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Market Analyst Firm Expects Nintendo to sell 130 Million Switches by 2022

"The Nintendo Switch has had a pretty good year so far and is believed to have already sold over 5 million units worldwide. There is no doubt that the Switch should outsell the Wii U with no problem but a certain Market Analyst thinks the Switch could be one of the top selling consoles of all time."

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PhoenixUp86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

Whoa slow down there. NS is still selling at a slower pace than PS4 in the same timeframe, and PS4 itself isn't even going to reach 130 million within its first five years. No reason to believe that NS can do a better job at that

Erik735786d ago (Edited 86d ago )

Nintendo switch is outselling ps4 by more than twice in Japan

Also, Nintendo can't produce as much as Sony was able too .

Rimeskeem86d ago

1. Japan is one country

2. Well that's Nintendos fault, makes it hard for them to sell more

Erik735786d ago (Edited 86d ago )

1. Japan is one big country and the third largest economy in the world and very important for gaming if not more important for mobile gaming than America is

2. Yes it is and it's not able to produce the amount gamers are demanding but if it keeps up and it will they will be able to meet it in years

VenomSnakeRisingX86d ago

I love how you just ignored the entire world in that equation. Math tells us this isn't likely

fiveby986d ago

Nintendo Switch selling well in no way diminishes the awesome job Sony is doing. I have both as I prefer PS4 for home console gaming but Switch on the go is pretty sweet. I imagine Mario title and witch sales this holiday shopping season in the west will be very high. PS4 will sell great too. They both serve slightly different audiences with some crossover. And Japan is a huge gaming market for sure which loves mobile.

UltraNova86d ago

Even if MS and Sony stopped selling consoles today, there's no chance in hell Nintendo could sell 130 million in 4 years...thats 35+ million a year!

Analysts..

leoms86d ago

bruh, there is no way to spin this. You can't sell 130 mil in Japan and anywhere else the ps4 is outselling the switch.

Neonridr86d ago

Japan accounts for a huge chunk of hardware sales. Just because consoles don't traditionally sell well in Japan doesn't mean that the Switch will follow suit. Clearly the Switch is selling like a handheld there, and the 3DS is over 25 million there alone. And this is one country.

indyman7786d ago (Edited 86d ago )

AWE SNAP the minimizing control force is not going to like this!!!

AWE SNAP a real Analyst has common sense?

AWE SNAP aren't these the same guys that fanboys attacked when they said wii was going to sell big while everyone else was saying it's too soon hold your horses!

AWE SNAP SNAP SNAP......Pop corn please.

oh yeah one last thing. I'm saving this article so I can click it and look at all the nay say-er comments and throw them right back in your lying faces because all of you nay say-er are at every turn minimizing sales, and putting Nintendo down, and later saying you didn't say that. Already at 5 million and have not had there first holiday season yet.

more popcorn please!

85d ago
KwietStorm85d ago

I'm the best basketball player *in my house*

rainslacker85d ago

Are the Japanese sales somehow making it sell more than the PS4 did worldwide in the same time frame to make it so your comment actually counters the original posters argument that the PS4 won't hit 130 million in 5 years time?

Dark_Knightmare285d ago (Edited 85d ago )

Your comment way down below is full of such fanboy bullcrap it's sickening. First off the pro and ps vr aren't failures considering ps vr is the best selling vr device out there and 1out of 5 PS4 sold are pros. Your comment about Nintendo games reviewing better is bullcrap because like I've told you a few times before but obviously you like living in the past the ps has had more high scoring games in the last twenty years than Nintendo who comes in second from the metacritic study so yeah join us in the present bro. Finally you can try to spin it all you want but the switch does not have it's own market lol and is def competing with PS4 and Xbox and then having the best I.p is preference but once again it's been shown with cold hard facts that Sony has had the better games in the last twenty years. You love Nintendo and that's fine but be a fan and not a fanboy because people being fanboys is what turned Nintendo from being the absolute top dog in gaming to being second and third fiddle to other consoles

mikeslemonade85d ago (Edited 85d ago )

Won't happen. The games look bad on a big screen.

And to think it will sell 30 more million units than Nintendos best selling console ever is dumb. Just stop it...

