Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has said that he hopes to sell between 50m and 100m Oculus Rift virtual reality headsets over the next ten years.
Ouch! Good luck, that won't happen in one day. If 50 Million ~100M is what you need in order get devs interested in making games for it, then I've got some bad news... Do they think they can sell as much as the Wii? They'd be lucky to sell as much as the kinect with all the adds surrounding it (500M$ TV/internet Promo Campaign)
It depends on how much support it will get . If it gets a major support from the devs then it will sell above 50 million .
Facebook has 800 million accounts, the marketing on their network will take care of itself. But Mark isn't using it. I don't know why he isn't. Seriously. If I was him, I'd use facebook to get the word out.
I'd say 10 mil to be meaningful. If you look at Gamecube, Dreamcast, and Xbox they had some lasting appeal. Only aside from the Dreamcast it was a fail and Sega couldn't do anything afterwards. If you get to 20 mil there's gonna be a crowd that will stick to this technology. 100 mil isn't just meaningful.. That's crtical mass like ipad, ps2, DS, ps1, ipod, and gameboy. To get something to 100 mil, your standards too high then. Zuckerberg should know better than that.
just add porn and it will sell like crazy
It's funny because it's true. That's how DVD's became mainstream.
LMAO, I can see it now. https://www.youtube.com/wat...
Porn worn vhs the video cassette war just like all other formats too, vr will be no different,the tech is right for the consumer market but I think the early products or and pm won't truly take off until 5 yrs or so
Exactly, it's a very niche device that only interests a small percentage of the population. Ask someone who doesn't play many video games or keep up with video game news what they think of the Oculus Rift and you will get a blank stare. It is an interesting device, but for the price point it's likely to go the way of physics cards (remember those?) rather than become ubiquitous.
It's a niche device because it's not even out yet... Ask a person in 2005 what they thought of a Blu-ray player and they'd give you the same blank stare.
I agree, unless they have something completely revolutionary planned this isn't going to happen. The hardware you need to too much to reach a gaming community that large. The projected price is too much to reach mass market appeal. The content is currently lacking right now, unless it can be easily patched into games, video, or 3D images. There's just too much going against it. I could see 5 - 10 million, but 10x that is a dream.
I honestly think Oculus will sell about 1-2 million to the public.....AT BEST. * It will sell about 10+ Million to the corporate world though. You better believe those deals are already in place.
I fully admit I have no idea what the future holds but I can't see this catching on for mass market the way it is. As neat as the idea of VR is, I can't see the mass populace strapping that big thing to there faces just for a bit more immersion. I mean 3D basically failed on TV's simply because most people didn't want to wear the glasses which in most cases weigh less than a tenth of what an oculus weighs. I feel like its one of those things that sounds really cool when you haven't tried it but in reality its more trouble than the gains provide. Also there have been less complex versions of these devices for years but they never became popular. http://www.theverge.com/201... This is just a modern one, I remember way back in the SNES days there were devices like this because I wanted to get one. I tried to find it on goggle but failed though. But I did find this hilariously appropriate video in the process https://www.youtube.com/wat...
Yeah they would almost have to give them away to hit those numbers with any quickness.
xaxa keep dreaming Zuckerberg ..if the facebook-surveilance-machine occulus rift sells that much (and other companies will follow too--with surveillance VR machines) ..i quit gaming generally
It was meaningful to the gaming community long before Facebook even looked its way. VR is interesting.
Ahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahaha hahahahahahaha It needs to sell like PS2 or Wii! It will sell <5mm
It will sell 5 millimetre?
I can see that. But if it sold that much the media industry would shift as we know it.
Throw TONS of money at it. Get setups in Best Buy, Walmart, and GameStop with informed representatives. Create a massive social network campaign. Get reactions from fans. Get it trending. Schedule media events with every major source. This thing could take off like the Wii, if they play their cards right.
50-100 million? he really thinks he can sell anywhere near that number? i assume it will be far far cheaper than i'm expecting then.
It needs to 200 bucks or less to get the big sales number Zuckerberg wants. I personally don't understand how he thinks it would ever reach 100 million at any kind of rapid attach rate.. even lifetime sales after 5 years, it will be under 100 million. I hope Oculus sells well, but under 50 million more like 25 millionñ is a more reasonable goal to shoot for. Now if he's meaning it will need to sell 50-100 mil to become Mainstream enough to change the industry, then yes, I agree, but it will NOT sell 100 million. Ever, unless it is 100 bucks and works with EVERYTHING, 100 mil is a psychotic pipe dream.
