ThisGenGaming looks in to whether realistically could the Xbox One possibly take over the PS4 in sales.
Define beat? it has beaten it in NPD in some months but in overall sales its far off. @ below no prob :)
Thanks for that. I've edited it to "lifetime sales"
A couple NPD victories for the xbone is like a very small slice of the pie when we're talking overall monthly worldwide sales here... The Xbone has improved and all, but let's face it. The PS4 HAS and will continue to dominate this Gen, unless MS decides to buy every up and coming big AAA multi-platform game(example: GTA6, FF15, Fallout 4, MGS6, etc..) as a 1 year timed exclusive or something in those lines in order to have a better chance on catching up and/ or even leading... But that's unlikely cause MS would be losing sh1tloads of money.
I'm pretty confident the Xbox One could beat the PS4 in North America and possibly the UK. Worldwide there is no sales history that would support the Xbox One outperforming PS4 on a global scale. Backwards compatibility may keep some 360 owners from switching, but it does nothing for territories that didn't buy a 360 in the past. At best Microsoft will gain some ground on the PC side of business where the Xbox 360 underperformed. Many of these regions already own a PC, but chose the PS3/PS4 when it came time to decide which console to buy.
Lower the price to $250 like the Wii. That's the only way the Wii beat the PS3. To the point, no. It won't happen because Xbox isn't as popular as Playstation outside the US. Consider this. Sony has sold roughly 364 consoles across 4 generations. Nintendo and MS combined have sold around 396 and we all know how long N has been at it. It would take Sony coming out in support of genocide or something crazy to stop them from owning console sales. Even with a massive price drop, the X1 hasn't stopped the Ps4. Even with no AAA exclusives heading into last year and this year, MS has yet to gain any ground. Even with basically giving away free games, they're still lagging behind. The only console that will derail the PS4 is the PS5....
The xbox one will never catch the ps4 overall sales and it will never even come close to it. Even if microsoft decides to sell the xbox one next week for 100quid, sony will do something to combat that. All Microsoft is trying to do now is appear competitive.
@Cindy, Sony would lose a price war since they have less capital to spend. This is why Gara made statements in the UK back in may. He believes no one wins when there is a price war. Personally I believe the consumer wins, but that's just my opinion. Sony is very content leaving the PS4 at it's launch price since demand allows it to stay high. Microsoft has been forced to add more value/features while lowering the MSRP which has been great for their customers.
Worldwide lifetime sales….No. UK lifetime sales…Probably not. North American lifetime sales…Possible, but unlikely The problem for the Xbox One is that the PS4 is now cementing itself as the default 8th gen console(both among 3rd party devs/pubs & the gaming public). Once the cement drys…well lets say it'll be like trying to rip up your driveway with a plastic spoon
I like how the tone has changed among the community. Before many said it was too early to tell. I've said this since E3 2013, the X1 has no chance.
Could The Xbox One Ever Beat The PS4 In Lifetime Sales? Anything is possible, but in this case, it's highly unlikely.
It is possible for MS to beat Sony in lifetime sales. One scenario is: * MS continues to innovate at the current pace and introduce more high quality AAA games (it is crazy how many has been revealed so far for the near future) * Sony continues to deliver far away (no AAA this year which is worse than last) or false promises (like DriveClub for PS+ member). * Sony has more missteps Eventually people get sick of it and they swap consoles. This also depends on how long the generation is. One of the reason why Sony finally matched MS is due to the long generation. So it is unlikely for MS to beat Sony's lifetime sales, but it is possible. I think a potential scenario is if MS keeps going like this they might be able to match or outsell Sony in the North America and maybe UK.
Army of Darkness's response is spot on. And lets also add the fact that PS4 is the developers favourite console. Every developer will always show games running on the PS4 when they come to demo their work unless Microsoft has advertising. No developer will ever voluntarily show a multiplatform game on the xbone. They demo on the best. This goes a long way to showing that PS4 is the superior console. Who know's better than the developers? And death. Yes the PS4 is more powerful. We don't need digital foundry to prove that. Nearly every game is better on PS4.
