting these in a large desktop but a shoebox. I don't know what Ryzen 2.0 means. The reason consoles are generally in the $299 to $499 price range is they use parts that aren't cutting edge. They may specialize the older parts for their particular use but, generally they are using tech that is not this years new thing. People look at the Xbox One X and think $499 is expensive for using a APU based on a 5 year old chip design and mid level version of GPU that will be 2 years old by the time it is released. Yet, even using those items makes the device probably close a loss or very little profit.
@ both guys above, thanks for shooting down my dreams hehe.
No man no. The GPU is already covered. The CPU has been what's holding back this generation from the start.
The GPU's are out of synch with the CPU's. So they could push 8-10Tflop GPU, but they would need to at least double or triple the CPU power to keep up. Add an extra few GB of slightly faster ram and you probably have the ps5 specs. A 10Tflop GPU and they would have enough strength for guaranteed 4k, plus many visual improvements. Then overhaul the CPU and you might even be able to push for 60fps.
Hopefully they play games
no need for it to be desktop. future gens of ryzen mobile will be more than a few levels ahead of the jaguar.
CPU and GPU. But I've got no problems waiting until 2020 PS4 is still a beast and it still pumping out some of the best games ever made
At best PS5 will use custom Ryzen 3 and it will cost $ 400, for sure.
And FFVII Remake still won't be fully released by then
Because it being episodic? Man I hope that’s not the case. Also, Kingdom Hearts 3 will drive the sales of the PS4 through the roof.
While it might; I don't think Kingdom Hearts 3 will drive sales up since it's coming to xbox as well. Now switch just needs to get it as well.
@Meka.. It’s releasing first on Playstation. (Timed exclusive). Not sure for how long tho.
Not necessarily. Assuming a ps5 would release towards the end of 2020 if that's when it releases then that's enough time for a part per year starting next year before the machine arrives. Doubt we'll be that lucky though but it's possible.
Sales not slowing down till 2020? Considering 2017 is the year where there have been the most quality games this generation, 2018-2020 will only get better. I can see PS4 hitting upwards to 80+ million. far surpassing PS3.
The PS4 is gonna hit triple digits easily. I just wanna see if it comes close to the PS2.
That would only be the case if PS continues to manufacture/ship the PS4 after the PS5 comes out.
The PS4 will continue to be sold after the launch of the PS5. Especially for South America, India, Southeast Asia; same reason why PS3 games continue to be released in 2017.
I agree, the PS4 is far from done, no need for the PS5 yet.
I agree with Dr. Evil on this one...
Cool Patcher, I've already been saying that for the past 2 years
Oh please stfu michael pachter... If you had to bet you would be wrong... 2020 will be 7 years after the ps4 and 4 years after the pro. The pro came 3 years after the ps4 and the ps5 will be no different. 3 years after the pro is plenty enough time... In two years the base ps4 could be 199 and the pro 249... My guess is that fall next year they will announce the ps5 with a fall 2019 release date... All you ppl saying 2019 is too early most likely havent had a ps4 since day one and will get murdered by the resounding cant waits and ppl excited to see sonys new tech. Most ppl will have a 4k tv and sony will prob provide a playstation that can do native 4k 60 (uncompromised 4k) day one.
This video explains really well why it's better to wait a bit longer: https://youtu.be/uXWnHl6MCy...
LOL you honestly think they're going to announce new hardware smack dab in the middle of fall? That would potentially kill their holiday sales. At the earliest, they will hold a special event in January, like they did for PS4, and then launch in November. I could be as early as 2019 but 2020 is a possibility as well, depending on how well the PS4 continues to do.
Hope so. Seems like the perfect year.
Hopefully 2020 then :)
3 whole years away... Game On!!
Didn't this clown say that it would release in 2018/2019?
He thought the XBX was a "Beast".
Yea not sure why people listen to this jackass, the video game industry is a very hard business to predict and this guy is just a business man, not a gamer.
He claims to be a gamer, he just isn't good at his job. After all he works on Wall Street. King of the put your money here, loses 70 percent, oh it's better now, put your money here, lose another 70 percent, hey don't worry it's safe now.... 2017... clock ticking. In other words, it doesn't matter if you're wrong on Wall Street, everyone is wrong on Wall Street.
As long is really powerful i don't mind waiting, this time i want the console that will destroy all consoles
2020 sounds good even though this guy usually never has a clue. Just look at that pic. lol
Sooner the better as far as I’m concerned (no interest in the upgrades) but sooner means higher price point if they want to make it a worthwhile ‘next-gen’ system, which I’ve no problem with.
Well ... Sony´s CEO of Japan kinda let that slip thru : "We´re only half way in our cycle..." during the TGS P.C ... so guess we´re getting 2013 - 2016 Amateur PS4 2016 - 2019 Pro PS4 ... 2020 seems like a good year to launch their 5th console (hopefully by then we get a nice generational leap in terms of EVERYTHING) >SSD 1TB bare minimum >CPU with enough juice ... even an i5 750 (from 2010?) at 4Ghz has more grunt than the jaguar. 16 Thread or more ... >RAM same design as the PS4 (unified), 4 to 6GB for the System and useless millennial Apps ... + 16Gb for Game. 24Gb overall seems feasible, i would guess 20Gb unified GDDR5x should be enough >GPU more efficient Wattage:Performance ... maybe a switch like Docking-station? Portable limited to FHD60fps with 6TFlops, docked 20+ ... and everyone can pick their Docking-station of choice (Amateur or Pro Edition) $399 - $599 >Retro-chip built in PS1/PS2/PS3/PS4 BC ... so we can avoid, the same shaite this before it goes out of hand >PS3 like Menu ... focus on swift/fast .. i don´t give a wet [email protected]#@ about thumbnails of games i put in or what not ... >DS5 without any stupid gimmicks (touch-pad) ... longer duration, keep the same build quality (improve the sticks). >built in Toaster for my yummy Toasts >built in coffee maker as well >a hand sanitizer would be nice to have >built in bitcoin miner, so i don´t have to work anymore and can live off da-bitcoinings earrings :P >a flesh-light adapter for the DS5 ... Dunno what tech we have now, that can fit onto an APU for 2019/2020. It better come 4 to 5 times the power of the XBX (currently soon the most powerful console with 6TFlops ... and ~5.5TFlops peak values) = 20TFlops should be possible, with desktop chips having 15? now ... dunno if we can shrink them til then. CPU at 4K will play even less of a role, at that resolution you need more GPU>CPU.
