Research firm also expects Kinect to be unbundled from Xbox One and physical game sales to decline 45% compared to last gen
I highly doubt that but i agree the ps4 will sell very well.
All depends on the games.
The headline and the actual text don't match. The title claims 'by 2016'. The text of the story states 'in 2016'. 51 million PS4s sold in 2016 seems a quite reasonable and safe prediction.
I don't think it's out of the question TBH if they mean by the end of 2016 These are using VG Numbers so, Lets look at the trend of last Gen. If the PS4 is selling as hot as the Wii, in it's three full years on the market it will definetely hit that as the Wii Hit 64 Million. This also goes without saying that the Wii sales topped 7 million 7 years ago today, something the PS4 reached just last month, meaning yes, the PS4 is selling at the same rate, if not a little faster than the Wii. We know it';s selling better than the PS3/xbox 360, which the ps3 hit about 32 Million and 360 hit 26 Million in the given 3 years (36 Million for xbox 360 vs 32 PS3 the same year though) I don't think it's out of the question, I can see it hitting 45 Million and potentially the 51. If Sony keeps up with demand, they can hit it
The majority still hasn't moved to next gen. By 2016 many appealing 1st party games should make PS4 an even easier choice than it is already. 51 million is a lot but it's definately reallistic ...don't forget that there are 2 holidays seasons in between.
@AGaryColemanClone "51 million PS4s sold in 2016 seems a quite reasonable and safe prediction." 51 million consoles sold in one year is 4.25 million sold per month. That is almost impossible. I think you mean: "PS4's lifetime sales will hit 51 million units by sometime in the year 2016."
Heh, yes creatchee. That is what I meant. Thank you.
And it all depends on Sony's financial capability to make millions of PS4's on a faster rate than what we are having now. Sony has to find a way to make PS4's quickly. The again software production needs to keep coming as fast as they can tooo. Also PS Vita memory card prices needs to drop in price quickly too. PS3 was selling around 13 million to 15 million a year before. I have no doubt the PS4 can sell 15 million to 17 million a year. 45 million by end of 2016 is a safe estimate but PS4 is full of surprises.
@AGaryColemanClone No problem! I agree with your sentiment as well. 51 million is attainable with the amount of PS4's already sold plus the next 1.5 - 2.5 years of sales.
51 million PS4 units being sold within 3 years of launch is impossible, even if there were some 'must have' games. The only way I could see something like this happening would be if Microsoft were to decide to exit the console market, leaving Sony with a virtual monopoly, since the WiiU is a complete non-factor. I don't even understand where this group is coming from with this kind of prediction. Things are really strong out of the gates for the PS4, but these are hardcore Playstation fans and hardcore ex-Xbox 360 gamers that are currently buying this console. The general public will not be spending $399.00 USD ($449.00 CDN) with the added cost of a $50.00 yearly subscription. We've already seen how well the Xbox 360 did with a subscription-based console. Just before the release of the XBOX One, the 360 had 48 million Live accounts total. The only reason the the 360 went on to sell just over 80 million consoles was because of people having to buy multiple consoles due to a really high failure rate. So if the 360 had 48 million Xbox Live accounts over an 8 year period, then how does anyone expect the PS4 to sell 51 million units in 3 years, presuming that the PS4's failure rate is super low?
@BattleAxe What? That makes no sense, why are you assuming that everyone who owned an Xbox 360 had XBL Gold? That's just stupid. And why are you assuming everyone who buys a PS4 will buy PS+? Also stupid. And you really don't think there will be any sorry if price drop whosoever within the next 3 years?
^^^ I never specifically mentioned Xbox Live Gold accounts. What I said was that the 360 is a subscription based console. The 360 had 48 million Live accounts all together(Gold and non-subscription accounts included), which is representative of how many individual people bought an Xbox 360. The fact that there is a pay wall with Live Gold, surely had an effect on people when were deciding which console to buy. I know many people who didn't buy a 360 because to get the full experience, you have to purchase a Gold membership. In terms of a price drop, I have no idea if there will be one within the next 3 years, and we have no idea what that will mean in terms of sales numbers. We also don't know what the quality of games will be in the coming years, and how bad the micro-transactions and exploitation of DLC will be. We also don't know what the economy will be like, which when you look at the PS3 and the 360, they were heavily affected by the global credit crisis in 2008/2009, and the economy still hasn't recovered fully. Some economists are predicting a stock market crash in the near future, which will hurt everyone if it actually comes to pass.