@donthate Problem is, that scenario is completely unrealistic. Yes Microsoft can continue to improve their services, but Sony won't just drop off the radar and stop delivering games. We'll see decent competition for the rest of this gen, but we all know how it ends.
The answer is yes, it could. The question is, how probable is it that it would happen? Think the question either way is rather moot. Both are selling well enough to have continued support, and so long as software keeps selling on it, the games will continue to get made for those that have the system.
It would take a whole lot of secret sauce to catch up to PS4. I just hope MS focus on the gamers with X1 right now keeps going and I'll be a happy camper. In the end though, I don't think anyone that plays a game on PS4 "wins" over me because I played that same game on X1, that's a stupid comparison because all games perform very similarly on both consoles. MS will really have to knock it out of the park next generation, because on the very outside chance they actually do catch up in sales in a few years, it will be irrelevant because we will be talking about the next console releases...
Not even if Microsoft gave them away. People know what the superior console is.
Right, because sales determine what console is superior. Just like last generation, people knew the Wii was the superior console. EDIT @ Loktai - this is a sales article. Therefore, his comment about PS4 being superior is based only on sales, and history has proven him wrong. Your statement that PS4 is superior in power and superior in the opinion of a great number of people is completely irrelevant to the topic at hand. "The Wii sold because it was cheap partly, and it was cheap out of the gate next to multiple more expensive options." You're the one who sound like they are making desperate excuses.
The superior console is the one that plays the most games a person wants to play. Having both a PS4 and Xbox One side by side, I spend most of my time playing the Xbox One. It's where more of the games I want to play are and it's also where most of my friends are. Specs for me are irrelevant. For my youngest the superior console is a WiiU and old school DS. Once again, specs play a very small part in the decision she made. Most gamers play games, some play specs and some even play sales. Which gamer are you?
Well if they were giving them away they wouldn't be sales...
@Death Who said anything about Specs? Worldwide people are buying the PS4 twice as much as Xbox and more than both XBox and Wii U combined... they arent doing it blindly based on specs they're doing it based on games and the perceived value. If you're willing to say that then please look at the reality. The Wii sold because it was cheap partly, and it was cheap out of the gate next to multiple more expensive options. It has some great games as well of course. Nobody said anything about specs when they said superior. So tell me if its superior in sales, superior in power, superior in the opinion of a great number of people and so on why even argue with the statement that its superior? Dont pull this post modernist "Xbox is superior TO ME" just let the fact exist that you're not on the popular side and dont say anything. Nothing anyone said here is going to affect how much you enjoy your machines and arguing with someone calling it superior who has multiple reasons to say so isnt just desperate sounding it sounds like you're making excuses for a machine.
"The superior console is the one that plays the most games a person wants to play." No. That is just an opinion and its relevance as a statement begins and ends with you. It also has nothing to do with the subject at hand which is sales domination. For the X1 to beat the PS4, at some point it has to start closong the gap. It isn't. AMS has thrown the kitchen sink at Sony and nothing is stopping the PS4. Time to break out the X1 chalkboard. Every hour of every day that passes the gap widens. People say the X1 is gaining. Really? Ha ha, ridiculous. If I am driving 100 mph and you are driving 30 mph and you increase to 50 mph, are you gaining? No, just no.
Please define "superior" then. Like I said, I own both consoles along with a WiiU. I'm "winning" no matter how you want to define it. Having both the PS4 and Xbox One side by side I don't see anything superior about the PS4 other than it's specs on paper or breakdowns on DF. I can't see a couple frames per second difference when playing a game. What I can see are the features and benefits each console has along with the games available in their libraries. If you are a player of specs and sales, the PS4 is the right console for you. If you are more interested in playing games you have choices. To say the PS4 is superior is 100% opinion based. I can take away the WiiU from my kid, sit her in front of my PS4 and tell her all day long it's the superior console. The only thing that will do is make her cry.
Defining PS4's superiority: 1. Sales: are almost doubled the xbone 2. Power: System capabilities and graphical fidelity of the PS4 so far clearly shows that the xbone is the weaker console. 3. Variety: Various genres for all too enjoy and not just generic shooters ;-) 4. Quality: Well built console with quality games(superior multiplats) to match. No opinion's here, just fact.
