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John Carmack Would be 'shocked' if VR Isn't 'wildly popular' in 5 Years

VRFocus - Oculus VR is confident that its on the right path with its Oculus Rift virtual reality (VR) head-mounted display. And why shouldn't it be? Facebook bought the company for $2 billion USD, it's more than doubled in size since and yet it remains patient with the development of the consumer version of the device. But speaking at this weekend's Oculus Connect developer conference in Hollywood, California, the company's Chief Technology Officer John Carmack revealed he was so confident in its work that he would be 'shocked' if VR wasn't a mainstream concept in five years time.

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-Foxtrot1486d ago

He hopes it's popular because he did leave id for this

mikeslemonade1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

5 years sound about right for popular but not "widely" popular. I'd expect about a 20 mil install base for that kind of medium by then.

Blank1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

Hey I partially agree with your statement but respectfully disagree at the 20 mill guesstimate, as for popularity in 5 years the biggest variations in the equation to all this is how soon will the oculus or any other VR systems be priced at a mainstream consumer level to take off?? Or what mainstream use will the vr headsets have at the ready?? When you mentioned that it can take off realistically im thinking your looking at a gamer viewpoint. But even at that point you still have detractors, im among those that personally can be an early adopter (please dont judge) but 20 mill is too much but as for carmacks surprise if it takes off like ue wants to take off I wouldnt hold my breath I see the potential but the main factor is how will all the other services like tv, internet, or anything of that sort is how will they implement it for it to take off to those levels?? Im personally just following the tech to see where it can lead but in the end im around your level of optimism for this tech.

UltimateMaster1485d ago (Edited 1485d ago )

He's paid to say this stuff, like always.
Don't forget that.

Gamer19821486d ago

A man who invested time and money in a product has faith in it? SHOCKER!

knifefight1486d ago

I'll be completely shocked if it is. >_>

(Not saying its popularity won't increase, but I think "wildly popular" is a stretch.)

poppinslops1486d ago

Seems to me that VR tech faces a similar predicament to that of the mobile-phone circa 1985-1995ish... Today they're an 'essential' part of our existence, but it took YEARS for that to happen, and the reasons are three:
• Availability - Phones became affordable
• Practicality - They fit in a pocket, became tiny PCs
• Support - From telecom agencies to corporations to governments, from 'Snake' and Solitaire to specially formatted porn-sites...

VR tech exists and is great for specific applications, but it's expensive, bulky and limited to a very particular market (As it stands their are a significant percentage of people who will be unable to use it)... As time goes by, it will begin to tick the right boxes, but mainstream in 4-5 years? It still makes people vomit!
Certain industries might get in early (virtual 'tourism', porn), but 5-10 years would be my guess.

donthate1486d ago

Yup, the fact that people get sick means they still have a long way to go. Phones are easy to adopt, because it has inherent benefits everyone understands and wants.

I remain optomistic because I want VR to succeed,b ecause I love new technology, but at the same time, it's limitation is severe. There is a long long way to go!

sungam3d1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

Yeah, I could handle a 5 to 10 minute fap session with VR porn.

Any more than that and it wont only be my penis expelling various bodily fluids.

The thing is just nauseous.

DLConspiracy1485d ago

I think its safe to say that if the porn industry embraces it like I am pretty damn sure they will. It should be a rapid success. The porn industry often is a tipping point for formats alone. The real challenge is the price point of the consumer models, which it sounds like has been a huge base point for Occulus. They want it to be as affordable as possible. Otherwise that 5 years will be more like 15 and could bury it.

Software types and devs are already backing it early on. If they keep that price right it could be a knockout.

Shad0wRunner1486d ago

Depends on how integrated VR becomes in our lives...and how fast. It has to go beyond gaming.

bumnut1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

We need to porn industry to step in, it will be a success then :)

Give it 10 years and we will all be wearing VR helmets while humping USB sex toys.

poppinslops1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

FOR THE GLORY!!!

The Porn Industry chose VHS over Betamax (which was superior, but more expensive). HD-DVDs disappeared when Porn went to Blu-ray...
Porn - for better or worse (probably worse...) - is often the deciding factor between competing platforms.

Blank1486d ago

I gotta screenshot this comment and laugh once those USB sex toys come in hahaha! Then ill see your comment and think "welp here I am doing what was said years ago as joke from that time" hahaha!

bumnut1486d ago

It would be awesome, I can picture a middle aged over weight guy using it.

In VR he would look down and be ripped like the guys from 300, have a massive cock and be banging a stunning blonde who is loving it....... all while humping a USB toy!

Might go on Dragons Den :)

Codey471486d ago

"Might go on Dragons Den :)"
But then you'd have to demo the product in front of Deb and Kel.

I recommend practicing your pelvis grind and wear big boys pants to cover up yer bumnuts!

DefenderOfDoom21486d ago

The adult industry has apps. for VR already. My guess is around 4 to 6 million sold, between all VR Headsets developers , in 5 years.

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KakashiHotake1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

It will be wildly popular give or take in 2 years. Project Morpheus is gonna be a hit among PlayStation fans and there's a lot of us. Of course VR has potential for much more than just gaming but still gaming is ultimately what's going to make it take off, and when it comes to gaming Sony is among the best in the entire industry.

TheNew11486d ago

What else can you predict, oh great time wizard?

IRetrouk1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

His comment is sound, im a playstation owner who is really looking forward to vr on my console, i also feel like gaming, and movies to an extent, will be what pushes vr forward, why not try adding to the discussion, instead of being an ass?

KakashiHotake1486d ago

I also predict in 3 years we won't even need VR. Just take a magic pill and you'll be instantly teleported inside your favorite game. One side effect to that though is the effects are permanent so you won't be able to return to reality ever.

poppinslops1486d ago

Will Martians ever teach us how to REALLY get the most out of our hoverboards?

ElementX1486d ago (Edited 1486d ago )

Sony also predicted 3D TVs would be a huge hit and I still don't know anybody who has one. Then there's the Move which never took off.

Finch1486d ago

Count me out, I don't even want reading glasses on besides a VR helmet.

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