The PS4 is off to an amazing start, but the market conditions dictate that it will never beat the PS2 in terms of sales.
Way, way too early to come to that conclusion. The PS4 hasn't even received a single price drop yet
Which is impressive at that xD
Id love to get the lottery numbers for the whole week from the writer
@ Cindy-rella Come on, be a little more reasonable. The fact that Sony has the mobile-tablet gaming market to stand in it's way is probably the only real point that the author made in this article. But that is still a very tangible obstacle that the PS2 did not have to contend with. I think the PS4 won't exactly surpass PS2 lifetime sales figures, but it could come really close to it. At the very least I think PS4 will outsell PS3 at the end of it's lifetime.
@Anorexorcist There is also the issue that it's unlikely the PS4 will be on the market as long as the PS2 was. The PS2 had a remarkably long life. Sure it wasn't selling nearly as much the last few years of it's life but it was still selling.
Actually its the mobile gaming market that is helping the PS4 grow very fast. From casual to hardcore hobbyists millions of gmaers are becoming.
@GearsdoodooBruh if you do the math 5 years = 60 months plus 6 more months = 66 months. Nice try though
@GearsdoodooBruh The PS2 did not sell 150 million in 66 months. Check your facts. That would be 27.27 million every year during those 5 years and 6 months. Never happened. It took the PS4 almost 2 years to hit 25 million. You think the PS2 vastly outpaced that?
@ Gearsdoodoobruh possible reason ps4 will never catch up or surpass ps2 1. cd technology was fresh and new back then im sure everyone was excited. 2. dvd playback technology was fresh and new back then everyone was probably saying what the Heck?? dvd player in a gaming system. 3. bluray technology is new but did not grab consumers attention as dvd did with ps2.i believe ps2 was more of a shocker,surprise than basic SNES console . 4. ps4 is a great system but times has changed. if ps4 made to 50 million sold this day and age that's a accomplishment by it's self.
@GearsdoodooBruh: Actually it took the PS2 5 years, 9 months to sell 100m units. They didn't hit 150m til the end of 2010. They hit 155m right as Sony discontinued the system on jan 4th 2013, over 12 years after the system released. The PS4 still has over 9 years to catch up.
I like to jump in with PS2 sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... I quote "The console sold slightly more than 500,000 units on its first day, in November 2000. This marked an industry record for the fastest-selling game console" and "Over 150 million units of PS2 hardware had been sold worldwide as of the end of 2010" which is more that your 5 years and 6/9 months imho It's still too early to tell especially when there are so many good games and peripherals (Morpheus) to come!
PS4 sells at a rate of 20M units a year x 5 years and that will be 100M by 2018. That is with no price cut. Give it another 3 years at $300 and its 160M easily. PS2 took 10 years to hit 150M sold. That is the math.
@GearsdoodooBruh It took 10 years for the PS2 to sell 155 millions. Also, the PS4 is at 25.3 millions right now, not 23 millions.
@DarkZane: It hit 155m just before Sony discontinued it in jan 2013. 12 years after launch.
I agree, I don't think it'll top the PS2. You can see how last generation Sony lost a ton of market share compared to the PS2 era and I think it is unlikely they will ever be in a better position. Then again there are more gamers now than ever before so time will tell, but if I was betting, my money would be on PS2 remaining King.
@gearswoow er what ever, dude you just got splooged all over your face with the truth. the ps2 sold like gangbusters and the ps4 is selling even better. #dealwithit.
Seriously...where did this guy got the "fact" that the PS2 sold 150mil in less than 6 years? It took almost 10 years for the PS2 although the last 3 years of its life was not so great due to the existence of the 7th gen consoles. But I think it did around 120mil before the PS3 was released.
@Gears I like how you are trying to tell people to do the math when you are saying it sold 150 million in 5 and a half years when it actually sold that in about 12 years.
This might help: http://s481.photobucket.com...
@DarkZane It's ~25 million "shipped", not retail sales. In fact, most of the so-called "sold through" numbers the fanboys love to tout are actually just estimates based on shipped numbers. They don't have actual hard sales numbers from retailers. Read the bottom fine print: http://www.jp.playstation.c...
@ AndrewLB does it matter? if its shipped or retail sales. to the company its sales as soon anyone buys it does not matter if its a store or if its you
@Miyamoto A consoles best years tends to be the first 2-3 years, saleswise. Hereafter the sales tend to drop off. source: http://ignorethecode.net/bl...