1. Sales: are almost doubled the xbone -PS4 is winning as far as sales go. I don't see anyone deny this. The only reason it comes up is because some PS4 owners justify their purchase by sales results. "It's better because it sells more." Last gen the Wii was the superior console because it outsold the PS3 and Xbox 360. Same rules and logic apply, right? 2. Power: System capabilities and graphical fidelity of the PS4 so far clearly shows that the xbone is the weaker console. -Please give us examples that back up your statement. All we have is Digital Foundry analysis which are needed to prove the PS4's superiority. Typically when you need professionals to validate something it isn't "clearly". I don't think anyone other than MisterX is debating PS4's specs on paper as being better. The only thing we can clearly see is the PS4 has been easier to program for. The only game I can think of that takes advantage of the spec advantage is GTA which had some higher quality foliage. You have to look for it, but it's there. The rest of the debates are higher native resolution and a couple fps. How much of this is being addressed by DX12 won't be known for awhile. 3. Variety: Various genres for all too enjoy ;-) -This describes both consoles. (all three actually) 4. Quality: Well built console with quality games to match. -This describes both consoles. (Once again, the WiiU is also well built and has some great games too)
Army of Darkness's response is spot on. And lets also add the fact that PS4 is the developers favourite console. Every developer will always show games running on the PS4 when they come to demo their work unless Microsoft has advertising. No developer will ever voluntarily show a multiplatform game on the xbone. They demo on the best. This goes a long way to showing that PS4 is the superior console. Who know's better than the developers themselves? And death. Yes the PS4 is more powerful. We don't need digital foundry to prove that. Nearly every game is better on PS4.
@death 1. Sales... last gen, I agree. wii was dominate when it came to sales. This gen however is the ps4 in which by your statement and logic, you agree with. so we have a clear agreement ;-) 2. Power: Digital foundry was taken into consideration last gen when the 360 had the better muliplatform games, so why is that invalid now?? All multiplatform games Look better(1080p native) and typically perform better(fps, details) on the ps4 and if you can't see that by now with your own eyes then you are just in complete denial. Doesn't take an expert too see that bro. 3. Variety: This does somewhat describe all 3 consoles, however there is no denying that the ps4 has the MOST available out of the three. 4. Quality: wiiu is well-built I suppose with a few good games here and there, but not nearly as well built as the ps4, otherwise it would be leading in every aspect by now and not dragging behind the xbone even after a huge head start.
I don't have to define it. It is a non-starter. It isn't part of the discussion unless you are talking superior sales. And if you can't see how the PS4 has performed in a superior fashion as regards the market - a topic that is directly related to the thread at hand - then you are kidding yourself. As regards other parts of the market and being superior, I really wish listwars was still around.
is it logical to suggest the wii was the superior console last generation? i don't think most people would agree with that. sales do not determine what is superior. is it hardware power? then that would mean the xbox beat the ps2, does that make the xbox superior to that of the ps2? again many would disagree. so how do we define superiority again? does price come into the debate? there is no magic formula, it all boils down to personal preference. as for the xbox one to beat the ps4 something drastic would have to happen. the xbox one would have to be even lower in price and get better software support than the ps4. history has shown that sony's console are never the underdog when it comes to software support. that would mean microsoft would have to somehow beat them with games, i don't see it happening. the ps4 has achieved the upper hand in third party preference and their fist party studios still outnumber microsoft's. so it comes down to price and features. the ps4 can match the xbox one already with features. all that's left is price and i don't see microsoft dropping too much just to try and outsell the ps4. when you put things into context the xbox one isn't selling that poorly, it's just that the ps4 is selling very well. it's all context and it is nintendo who should be the main focus but we've seen this episode before, the xbox versus the playstation is all some seem to care about and to make matters worse is we see die hard fans who think you can only choose one or the other and stay there while trying their best to keep downplaying the other.