+ Show (10) more repliesLast reply 85d ago
shuvam0986d ago

I doubt it will beat the 3DS...
I feel it is more portable than the Switch...
The Switch has a lot of fundamental issues, which will eventually lead to slower sales unless worked on...

PlayStation_586d ago

"Common Sense Firm Expects Nintendo To Sell 40-50 Million Switches By 2022"

Erik735786d ago (Edited 85d ago )

I think the ps4 actually does.Let's see:

1.Ps4 pro and its new virtual reality headset are a absolute failure with the pro not differentiating itself ENOUGH from the base ps4 and look bad compared to xbox x while the virtual headset is just overall crappy with crappy games on it giving consumers no reason to get it.

2. Constantly not reviewing as well as Nintendo games are

3. Nintendo while having its own market you have the ps4 competing with steam boxes, gaming pc, and xbox one. MAny gamers are coming to PC and its eating into future ps4 sales and just in general traditional console sales. Sony is backed into a corner here, a console market that is getting eat up by PC and the mobile handheld not being a viable market for them because Nintendo just has better IPs and owns it. They know if they tried it again it would end very similar to how ps vita did.

I know many many people who are getting the switch and have NEVER OWNED a hand held device.....that enough is a sign this thing is going to be huge. Gamers that never got handheld consoles are getting it on top of the ones that are going to get it.

PlayStation_585d ago (Edited 85d ago )

This annoying, spoiled, bratty little kid ("Erik7357") clearly has some major brain damage... X P'

shuvam0985d ago

@Erik7357

I talk from my personal experience...
I owned a Tegra Note for 3 years. I absolutelty loved that device initially. But about a year later and I gave up on that device and gave it to my mom. There was no sense of portability when I was carrying around a rather huge device just for the sake of gaming. I believe the Switch will saturate to level where it will sell decently. Hardcore fans will go for the console for around a year. It will be hard to sustain sales after that. I know I will get the Switch. But its hardly going to leave that dock.

BTW why did you bring PS4 into the context?? I never did...

+ Show (1) more replyLast reply 85d ago
Lonnie1886d ago

Plus ps2 is the best console of all time with 160mil

fiveby986d ago

True PS2 sold great. Different time and different marketplace though. Mobile and online gaming were not what it is today so the competitive marketplace was a significantly different landscape compared to today. The article was brief but Credit Suisse is a reputable source and I don't think they pull their sales forecast out of thin air. But that said it is just a forecast and could be off.

_-EDMIX-_86d ago

@five,-yeah I don't really care where the reputable source is because didn't Nintendo themselves say they believed they were going to sell 100 million wii u?

I mean I agree that the PlayStation 2 was a different time but why are you also ignoring that right now for portable gaming it is a different time than last generation? Okay so if you could understand the PlayStation 2 was a different time. Where it moved 160 million I'm pretty damn positive you could also agree that this is currently a different time period Where a portable cannot move such numbers.

The DS sold about 150 million units so you're right that was a different time, so the 3DS sold about 65 million...

So why exactly did you just ignore the current situation but also bring up the PlayStation 2 was in a different time. But conveniently ignore this for the switch?

The way I see it is even if you add 3DS and Wii U sales you're looking at about 80 million that does not come close to something crazy like a hundred and thirty million in the only way you actually gain such market share is you must get consumers that ordinarily did not buy Nintendo products and I don't see any evidence in terms of software to suggest someone is buying a Nintendo switch that never bought a 3DS or Wii U or Wii or anything like that.

Zero

We don't even have software numbers to even suggest such something so crazy.

I do not see them getting those customers back no different than you don't see PlayStation 4 doing PlayStation 2 numbers.

I mean I agree with you in the respect that you understand that it was a different time where PlayStation 2 moved those numbers so I'm not entirely sure why you're jumping on board any person that's saying it could move 130 million units even when the market not even slightly suggesting such shares exist for such a laughably ridiculous figure.

jmc888886d ago (Edited 86d ago )

At one time Nintendo had a handheld AND console lines that when together, sold about 250 million units in their respective generation (bit of overlap, but basically one generation).