@ gears "Do the maths my friend, its not that hard" Although you seem to be struggling a bit. "Go ahead and look it up" You honestly think most people here haven't? You need to post evidence when you quote numbers otherwise you're just making them up. Now where did you look this up? Awwww, you're out of bubbles, there's a surprise.
I can understand people in here getting the figures wrong, people love to fluff the numbers to their liking on this site. But the actual article got it wrong too which is kind of blowing my mind, especially from a PS4 site. The ps2 sold 155 million in its lifetime. Apparently people here and the author of the article assumed that meant "when the ps3 was released". The ps2 was still being manufactured and still had games developed for it right up until 2013, fifa and pes being the last 2 games to come out for it. Thats 13 years, not 5. The article is absurd, it honestly doesn't think that with the size the industry is now versus how it was 10 years ago, the ps4 isn't going to outsell the ps2? Hell even the xb1 could outsell the ps2 in 13 years given how big this industry and its userbase has grown, assuming MS doesn't drop it like the original xbox.(JOKE! please dont burn me fanpeople)
This is absurd you naysayers need to know it took PS2 what 12 years to sell 150 mil or so. Now even though I agree that PS4 won't get to that in 10 years that's my opinion. The evidence against PS4s sales are completely illegitimate. Not saying that it's impossible I can happen I just doubt it the time and market is vastly different. Yes price drops and great software will achieve this feat. LMFAO 5+ years sold 150 units where are you people getting this from? If you just judge of the current sales track all the way through PS4 has out performed PS2 in every way.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum... And considering that Ps4 is currently outpacing Ps2, it's a pretty uneducated and baseless conclusion.
Those numbers from Zhuge Ex are amazing analysis. Unlike Pachter, who is a speculator, Zhuge Ex is an analyst. But the idiot mods at Neogaf banned him. They banned him for simple, unbiased reporting of real verifiable numbers. He currently has a 30 day ban There are already people questioning if EviLore did this because he (EviLore) is currently under the employ of a 3rd party that didn't like the influence Zhuge Ex's analysis was having and the picture it was painting to the Gaf audience. Considering Zhuge Ex has broken no rules whatsover, it is the only possiblility that fits the facts.
While at first I was turned off by the article. Then I actually read all the way through. The author is not referring to Sales lIke the title suggests. He is referring to units sold over the life of each PS2 and PS4 console. Which negates the click bait title. Using the word "outsell".
The only thing which would cause it to not match the PS2 if it keeps up the same pace, or improves which is common as a generation continues, is if they stop selling it sooner rather than later. The PS2 continued to sell a lot after the PS3 released and I believe it was discontinued in 2013. The math in the article doesn't really add up, and the time frame involved is skewed and not accurate at all.
At one point Wii was outpacing PS2. Same with DS. 3DS at one point was outpacing DS. None ever surpassed what they were outpacing at some point. More often then not it means little as the market slows down. I love my PS4 and all but it's too early to celebrate topping PS2 even if outpacing but only 2 years in.
Exactly, I see people comparing lifetime sales of the ps2 to the ps4, totally disregarding the exponential growth that happens on the back end of a systems life cycle....that's when the big numbers start rolling in, after price drops & with a huge library bolstering the system. The only thing that could hold the ps4 back from those kinds of numbers is the competition. Ps2 launched with virtually no direct competition, the dreamcast was floundering & Nintendo was offering a very different service than playstation at the time. By the time the Xbox rolled around, the ps2 was already the top dog so it basically ran unopposed that whole console generation, but now with direct competition with MS, we saw those same numbers divided between the two last gen, around 80 million per console. I don't think the split will be as even this gen, it'll be in Sonys favor by at least 25% or more, so I could see ps4 hit 100 mil & XBO hit 60-80 mil, but I think it'll be a shorter console cycle. Hopefully the console gaming market grows and both boxes hit ps2 numbers though!
Thanks for the kind words Morganfell. Great to see people from different websites are able to find the posts I make on NeoGAF useful. Although I would say that Pachter is also an analyst haha. The ban was because of posts I made in the ChinaJoy thread which were misunderstood by a moderator. I can't say I'm too pleased about the ban as this really was a misunderstanding and there was no reason for my ban. That being said I look forward to being able to post more shortly and hope that my posts continue to be well received.