The fact is, this is the first time since the SNES that one of the consoles had the lead in all three categories: Games, hardware specs, and sales. The Wii led in sales, but not hardware or games. The PS2 led in sales and games, but not hardware. The PS1 led in sales and games, but not necessarily hardware (this one is actually a little debatable, but really the only reason the N64 might have been "weaker" than the PS1 is that it was limited in capacity from the cartridges, so some of the bigger games like Final Fantasy couldn't be made on that system, but in terms of graphics, it was more capable of powerful 3D graphics processing than the PS1). As for PS4 and this gen... The power and sales aren't nearly as debatable as the games debate. But objectively, the PS4 really has the games debate won as well... X1: 224 Games, 94 Rated 75+, 53 Rated 80+, 24 Rated 85+, 3 Rated 90+ PS4: 308 Games, 147 Rated 75+, 89 Rated 80+, 34 Rated 85+, 9 Rated 90+ PS4 has 38% more games total, and 48% of those games are rated "positive" (75+) on Metacritic, while 42% are rated positive on Xbox One. PS4 also has the advantage in every one of those categories I mentioned above. A higher percentage of its games are rated 80+, 85+, and 90+. The quantitative truth according to Metacritic is not only that the PS4 has more games, but a higher percentage of those games are good games.
@Death A superior console would be one that is dependable, offers more and also offers better of the same features as the competitors. Also how you treat your customers and what kind of reliable product you put out also has a persuasion on which consoles i buy. I'm not a follower, i don't buy consoles that my friends own just cause thats what they use. I was personally responsible for making quite a few of my friends switch from 360 to ps3 and they wouldn't touch a MS product from here on out.
Give it away for free they might have a chance other than that It's impossible. Sony have learned from their mistakes last gen and got it right in every single area this gen.
Anything is possible, it's highly unlikely, but is possible.
ps4 is still ahead in NPD numbers
The real question is, who cares? Hardcore gamers will have both consoles. Even last gen the difference was not noticeable. Both are great consoles. Who cares which one sells a tad bit more. Lots of those sales are guys who have one and buy the other. Pick the console your friends have and has the games you want. All good games will be on both with a few exceptions. The better question is when can we finally play ps vs xbox in the same game? I think restricting gamers to only play with guys on similar consoles is retarded.
360 couldnt even do it when it had that tremendous headstart. its silly to even entertain that notion of xbone catching up to ps4 in lifetime sales.
In a word No, because they don't sell well enough worldwide to make that big an impact on generational sales. It's what happens when you only sell well in only two regions instead of many.
Most likely that won't happen. However it is possible if MS were to offer games or features that weren't found elsewhere that it could close the gap. The 360 started off with a significant lead to start last gen, but the PS3 closed that gap by continually offering quality content to eventually overtake it in worldwide sales. Never say never I guess.
The PS3 was selling more worldwide than the 360 from its first year though and only beat the PS3 one year. X1 has never come close on a WW basis.
And the year it did was a miniscule amount. There is no history of Xbox outselling PlayStation. Just once where it launched 12/16 months earlier and PlayStation was overpriced.
I love when people try to brag about how well the PS3 did in comparison to the X360. Sony entered last-gen in a absolutely dominate market position. So much of one in fact that MS thought a distant second was the best the X360 would do in their wildest dreams. (compared to Sony as Sony and MS don't compete against Nintendo in the same way) But in the end MS stole 50% of Sonys market share, and finished last gen basically tied. This was a huge upset for a console with little brand loyalty, and not rolling into its 3rd console. MS absolutely dominated last gen and Don Mattrick made some huge missteps this gen that has cost them (at least for now) the U.S. and UK. They can and may turn it around in those regions with Phil at the helm but Europe is a lost cause. MS needs to still work hard to earn every gamer it can, but it belongs to Sony.
The only "50%" that MS stole was from the 50% of people who had to re-buy a 360 because of RROD.