Wii U + 3DS sold about 85 million units. This was a disaster for Nintendo.

Now they basically have one line, plus the petering out of the 3DS. But Nintendo has put all their eggs in one basket.

Not two. ONE. That ONE line must sell like the TWO before it. 130 million units would be DECENT. Not great. Decent. It still would represent only about 55 percent of their one time max capability.

That is, if it even hits 130 million. It's still selling to early adopters. The people who religiously buy any Nintendo hardware. It's still price well above its competitors.

It still doesn't have much out to play on it, especially if you have a Wii U. Portability is a niche, most people don't care about it and many see it as a minus when it comes to gaming (because of the compromises such devices and Switch indeed made to be portable).

Also just because someone puts out game that are running at 160-200FPS on PC with modern systems, on engines not many devs use (id or even UE4) doesn't mean that Switch can handle proper AAA ports.

Even Wii U got some of the biggest AAA games out there. Multiple Assassin's Creeds, Call of Duty's, and Batmans. It even got Mass Effect 3. The Creeds and CoD's launched roughly the same time as the other platforms.

Switch has it's positives and negatives. It's negatives keep most gamers who buy consoles and PC's from buying one. Those that desire portability highly are basically it.

Plus there's still a chance that Nintendo does create a second handheld. A cheaper one. If they release one, it will absolutely cannibalize sales.

They need to satisfy demand for Switch as fast as possible. They need a large userbase to convince people to make games on it, and continue making games on it. It's also always going to be more expensive then a PS4/XB1. There's just no way around that. It will only be cheaper then Pro/X1X and their eventual replacements PS5/X2. It will still have competition from smartphones, tablets, etc.

Meanwhile with only what, about 5-6 million sold, it's quite a leap to say it'll be at 130 million by 2022. 5 years and ~125 million more sales? 25 million a year? That means from now until 2022 it would have to sell TWO AND A HALF TIMES what its sold since launch per month, every month. We're talking 1.90+ million a month, every month through 2022. It costs $299, plus all the accessories, a pro controller and/or additional joycon, 128-256gb's storgae, plus the higher priced carts, plus even a online charge of $19.99 a year.

Some people are literally paying X1X prices to get that. Literally. That's not conducive to 1.90+ million a month in sales, each and every month for over 4 years. Price cuts aren't coming anytime soon. All those accessories are still going to be a thing all this time.

We also don't even know how much Nintendo can ramp up production. Every month that 1.90+ million Switches aren't sold, means to make that prediction true, subsequent months have to sell more. If they can't ramp up production this holiday season, that might mean it has to be 2+ million per month.

Also who is say what the landscape is 4 years from now? Are devs still going to want to be putting their stuff on such weak sauce hardware? Will Nintendo itself upgrade the Switch and/or put out a competitor before 2022? Lots of stuff can happen here.

Dalailana86d ago

The switch is facing shortages and was launched in March. Slow month
The PS4 launched during the holidays biggest shopping season of the year.
Big difference.

Wait until the switch gets its first holiday rush, the picture will be clearer.

indyman7786d ago

LOL Stop being reasonable Dalailana! Your wasting your time.....you would expect people to have some foresight right? But non is to be found, they will do this all the way past 100 million. Remember wii? They did it all the way to 100 million!

And literally they NEVER even after 100 million gave it props. They can't be reasoned with.

fiveby986d ago

I think one reason it may outsell is over time it will displace the 3DS for many people. Even the last Nintendo Direct the focus was more on Switch vs 3DS. I think a year from now sales will continue to accelerate for the Switch worldwide.

ABizzel186d ago

Time for an analyst to get demoted.

It's going to severely struggle to reach 130m lifetime sales let alone in 5 years.

Realistically best case scenario we're looking at 25m in JP, 25m NA, and 20m EU, aka 70m in 5 years if sales continue to stay consistent, which they should with 2018 having a potential Pokemon, 2019 having a price drop with Switch slim & XL, 2020 bringing a few more new IP's, and 2021 wrapping up the brand, and 2022 being the last good year of sales.

But if the hype for Switch dies down then 20m JP, 20m NA, and 15m EU (55m) is more likely in 5 years.