If you're expecting an SSD, hybrid design and retro-chip then you're going to be disappointed.
Where do people keep coming from with SSD talk? We are not getting a 1TB SSD in a console. Stop with that right now.
Yeah, at best there will be a boot SSD for the firmware
... kinda obvious reading the last few points, that it was meant "satirical". But i don´t see why a PS5 could not have an SSD by then. They´re stupidly cheap now, with discount prices ... a 1TB SSD will drop fast in price until 2020. 500Gb mechanical drives should be removed once and for all times, maybe an SSHD 4TB will do as an Hybrid (dunno about the performance of these though). The PS2 had a "retro" chip in it, same with the PS3 ... i´m sure they got some of those lying around or still have the blueprints of those chips ;=) all they gotta do is add a tiny pcb (maybe via usb addon?), with all the "retro chips" on it, with basic upsampling and filtering ... nothing fancy. They did it 17 years ago (PS2 < PS1 chip), they did it with the PS3 (2006, PS3 < PS2 + PS1). There is no excuse to have 2 little chips on the PCB for PS1 and PS2 games. PS3 and PS4 games is an entirely different story.
I see them releasing the ps5 after the PS4 breaks past 110million,I think they'll be satisfied and it will continue on selling and end maybe at 120
Sounds about right. 2019 wouldn't surprise me either.
Obvious bet. Only those who believe that XBX is a turnaround thinks that PS5 would be released before that.
Thank you for your most obvious answer, Pachter.
Pachter might come ..sometime in the near future.
No kiddin, 2020 seems pretty fn obvious. 1. No need to interrupt the locomotive that is the PS4. 2. 2020 is apparently the year cable TV goes 4K. 3. 2020 is 25 years from the release of the original PlayStation in the US.
I've been thinking for a long while how it would awesome to release a PS5 in time for PlayStation's 25th Anniversary! 😍
This from the same guy always predicting that there wont be a next console generation. My bet is on 2019 personally
People dont seem to understand fall 2019 is 6 years since the base ps4 launched... 6 years is forever in the tech world
I would prefer 2019 myself. But only if it's actually completed without rushing to hit the shelves.
That and it's a REAL generational leap from PS4/Pro, meaning it contains a significantly faster cpu.
Yeah, 2019 or 2020 is the safe bet. Honestly, Sony may not know for sure yet themselves and may be waiting to see if the Xbox One X or Switch impact their momentum. If the PS4 continues to sell the same without slowing down they may draw it out an extra year, but if sales slow down as the market becomes saturated a 2019 release is likely. I don't get why people want longer and longer console generations. If they released new consoles every 5 years instead of every 7 it'd only cost an extra $30 a year or so over thirty years. That's only half the cost of a new game . . . a price I'd gladly pay to have my games built for more up-to-date hardware. Microsoft really should have waited a year and released an Xbox One successor instead of the X.
To be fair if Pachter was a betting man he would be in a lot of debt right now.
AMD only have 1 APU suitable for consoles in the roadmap, its called RavenRidge, its Ryzen5/Vega 56 mobile APU 4 cores/8threads, 10.5tf and at pax west an amd exec stated in futre "its the perfect evolution for consoles of the future" so id bet my house the ps5 gets powered by raven ridge, if only because its the only apu amd have coming suitable for consoles.
But which cpu will compliment it? Thats what I want to know.
It'll come out when around that time, the tech is out 7nm, ready for mass production, and cheap enough to make the consoles viable. It doesn't make sense until this time. Not just on the GPU side, but CPU. It may or may not be 2020, could be later. PS4 (like earlier Playstations) will continue to be sold years after, just like always.
Possibly.. We're going on 2018 now so 2 years seems about right.. Im curious to see what they release but im still content with current gen for now..
It would be 3 years if it comes out the same time of year they usually do, which is a couple months from now.
I think a good indicator to what the PS5 will be is to play close attention to AMD's chip planned release and manufacturing roadmaps leading upto 2020. the base PS4 & XB1 was launched back in holiday 2013 and running off semi-customized hardware from 2012 or 11. AMD's road map says Sony's PS5 hardware should be based around AMD's "Navi" architecture at either 14nm or at 7nm, possibly HBM2 memory *but I doubt it , due to cost. Vega architecture is a sure bet, but an advanced version than whats out now. https://www.techpowerup.com... I highly doubt Sony would use separate Cpu/Gpu chips *due to heat dissipation and stick with soc APU's and the roadmap for those indicate PS5's apu may come from "Snowy Owl" or "Grey hawk'. Guess we'll see. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-...
That's my guess.
Don't think sony needs a new consule yet 2019 or 2020 would seem about right. If the xbox1 wasn't so bad MS would of waited as well.
You guys forget that ps4 is x86 now. So I'd say the ps5 will be an evolution of the ps4 but fully backwards compatible with the ps4 from the get-go. Doesn't make sense to completely change the architecture again.