@ZhugeEx, The fact the ban has not been lifted serves to show the arrogance employed by Gaf Mods and controlling Court Jester continues unabated. The ban is in the end a major disservice to the lesser number of Gaf visitors that go to the site because they genuinely care about games. I think of Pachter more as a sentationalist carny and a hawker rather than a person that employs statistics and logical probablilities to develop market analysis as well as predictions regarding trends. Speaking to his accuracy, I have seen better from a 20 year old daisy air rifle with bent sights :) On the other hand, your work is on the upper end of remarkable. Welcome aboard.
I think it's too soon, but the real reason it's going to struggle to beat PS2 is because PS2 had unheard of sells in EVERY region that to this day have still not bee challenged by any other console hardware. It sold around 55m in NA / EU, 25m in JP, and 25m around the rest of the world. The nest best selling console in each regions prior to that was NA: 360 49m EU: PS1 36m JP: PS1 / NES 20m Row: PS3 13m Even combined the 2nd highest selling consoles for those regions only equals 118m in sales. They have a real chance of beating the PS2's EU sales record (55m is a lot, but PS4 is completely dominating over there), but I don't think it'll beat US (45m - 50m vs 55m), or RoW (15m - 18m, vs 25m), absolutely won't beat JP (10m - 15m, vs 25m). I see PS4 selling 120m - 150m, as long as things continue to go well for them, they drop amazing genre defining games from 2016 - the end of it's life cycle, and they a have great price all generation. It'll best the 3rd best selling hardware almost guaranteed, and the 2nd best selling console without question.
lol what a bullshit article. the console has had no offical pricedrop. its still in early years with no killer killer games out and many people havent made the new gen jump. im not being funny but with it outselling other consoles by 2:1 i think its well on track to beat the ps2 for sales. Sony just has to keep the wheels moving and getting the big hitters out and breaking sales. i think by xmas and MS big games have hit(halo 5 and TR) we will have a good idea how its gonna go. i expect uncharted to make big console sales.
The reason I belive P4 won't outsell Ps2 is one simple reason, Ps2's lifetime support was long, I think at least a decade. Ps4's lifetime support won't be as long, now that Sony's no longer developing hardware from scratch like the earlier generations. AMD is sharing the financial burden of hardware so Sony no longer has to support it's console as long to make back it's profit margins. Bet we will be hearing tech leaks about Ps5 in around 2018.
What are u talking about? Sony has always supported their console for a long time. Even the "not so great selling" PS3 is on its 10th year already and Sony hasn't announce its discontinuation yet. So the chance that the PS4 will be supported long even after the release of the PS5 is very high.
Not to pick, but the PS3 launched 8 years, 8 months and 3 weeks ago on November 11th 2006. Sony shifted all first party support to the PS4 two and a half years ago. http://www.ign.com/articles... You may have a different definition of support.
@Death There's still games coming out for the PS3. Even though most of them are Japanese, but that is still support.
Here's the problem with this article: "And because of this, we’ve heard many proclaim that the PS4 will “outsell the PS2 during its lifetime”. That won’t happen. No matter how well the PS4 is doing right now — and it’s doing very well, practically obliterating the competition — it needs to sell 130+ million units in just 3-4 years." It took 12 years for the PS2 to sell 157m. The PS4 has to sell 130+ million in the next 10 years, not 3-4 years. How the hell did this get approved?
Yep and 11 years to reach 150M. http://techcrunch.com/2011/...
@BitbyDeath: The stupid thing is they actually acknowledge the PS4 is tracking 'ahead' of the PS2 at this point. This means they think the PS2 must have sold 130+m in the following 3-4 years. Even at 4 years that would mean they think the PS2 sold 32.5m a year. At 3 years it would be 43.3m a year. And then it sold Zero in the next 6 years! The PS4 is likely to be on the market for at least 12 years (just like the PS2), so the PS4 has to sell 13m a year. Doesn't sound so impossible now does it. LOL That's not to say the PS4 WILL reach 157m, just that the way they've arrived at their conclusion is almost cartoon like.
I think it might last longer than 12 years. Especially with PSNow being a thing. Eventually they'll be able to release a PS4 which is no bigger than a portable CD drive, or even a PSTV if they go all digital...or even a chromecast...or just build them into TV's for digital download stuff and PSNow, etc. PS4 is likely to become a huge platform that goes beyond the basic console. I also believe that this is the direction that MS wants to take, and eventually make the console more about a standardized set of hardware, or minimum requirements, as opposed to an actual console. It's what 3DO tried to do way back in the day, and it makes sense to open up the market in such a way. it's what 3DO was trying to do about 20 odd years ago. Funny how circular the video game industry is. Anyhow, the PS5 could just be a upgraded PS4 if they stay with the same technology, so the cost to make PS4's is going to keep going down as they keep upgrading the processors and chips. 12 years may seem like a long time when it comes to video games, but realistically, games have gotten to a point where there isn't huge improvements between generations, so the older generations could definately be sustained longer.