I'm hoping they kill it and hit 70m, because 55m puts them back in 3DS sales territory, but both are still good numbers.

Lonnie1885d ago

Your a better analyst then this lame saying 130mil, I was like huh how??lol

blank_keys86d ago

I swear this site will defend anything and everything on PS4. And I'm a PS4 owner myself.

Liqu1d85d ago

How is he defending PS4?

pwnsause_returns86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

for them to say that it will aell 130 Million lifetime means they know something we dont know....Ill say this though in my opinion, at some point down the line, Nintendo will kill off the 3DS and they will go with a single console down the line, which is the switch, and i know that a real pokemon game along side other well known portable titles will come to the system.

The switch is a good system BTW, they just need to address some of the issues that hinder it, like....its network and that fallacy they call voice chat.... oh and the battery, but thats nothing, that can get fixed with a system revision...

Nintentional85d ago

PS4 was released in the holiday season, Switch hasn't had a holiday season yet and it's selling really well. It will definitely outsell the PS4.

himdeel85d ago (Edited 85d ago )

I hope there's something better than the Switch by 2022.

3-4-585d ago

Nintendo can't get the chips because the company is making more of them for Apple than Nintendo.

That is the constraint.

they could have sold 18-20 million Switches this year if not for that. There never would have been a shortage.

one chip.

Trekster_Gamer85d ago

It won't, not by a Longshot....
Weak hardware and hardly any third party support will kill the buzz soon enough.

Nintentional85d ago

Because historically it's always the most powerful console that sells the best 😑 /s

trumpwonstopcrying85d ago (Edited 85d ago )

Consider the possibility of phasing out the 3ds eventually and the switch becomes the primary home console and handheld...then I could see 130 million being possible. Pokemon games only on the switch would be a major sales increase. Keep in mind we haven't even seen how much the demand will go up after a price drop as well. I for one am waiting till I can snag a switch with a game for $300.

+ Show (10) more repliesLast reply 85d ago
Travis370886d ago

I highly doubt it'll even sell 100 million. More like 70-80 million by then. The 3DS is around 65 million and that was released in 2011.

Kratos_Kart200786d ago

shhhhh don't show logic in N4G...

goken86d ago

yes. i agree with you.
these analyst are making huge assumptions here. for example there is every chance Microsoft and Sony would release a hybrid console as well, and if this was backward compatible with ps4 and Xbo... i bet it would have some sort of impact on demand for the switch

SenorFartCushion86d ago

The DS has sold 150 million on its own.

You could arguably add the 3ds in to that bunch, which would make it 220+ million sold.

Remember, you can't judge this as a home console, it's 100% handheld and able to dock, it's more a portable.

A Nintendo portable that is powerful can sell that much.

_-EDMIX-_86d ago

??? Okay so we might as well start adding PlayStation 4 sales to PlayStation 3 sales too? So add 360 sales to Xbox One sales? I don't know why you disregarded that the people who bought 3DS clearly probably owned DS.

I also don't understand why you just ignored that the 3DS sold significantly less than the DS..... Even when you add up every one that bought a Wii U and a 3DS together you don't even come close to such a figure.

Nyxus86d ago

Why would you add 3DS? That makes no sense.

SenorFartCushion85d ago (Edited 85d ago )

Because the 3ds is more akin to the PSPro. A new version of the DS, not a sequel.

Shares an almost identical name, operates the same way, plays the same games and the only thing stopping the 3ds games from playing on the ds was the 3d element. They shared the majority of the library.

Nyxus85d ago

@ Senor: No. The 3DS is the successor to the DS. It shares the name 'DS' because it's still a dual screen, same way the Game Boy Advance was still a Game Boy but also it's successor.

UCForce85d ago

Now you are just miscalculated.

Chevalier85d ago

Its no where near as portable. I have one and while I enjoy it, its not at a size I can fit in my pocket. Logic suggest its pretty unlikely to sell 130 million in that short a span. No system has sold 100 million in 5 years.

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DigitalRaptor86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

That sounds really off the mark.

I'd guess at something like 45 million by the end of 2019. Maybe 80 million by 2022.

Erik735786d ago

Hmmm n4g commenter or market analysis who's more educated on this here?