"Decline 45% physical games compared to last gen." Highly unlikely; with ISP providers limiting bandwidth caps and charging us extra for the bandwidth, especially now with next-gen gaming being around 40Gb~50Gb. I'm sorry, I'd rather give more money to the game developer than my ISP provider. I do see 40+ Million PS4 4 late 2016. 51M would be incredible, but I don't think they could produce that much PS4. I do see the math they took: 7 Million for 5 Months = 1.4Million/month 37 Months (the current 7 + 30 months to go to Nov 2016) x1.4 = 51 Million.
There is a possibility that Sony very well may sell 15 million consoles by the end of 2014. If Sony has sold 10 million consoles by the end of August, that number could possibly be reached. I personally predict 20 million sold by the end of the year. Impossible? Maybe. We'll just have to see if the PS4's lineup of games will be enough to boost sales.
Yeah, it's just a tad optimistic to say the least. At a guess the PS4 cold be around 18 - 20 million by the end of this year, so this article is suggesting it will sell another 31 million in 2015. I did note though that whilst the headline reads 'by' 2016, the actual article reads 'in' 2016. Going with that, I can see this as possible, but still optimistic even if we say mid to late 2016. 50+ million by 1017 would be my guess.
Pretty sure they didn't even have electricity in 1017. I kid It was obviously meant to be 2017
It isn't worded that great but they say it should be 51 "in" 2016(i take that to mean by 2017) even thou the title says by. Which seems like it might be doable but does seem like alot esp since by end of 2016 they say that Xbox1 will be leading in the USA.
If the PS4 proves to be the "go to" platform for popular games like Call of Duty or Minecraft this generation PS4 might do the impossible and leave M$ & Nintendo or Steam in the dust. I mean who would have thought the PS4 will sell gangbuster to the tune of 7 million in 4 months! 2014 - 17 million 2015 - 17 million 2016 - 17 million They you have it 51 million. Sony has been aggressive with PS4 pricing so who knows what bundling they will make during them holiday seasons. And by 2016 PS4 may sell for $350 OR $300 per unit.
More than half the PS3/360 sales in 2-3 years ? Maybe if they release more AAA games... Games sell consoles...
Right, and seeing as PS has yet to let its audience down, ever, in that department, is it not safe to assume that PS4 will bring heavy hitters? I say it is. They are coming and we are ready.
^^^ So what's coming in terms of exclusive Triple A games?
MLB 2014 The Show (just released) The Order: 1886 (2014) DriveClub (2014) Uncharted 4 (in development 3 years already my guess Christmas this year) To name a few on top of the ones already available.
@BattleAxe wait another 5 weeks then ask that again
"Oner + 3h ago MLB 2014 The Show (just released) The Order: 1886 (2014) DriveClub (2014) Uncharted 4 (in development 3 years already my guess Christmas this year) To name a few on top of the ones already available." I wouldn't really say that there are any triple A exclusives available right now except for Infamous: Second Sun, but is this list seriously everything?
I highly doubt that xbone will ever sale as well as PS4 in the United States or the world. Unless you are a xbox fan or xboxfanboy . Why would anyone pay the same price or more for a weaker console. The PS4 version has superior quality in multiplatform. PS4 has not just higher resolution but also higher frame-rates than xBone in multiplatform games. Xbone live every single thing is locked behind the pay wall of gold membership. You can use every feature of The PS4 with out paying a monthly fee unlike Xbone.
First of all exclusive games matter the most here, since the whole higher resolution thing isn't a major difference. It's not like the Ps4 version of games looks 50% better than the xbox one's version, so it all come down to differentially.