@rainslacker: I agree with pretty much everything you said. There's definitely the potential to stretch the lifecycle even longer. I can see the PS4 having a 15 year lifecycle easily with the PS5 (if it isn't PSNow) being backward compatible so that all of your PSN collection can be moved over, as well as hard copies of course.
How can the author know this? it's way too early right now, if it keeps up and let's say it gets a small 5%boost from China than I don't see a reason why it can't get to provide pass the ps2 sales ps2 was in the market for a while after ps3 launched so will the ps4 get the same amount of time? ps2 is a all time classic console IMO. it has some of my favorite memories. I hope ps4 can be as good for me and others. Sony had yet to disoppoint me so let's keep this thing rolling Sony has projected that ps4 will be at 33 or 36 million by March 2016, that's just amazinb. sorry I don't have an axact
It also hasn't had anywhere close to 12 years on the market either. Lots of people seem to disregard the fact that almost half of PS2's sales came after the PS3 released.
PS2 reached 100 million units sold in 2005 and in March 2007 was at 118 million. PS2 was probably at 113 or 114 million units sold when the PS3 was released in November 2006. PS2 had less than 1/3 of it's sales after the PS3 was released.
Nope, ps4 won't outsell ps2. The only reason why ps2 sold 150 millions is because piracy. No way you can play pirated disc on ps4. I know because I have my own game shop(srs)...
The PS4 has already been hacked and games are being pirated. Or did you not get the memo? http://www.ign.com/boards/t...
Sorry... nothing to do with piracy at all. It did HAVE Piracy but that isnt what made it sell well... it sold well in the USA because it was home to a huge number of sports and action games including being the console for choice for games like Madden, it sold well in asia because it was the home of final fantasy, and a shitload of other RPGs, and yes it was an extremely cheap DVD Player which for a lot of people early on was a selling point. It also came in riding the success of the PS1 which is iconic and in most of the world also sold amazingly for many of the same reasons (obviously minus DVD Support but for many in the 90s it was their first CD player from what I remember in my own city). It had very very little to do with piracy, Im sure you could argue some 5 or even 10% of its sales after year 4 were due to piracy but for MUCH of the time the machine was popular and selling well ability to copy and modify consoles for piracy was outside most peoples reach or comfort zone... especially with so many used games available for so cheap near the end... it was very niche. AS evidenced by strong software sales.
If piracy were the deciding factor, the original Xbox would've done much better and DreamCast would've had much longer legs. Both of those platforms were incredibly susceptible to piracy. For most games, you literally just needed to burn a CD on DreamCast and you could readily burn a game to the Xbox hard drive with a mod chip. I'm pretty sure PS2 just had, you know, a ton of games worth playing that you could only play on PS2. I'd say that's far more indicative of its sales success than piracy.
Andrew, what nonsense are you getting on with? The PS4 was never hacked. [email protected] you.
to early indeed
I'm guessing it won't, but to say it isn't possible is definitely jumping to conclusions.
LMAO youd like to get a whole week of lottery numbers.... FML u throw some proof at sony fanboys and they get buthurt AF, It's a simple fact, math dusnt lie... So you must have been brought up withought math or u must be really and i mean REALLY stupid not to count the numbers. Now if u can somehow proove the numbers wrong be my guest but thats like finding the higgs particle (do you even kno LMAO) so u guys can keep fooling yourselfs but :/ the people who know how to do simple math (grade 8 math) you'll know whats goin on.
The PS4 has FAR less potential for a price drop than the PS2 did, due to the rapidly slowing rate, and hugely increasing size reduction expense, of semiconductor tech. It will very likely never drop below $299.99, and that won't be until a 14nm APU can be manufactured cheaper than the 28nm version -- sometime past 2017, according to both TSMC and GF, where the chips are made. ...however, the PS4, for the very same reason, is bound to have a very enduring lifespan -- at least as long as the PS2, if not longer.
Previous article states PS4 is on track to pass PS2.. Check New article states it isn't on track.. Check. Source is a site no one has ever heard of really.. Check Web Design is minimal and adds to the theory above.. Check The fanboys are strong within this post.