Nyxus86d ago

You don't think 130 million sounds a bit... out there?

mkis00786d ago

So then you believe everything Pachter says? He's an analyst too.

leoms86d ago

certainly not he bias nintendo fanboy

Gh05t86d ago

Data does not equal Information, which does not equal knowledge, which does not equal wisdom.

The analysts are calling it a handheld now (or rather predicting it will sell like one)... sure great but Nintendo is competing against itself then and there is no mention of how they analyze their way around Nintendo offering two competing "handheld" machines.

jmc888886d ago

How about the fact you understand that market analysts are consistently wrong. They are part of the fail upwards crew.

Didn't see the Dot-com that anyone with a brain saw by 1997 when they saw tons of companies losing money, with no viable plan while worth as much as blue chip companies? Have a promotion.
Didn't see housing in a bubble in 2001 let alone in 2008? Have a promotion.
Don't see that since 2008 all we have is an ever growing worldwide central bank money printing episode concluding in a massive crash and/or hyperinflation in 20XX? Have a promotion.

Just look at Pachter, the reason he is so wrong, is because he is a wall street analyst. They're jokes.

In life, learn that titles and positions doesn't denote ability. Doesn't denote trustworthiness or even what level of knowledge they have.

There are a lot of highly educated idiots. There are a lot of not so educated, but practical geniuses.

Considering how wrong wall street analysts have been about everything this century and then some, I seriously think you should reconsider ever using such a phrase again.

Liqu1d85d ago

These analysts can make silly predictions.

http://www.develop-online.n...

Dragonscale85d ago

Pachter's a market analyst. Means jack tbh.

85d ago
UCForce85d ago

Getting cocky, aren't ya ?

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TGGJustin86d ago

I agree that there is no way the Switch sells that much. Some analysts just take things too far.

The 10th Rider86d ago

I agree that the 130 mil in 5 years seems way too high. Nintendo would pretty much have to double their sales in the second year and then continue to see an increase the next few years after that.

However it's not like these companies pull figures from their a**. Companies like Credit Suisse are literally paid by people to tell them what to invest in. One horribly wrong prediction could destroy many people's trust in them and hurt the company. They undoubtedly have survey data and analysis leading them to believe that it will sell incredibly well. (It is important to note though that the sales number itself isn't what matters to their audience, it's that Nintendo's stock continues to grow.)

130 is 5 years seems awfully high and unrealistic and I agree, but long term sales is going to depend on when Nintendo replaces it.

The first thing the Switch has going for it is that it appeals to fans of both Nintendo handhelds and Nintendo consoles. Now some people may say there's some crossover there, but in my experience I really don't know many people that own the latest Nintendo handheld and the latest Nintendo home console. The people I know tend to own one or the other. That right there should be 60-75 million sales.

According to the article the Switch is selling more like a handheld, which tend to reach peak sales later in life. Meaning we could see the consistently increasing sales like I mentioned at the beginning of the post. I'm still skeptical of that but it is possible. One of the reasons handhelds sell that way is because people are more likely to buy multiple, or to replace theirs. I've honestly never run into families that's bought multiple of a home console unless theirs dies. However I've known many families that own two or three 3DS's. Personally I wouldn't buy two of a home console, but the Switch is something I could see myself and my significant other each owning one.

The Switch also appeals to a crowd outside of the typical Nintendo crowd. Typically new experiences sell well. The Wii, the DS, and even Kinect all sold incredibly well. Although it may never reach Wii or DS craze, the Switch will likely tap into some of that crowd because it's the first real multiplayer portable. That's sure to drew attention when kids take it to school and play with friends.

Also a common complaint among gamers is that they wouldn't buy a Wii U just for the one or two Nintendo games they wanted . . . Well, the Switch getting Nintendo's handheld games and console games. The Bravely Default devs have already moved on to the Switch and so has Pokemon. The Switch could also see games like Professor Layton, Ace Attorney, Youkai Watch, Inazuma Eleven and many others. Right now it's a $300 Zelda and Mario machine with a few other games to pad out the library, but just looking at the currently rapidly expanding lineup that's going to change fast. 3-4 years down the line the Switch will have access to Nintendo's library of home console games and handheld games all on one console that can be played at home or on the go . . . and it's price will likely be down to $200-250. Any gamer has to acknowledge that as long as Nintendo continues to support it with their handheld and home console teams, and they manage to attract the 3DS third party devs, that will be an incredibly attractive package.