@ThePope MS Stole 50% of Sony's Market share? Excuse me...just had to see if you were joking, wait you are not joking? OK there once again, Microsoft did not steal 50% of Sony's market share in the game console Market, if any thing while Microsoft did Infact grow the Market share %/and clearly Some Mind share in Mainly in North American and UK areas, the blunt truth of the matter is Microsoft Lost Market share. Yes you heard me right they lost over all market share and both Sony and Nintendo gained More on Microsoft's Market share and Infact Split the % /between them. How do you know what I am saying is the truth and your statement is no where near true. Because you just cannot. Claim 1 system vs 1/system as the only gauge of market share, if you are excluding the other companies other game console's other systems in the market, in order to inflate your [email protected] market share! Its funny, out of the auto industry you do not see Tesla motors making the claim it stole a large chunk of Chevy or fords Market share do you.... Just because they may have a model that may sell more than one of Ford or Chevy Models. I get it, Microsoft did very well with the xbox360,/no argument there my sister owns 2/xbox360's I play on them every now and then. It was a fantastic system. But in blunt truth, you could only point out the 1 system vs 1/system because that's all Microsoft had last generation. Ironic thing is now Xbox360/and Xbox one are both now grouped in for Market share by Microsoft's view , how come you and others are still only look at that way, While this idea its still one vs one system from each company While. Both Microsoft and Sony both look @ it as by the total number of systems they produce in the market, and number of models and the world wide sale of those units is your market share world wide..not just in a certain area of the globe. The video game console market is a world wide market!
@pope. I don't understand people like you. So you say Sony lost market share from the PS2 to the PS3 but here is the thing. You can't carry over your market share in the console industry once you start a new gen. At the start of a new gen everyone starts from zero consoles hence its a clean slate. Did Nin carry over their Wii market share to this gen?. How were they suppose to transfer over their market share from last gen to next gen?. Converting all existing WII to wii-u?. Even at the end of this gen Sony will not take their PS4 numbers as part of their 9th gen marketshare because it is a 8th gen console. Its a reset once next gen comes around.
To all those above, you guys have no idea what you're talking, so much so I don't even know where to begin. Market share doesn't carry over to a new gen, but when a company predicts how it will do in with a new device it looks at its current market share and extrapolates from there. Sony and MS both predicted huge sales for the PS3 and good sales for the X360. instead both had great sales, but Sony lost market share last gen based on how many people were moving from the PS2, a HUGE amount of it. When you compare devices you compare its direct competition, Sony and MS advertise to the exact same demographic, while the Wii doesn't. People who owned a PS2/Xbox and bought a Wii didn't make it their primary console as it doesn't have anywhere near the same kind of games (ok maybe 3-4 but that's it). So did Sony and MS lose market share to the Wii, yes, but my guess would be in the single digits percentage wise. Tesla didn't steal market share from Ford or GM as they don't compete in the same market or advertise to the same demographic. Just like Sony/MS don't compete with the Wii.
What? Um NO....That is exactly what they have been doing are are still massively behind... Their "vision" the one that required Kinect, yeah um that didn't work so they removed it and it didn't help...They dropped it down to $350 gave away like 5 games, and it didn't really help. Then after the holidays they went back to the normal price and people complained so they dropped it back to the $350 permanently and it still isn't helping them get any closer to a console that is $50 bucks more.... When your closest competitor doesn't even have to consider a price drop because 25-30mil > 12-13mil, yeah your getting trounced. At this rate they would have to drop it to Wii prices practically
lol.. but I bet the Vita is a great handheld right?
@Neonridr Yeah the Vita and 2DS are excellent handhelds. I enjoy the hardware that each offers. As for Software they both have good games but the 2DS has many more.
Sony released allot of great exclusives for PS3 and clawed there way back up. Not saying its impossible but the likely hood is very small. MS just needs to continue to pump out AAA games and continue to update its XBL services with compelling features.
It's not the same situation Sony had to play catch up because they launched a year later.
@Letthewookiewin - yes but the PS3 also released with shoddy ports when compared to the 360 due to the developers inexperience using the Cell processor. So yes the 360 launched a year ahead, but it's not like the 360 sold 30 million or anything in its first year. The PS3 got better over time due to some great exclusives and better 3rd party releases. Remember Skyrim on the PS3? Yeah...
@Neonridr It was at least 8-12 million ahead by the time the ps3 launched. It's hard to pick an exact number because it launched a year later in the first regions and up to 2 years later in others. But once the PS3 launched the gap continued to shrink. I think there may have been one year in there where the 360 sold more than the ps3, but it wasn't by much if I recall.