I bought my Xbox One for the Games, I bought my PS4 for the games, I still choose to play my multiplat games on X1 cause its my console of choice(the ps4 is great too), it is still the same core experience same as PS4 despite slight res difference... if graphics is all u care about and counting pixels go get a PC cause thats 10x the graphics of these consoles... A real gamer appreciates a game for its core experience not how it looks on each platform, I would enjoy Watchdogs equally on PS3/360 as I would on PS4 or Xbox One... Watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watc...
You doubt what? That it will be at 61 million by then or that it will lead? If it's the latter, you'd be a little late, as it is already leading. OT: Sounds like a safe prediction.
Yeah, I'm thinking 40 to 45 million by the end of 2016. But thats if it stays the course. Who knows, the demand could drop off if there isnt a steady flow of games, or Sony could release the next must have franchise for the generation and that accelerates sales. Just no way to tell yet, but I think about 40m is a given at this point.
Dang that's one heck of an estimate but with how well the PS4 is selling I think it could be possible if Sony can keep the momentum up
At this rate that they're going now I can see that. Sony hasn't even brought out the big guns out yet so I can see it happening.
Agreed, the big guns as well as superior multiplats will only help increase sales.
yes and no. the biggest guns were the console launch itself - especially when you factor in how long it has been between last gen. quick sales of the ps4 have been ridiculously high but that also means that the demographics of people that are buying ps4s will start to hit its saturation point soon. that means sales numbers will certainly slow down and then software sales start to move up in place of. we kind of see hints of this already with quarterly sales ever so slightly dipping from one to the next. - thats not to say it isn't doing well... its kicking ass and will for some time. Uncharted 4 for example would probably have been a system seller if it had been released say nowish, but by the time it actually comes out, most people who want a ps4 will probably already have one. one thing I am pretty confident of is that the current sales rate of the ps4 now will not sustain indefinitely. it will probably always sell well, but the next big surge probably won't happen until they announce a significant price drop for the hardware that opens its availability to a new demographic of more budget minded players. maybe thats 2016... who knows.
Yup I agree... 'Well Said" Sony's catalogue is quite small and yet the console still sells at an awesome rate, even exceeding Sony's own forecasts. I think it's very possible PS4 could do those numbers. It would be an incredible feat, but it's not beyond the possible. And as AngelicIceDiamond commented 'Sony hasn't even brought out the big guns out yet...' and that's coming from an Xbox One owner! :)
That's seems to be reaching a bit, I'd say between 45-50 million by the end of 2016. @ats1992 Exactly
So 1 million more than your high guess is reaching? I'm not agreeing with their estimate but it seems like you're being a bit picky. @ats1992 thanks, missed that bit. Sorry to fitgamer if that's what you meant.
He says by the end of 2016 in his comment the article says 51 million by 2016.
Damn PS4 domination is too real ! JK: This just beginning not the end!: Serious.
Calm down, this is an estimate. 7 million in 5 full months is great by all accounts, but this is strictly assuming that Sony keeps up with demand and that demand doesn't die. I'm projecting 35-40 million by 2016's end.
it is a fantastic rate for sure. the problem is that it means people who want ps4's will at some point in the near future all have ps4s. once those demographics hit saturation, sales will slow down. We've seen the same trend with PC's, smartphones, tablets, HDTVs, the wildly popular Wii when it was launched etc. Nobody is going to go out and continue to buy multiple ps4's, so it will naturally taper.
They're just guessing, PS4 could sell more or less, nobody knows
ps4 is selling well but 51 million.. nope I doubt it. because ps4 would have to sell 20 million consoles in 2015 and 2016 so to be realistic I would say they may sell between 10 and 15 million a year
Quite an impressive prediction. Nostradamus would be proud of you! Guess the world isn't going to end by then. ; )
That's uh... That's pretty high. Are you sure about that? I imagine it will continue to be the top selling console, but that's a bit high. I don't know. That's 51 million consoles in slightly over two years.