With all those in mind 100 million in sales in 5 years isn't so far fetched.

However that is all just conjecture. I'm not trying to say it *will* sell 100 million in 5 years, I'm just trying to bring up some reasoning that shows why the Credit Suisse came to the number that they did. IMO, it will likely sell 60-100 million in five years. Total sales will depend on when Nintendo replaces it.

flabergaster12386d ago

You really put a lot of effort into this. Kudos

The 10th Rider86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

@flabergaster123,

Yeah, I mean it's not some random people pulling numbers out of nowhere. There's reasons they put out the number that they did. I don't agree that it will sell 130 million in five years, but it's stupid to call it ridiculous without looking at why they came to that number. Also, at the end of the day Credit Suisse doesn't care about the number that is sold, so long as Nintendo's stock keeps rising and they continue to be successful. Getting caught up in the exact number they chose is dumb because the message they're trying to tell their audience isn't the exact number that the Switch is going to sell, it's that it's going to do well and Nintendo's stock is likely to keep rising.

EDIT: The other big thing is Nintendo getting a tencent game. They're probably under the impression that Nintendo is looking at a Chinese release over the next couple years, which is entirely possible after they get stock under control. Getting Chinese developers on board and releasing there could add 20-30 million to the sales.

Concertoine85d ago (Edited 85d ago )

It all depends on whether or not there's a successor to the 3ds. If they do - they screw themselves.

If nintendo puts all their cards on Switch it will have a steady stream of games for years to come. They could maybe release versions of it that are more catered to on-the-go gaming for Japan and the handheld fans in the US. Once it goes down in price eventually i see it skyrocketing.

Keep in mind - this is Switch's first holiday season thus far and even the Wii U had some killer holiday seasons.

Thatguy-31086d ago

So more than the wii???? Hahaha the funny thing is Nintendo fans will flood this article believing it and downvoting anyone that doubts it. The switch will be lucky if it passes 70+ million

wonderfulmonkeyman86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

If you looked at the reasons why, maybe you wouldn't believe it would only be luck if it managed that.

Although the likelihood if it happening within ten years is far better than it happening within the next 5, it isn't impossible for the Switch to accomplish it if it continues getting big hit titles month over month and improves some of the things the system offers while solving the supply constraint issues. [Netflix is rumored to be on the way, and a messaging system would do wonders]

It's selling to both console and handheld Nintendo fans, so the right key titles hitting it so that there's at least one or two big games per month, it COULD result in a slow upsurge in sales month over month that would lead to outdoing the Wii.

It isn't impossible.
Unlikely, yes. But NOT impossible by any means. Only a troll, or someone with a huge anti-Nintendo vendetta like Masterfox, would be saying otherwise.

VenomSnakeRisingX86d ago

"It's selling to both console and handheld Nintendo fans, so the right key titles hitting it so that there's at least one or two big games per month, it COULD result in a slow upsurge in sales month over month that would lead to outdoing the Wii"

That doesn't make sense though ,Wii U and 3DS combined didn't outsell the Wii.

yomfweeee86d ago

Nintendo Switch could sell a billion in 5 years.

It isn't impossible now is it? Doesn't mean I'm not an idiot for saying it.

InTheLab86d ago (Edited 86d ago )

I think you forget who the fans of the wii were. They are a bit unreliable and a tablet isn't trendy like motion controls were.

Also, the Anti-Nintendo thing isn't real. No one wants the Switch to fail but based on Nintendo's track record, it's not impossible to believe Nintendo will choke.

Gh05t86d ago

"It's selling to both console and handheld Nintendo fans"

Yes but The Big N already has a handheld device that it refuses to let go so that they can focus on the one device. Until N decides that the 3DS is done there own market will be split between two devices that cater to the same market, that market being handheld devices.

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Shuckylad86d ago

70 million. That's still