50-100m is pretty good for Xbox one or even ps4 sales... lifetime.... oculus 100m is "meaningful" lmao, try runaway success at those figures. Hey dude, fb was created during a social revolution on the internet off the back of MySpace and it exploded big time..... your success won't always be so huge.... 20-50m for oculus I'd say is pretty big figures imo.
20mil sounds reasonable in a sense. even the kinect sold more than that. whats more difficult though is trying to sell a vr headset. are we ready for something so stupid looking yet?
.. Globally, over a 5-10 year span? If they corner the VR headset market? They can achieve that. But a lot of it will be corporate, non-consumer, non gaming entertainment, education, tourism, design.. I'm most interested in it as a gaming thing, but if they play their cards right it could end up getting used for so much stuff. Prisons, hospitals, museums, IKEA (lol) etc.
Yeah.... no. If that's what they're expecting out of Oculus, it's most likely gonna be a failure. This is why many were against a company like Facebook getting involved: unrealistic expectations. Sounds as if they're likely to drop the thing if it doesn't outsell most consoles... and that's just not likely to happen.
I for one will be waiting at least year or two for a price drop or to see if it's a failure before getting a Rift.If there is one thing I have learned in the last year is it pay's to wait when buying new tech these day's.
I dont think it will sell THAT welll
Zuckerman's analysis is terrible. There's no reason it needs to sell that much. That would mean all these new systems aren't appealing either :/
50 -100m has too big of a range. its like comparing a snes to a playstation in terms of sales. couldnt they have just said 50+? thats asking for a lot aswell, i doubt that there are even 50m pc gamers with a good enough setup that could run vr games and are even interested in buying a vr headset.
Not really showing much hope in the product you bought, Zuck...
Not a lot of people are. I remember how many devs up and quit when the buyout happened and this tool said he had very little intention to have it focus on games...it's primary focus.
If you guys actually think they are only gonna focus on games then you are dead wrong. There is already a few small movies done and are in development using the tech in THIS stage...Imagine TEN years from now?? Theaters, home theaters, games, apps, simulators for training, etc...Thinking that VR tech is only staying at this stage of advancement and never progressing from here is stupid and short-sighted. This tech is not that old.
Heal got the money now.... I guess he started doing blow. Lifetime sales yeah since they're trying to take to what you see in movies but that not going to happen over night not even 5 yrs
I still can't help but feel VR is going to be the next 3D.
In tens of thousands of theaters worldwide? http://www.statista.com/sta...
VR is much, much, MUCH more immersive than 3D. Until you've experienced it firsthand, you'll have no idea what you're talking about. Do you really think that we're still going to be playing games on 2D screens 10+ years from now?
I dont know what the future is going to bring and I have never tried it, if it is as great as its supposed to be I hope it catches on but I do not think it will. I dont think that we'll still be watching 2D screens but I also dont think people will be watching tv with the screen strapped to your head. Not trying to be stubborn or close minded, just my opinion.
Regardless of what the technology of 10 years from now we'll be wearing, the Rift is like the first real commercial VR system. Having to strap on some goofy ski goggles is a pretty small barrier to entry for a lot of people that are eager to take their gaming experience to the next level.
to make back the 2 billion they spent on it is what he really means.
Reminds me of this scene from Hackers! It's like it predicted the Razer Hydra Motion Controller, Oculus Rift and the Omni! LOL https://www.youtube.com/wat...
100 million ha ha ha no way!
Maybe they should fund a game, or create their own studio...
Facebook will never be really meaningful, no matter how much users it will have in the end. Of course dumb people see in Facebook the holy grail of human inventions ...
Rift and Morpheus are DOA. And this is good, because it will save many eyes from long term damage.
Seriously? That is like expecting 50-100 million sales in high end PCs that can run VR decently if not well. That is highly improbably. Otherwise it will be motion sickness galore with 30 FPS. Are they expecting VR to run on a smart phone or something? If so, let me laugh even harder.
Since it's in Fuckerberg's hands, I hope it flops.
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