The war has changed... But yeah, market and public are different now, PS4 wont reach PS2 numbers, but hopefully it sells solid 100m+.
Whoever wrote that article completely overlooked the fact that the PS4 is dominating the market right now without even having a single price cut. In fact, its actually more expensive than the Xbox One right now and its still kicking ass. There's a bright future ahead of PS4 and outselling the PS2 is very much possible!!
Actually it just got one a couple days ago...dropped to $240 I think. Not sure if it was officially from sony.
I'm pretty sure it will. PS4 sales don't seem o slow down and this hobby only gets bigger and bigger. That and when Sony studios start pumping out games like crazy like they did with PS3. They just need to improve PSN and not get lazy and complacent. Look at what made the PS2 so good and dominate that gen, and I'm sure it will surpass it in no time.
Hopefully the exclusives are more like bloodborne and less like the order. A lack of exclusives will eventually catch up to Sony.
lack?? thats a stupid comment. because it doesnt lack exclusives,infact it has more than MS so lets not be stupid and being up that silly arguement.
If having the most 1st party and 3rd party exclusives and the most indie games is a 'lack' of games then the Xbone must be barren then.
Make a list. Sony has said they are light on first party games for 2015. http://www.gamespot.com/art... How is it so many people know better than Sony on this topic? Sony has more indie support.
@Death Sony 2015 1st party The Order 1886 MLB 15 Bloodborne Tearaway God Of War 3 Uncharted Collection Until Dawn MS 1st party Gears of war HD Halo 5 Forza 6 Fable Legends Rare replay Scream ride 3rd party exclusives PS4 by a landslide.
sigh....from Merriam Webster: exclusive - a) limiting or limited to possession, control, or use by a single individual or group b) an exclusive right (as to sell a particular product in a certain area) known synonyms - sole, single, unshared Doesn't matter if a gamer doesn't want to, can't afford to, or doesn't have the time to; whatever the reason it doesn't make PC (and 7th gen) ports irrelevant to the "exclusive" discussion. We can't stretch the definition of words to fit the context of our arguments. Phrases like "console and/or brand exclusive" are simply oxymorons, nothing more. Truth is these are the only retail XB1 exclusives: Forza 5, Sunset Overdrive, Kinect Sports Rivals, Fantasia, and Dance Central Spotlight. PS4 has 6; The Order 1886, Killzone SF, Knack, Infamous SS, Bloodborne, and Driveclub. Every other title is available via PC or is cross-platform with gen 7. I have zero issue giving any of these publishers my hard earned money for a quality product. But if it ain't on just one gaming device, then it ain't exclusive.
@Chevalier, Bloodborne and The Order are third party exclusives. Sony severed ties with Ready at Dawn due to disappointing sales of The Order. @CBaoth, Forza Horizon 2 on the 360 and Xbox One are different games. You are also omitting Gears, Halo 5, and Forza 6 from your list. It's a little odd you want to punish Microsoft for supporting Microsoft Windows and PC, but I get it. It's a much better argument for you when you don't count games that Microsoft releases for both of their platforms.
Death You can't be this fucking dense can you? I omitted Gears 4 because it doesn't drop until 2016. Gears Ultimate is on PC as well as the 1st Gears. I don't champion timed exclusivity. Should we now start counting remade cutscenes or content you didn't get to play because it was only on the PC as exclusives? Halo5 and Forza6 aren't out YET, ergo they're not included. Once they release we absolutely will count them. " It's a little odd you want to punish Microsoft for supporting Microsoft Windows and PC, but I get it. It's a much better argument for you when you don't count games that Microsoft releases for both of their platform" You don't get it and I guess you never will. They're not EXCLUSIVE. Hence the reason I didn't include GOW3 remastered, tLoU, MLB 15, and LBP3 either on the PS4! That's why I didn't include PC cross gen titles like Tropico5, Bound by Flame, Ethan Carter, or any upcoming game like SOMA. Sad part is I even included a little caveat for the morons who play their bias card - "I have zero issue giving any of these publishers my hard earned money for a quality product". Let me reiterate, I own a 360, 2 windows gaming rigs, and an xbox one. Plus a PS3/4, Vita, WiiU, and 3DS; I go where the games go and I refuse to disrespect ANY platform because it doesn't fit the parameters of your argument. I'm not the one choosing to ignore over 500 years of a word's etymology for a petty pissing contest.