This: In order for the industry to match the sales of the seventh generation, digital will have to continue to grow - and it appears that it will. Please if they cut out the middleman..Gamstop..GAME etc...please give the consumer back the 12% that these shops make on physical copies games.
Why would digital have to continue to grow to match game sales? Whether it's sold at retail or digital, it's still a sale. I agree though. Passing on the savings would be nice. Sadly, we don't really see that much in the console marketplaces. I think Sony dabbled a bit with it on their Vita releases, but the price of the memory cards made it kind of a wash.
The longer we go into this generation the more 1st party studios deliver for PS4. Its highly likely that they will reach the estimates in 2016. They also have other selling points like VR still in the pipeline.
I don't see them selling 51 million consoles in 2 years maybe 25 mil is more of a realistic number
Even if its the end of 2016, 50+million seems like a stretch... I mean can they even produce that many? I believe Wed Morgan Bush has predicted 37 million by start of 2017; and 29 million Xbox Ones.
unless they have half the studios working on VR software because they need the income from morpheus being successful . hopefully that doesn't happen of course .
True. But i think they only need one killer app to demonstrate the potential of VR and people will adopt it. I know i will.
Depends on the game which I know Sony seems to always deliver. However, MS may have some games that'll slow Sony down at least for some people. So far I'm only interested in Quantic Break and Project Spark from MS. May change come E3. PS4 is selling really well though and it may pick up come post E3.
One doesn't have to slow down just because the other speeds up. There is enough room for both to do well in the market. Really depends on how many people are torn between the two consoles.
Doesn't have to but most likely will as people decide what console they're going with. Not everyone has money for both. I agree there is room for both to do well I didn't say there isn't. I said one can slow down a bit if the other steps it up. Although PS4 is outselling the X1 by a lot, the X1 is still doing well so obviously there is room for both to do well. Majority of gamers are torn right now as most are still on the PS3/360/Wii consoles.
Assuming everything stays constant and the competition does nothing. Maybe.
I highly doubt that, it's true both consoles will sell great and both consoles need eachother in order to have a healthy market. But with the amount of people going mobile and shifting their interests into other things I don't think it will reach that much in less than 2 years. It depends on games and how Sony will make use of their VR (morpheous) We also don't know what amazon and Google are planning to do.
I don't see Google or amazon getting in the big console industry if anything they will go all out to try to capture casuals by putting candy crush type games on their consoles
I agree it will sell well. However, 50 million is a pretty tall order.
The last line of the article says "IDC's 73-page report, Worldwide Video Game and Entertainment Console Hardware and Packaged Software 2014-2018 Forecast, will be available this week." wonder if they meant 2018...or maybe they did mean 2016...
It should make for interesting reading. I hope it gives clear indications as to the methodology it used to make those predictions.
lol 40mil in one year ok what do they think it is the wii?
Digital game prices are way too high to take over retail sales!
I have been finding digital prices the same or less than retail prices in my region (Canada) for new content. True though, when it comes to older content, you can usually get it cheaper at retail than digital. But, if you stay on top of the PSN and XB digital sales you can end up about even over the long haul. A few tricks I use: - Never buy a good selling game day one... They will put it on sale usually a month or two after release. - Watch the digital sales - Never buy the season passes for DLC. It is often cheaper to wait for sales
A man could see it. It will be at $300 by the start of 2016 and all the devs will have moved on to next gen by holiday 2015 so it should see a huge holiday. Also the extrapolation of its early lead into the friends of those people buying it should help it stay strong in NA. PS3 did about 35m or so over the same span so PS4 at $200 less and with a much better start can certainly do it.
Kinda high estimate but we will see.
It is dominating and it will continue to dominate. Gaming is returning to where it is best. Variety; and no one brings variety to the forefront like Playstation. A myriad of genres for everyone to enjoy. That is the reason that the PS name has done so well over the last 20 years. There's something for everyone. Children grow up and move on from Mario, and most gamers want more than online shooters. This is where PS takes the reigns and offers much more.
Lol....at the estimate...riiiight
Why do you think its funny? Its very likely and probably a tad underestimated. I don't think you understand where PS4 stands right now.