The problem with N4G that I have to say again and again is they think NA = the world. PS3 was selling WW.
That's not a problem with N4G, it's a problem with Americans on the whole. It doesn't matter what site you go on, it seems most of the people from america who comment say the exact same thing. They constantly view the sales figures in america as the be all and end all of determining who won and how well a system did. Mind you, I am in no way saying that all americans do that.
American here, and I know better that sales for a generation are WW. It's what matters most not just one or two regions. I always look at the whole picture when it comes to the numbers.
I'm American too and it's something that annoys me a great deal.
Sony would have to mess up really bad for MS to catch up in Sales.
Nope. Simple like this.
Not worldwide without the EU and Japan.
If they are going to close the gap, the next 6 months will be the test. Halo, Forza & Tomb Raider are coming to Xbox One, but not to PS4 during that period. Those are AAA, possible system-selling titles, the kind that Sony lacks during the same timeframe. Everything is in place for MS. If Xbox One hasn't significantly closed the gap come February, there will be little chance of them overtaking (or even catching) Sony this generation. Funny that this topic comes up right now. I'm currently watching a replay of the 1992 AFC Wild Card game on NFL network, the game in which Buffalo trailed 35-3 but came back to win.
When has Forza ever been a system seller?
I said possible system-seller. Forza 6 is looking to be pretty amazing, and it will come out in September, a month before the real heavy hitters start arriving. If Forza 6 gets great reviews, and some positive word of mouth, it could help MS during a month in which it could be the biggest title by far. Forza 5 came out in November, and IIRC Forza's 3 & 4 were October releases. Maybe releasing a month earlier than normal will help - it couldn't hurt.
I am not downplaying Forza or anything let alone saying that they are bad games but the franchise is totally being overblown by the xbox community as something that can help the xbox sales to reach new heights. Not even 10% of xbox owners are buying it in reality. I believe Driveclub outsold both Forza 5 and Horizon 2 and it's a game that got massive hate from reviewers. So yeah, Forza is not gonna do jack in terms of helping the xbone outselling the PS4...EVER! Like it or not, Gran Turismo 5 has sold more copies than the last 4 or 5 Forza games combined or maybe even the whole franchise altogether! Not saying either one is the better game than the other but just a perspective on how little impact Forza has in terms of selling power.
The Forza series has sold over 20 million games.. it's not a franchise to simply overlook.
The thing is Sony don't really need to release any AAA first party this holiday, we are arguably going into one of the best holidays for third party releases in a long time. Chances are Halo 5 and Tomb raider are going to get less attention with fallout 4 and battlefront releasing in the same window. The uncharted collection is a pretty big deal which is releasing in October also alongside Tales of zestiria and Dragon quest heroes. With marketing rights for COD BO3 and Battlefront as well, I think there's a bit too much of vibe going around that X1 will crush ps4 this holiday, where as the reality will be quite different. Both will sell well.
@Neonridr: The lifetime sales argument is invalid. Especially when talking about a series that's had over five full and side entries. @Ravenheartzero: The uncharted collection is as much a non-system seller issue as Forza. People who buy it will likely be fans of the series, or former 360 owners who didn't bother with PS3.
7 Forzas at 20 million total sales is ~3 million apiece. Not exactly system sellers.
Forza won't move consoles, I and a majority of gamers don't play racing games, Tomb Raider is going to get clobbered by Fallout 4 and COD. People underestimate the impact Fallout 4 is going to have on EVERY game released Oct-Nov, I almost guarantee most publishers said "crap there goes our sales" when it was announced, Halo 5 isn't going to be the savior people think it is. I just hear all this talk about heavy hitter exclusives and honestly I don't see it. Sony would have to insult people's mothers and hike the price of PS4 before MS could catch up. And whatever ground is gained by MS (they will beat Sony Nov-Dec) it's going to be completely lost in 2016 with Uncharted around March.
but every big game releasing this fall is also releasing on the Xbox One. You laugh or mock Forza, Tomb Raider and Halo but these are all games the PS4 won't see. Fallout 4, Call of Duty, Battlefront, MGS V, etc.. are all releasing on the One. Halo 5 will move millions of units easily.