"Managing Director of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter is a man of many opinions, many based in analytic reasoning but controversial for some all the same."
Mp should retire looking a little old for gaming
I know am probably going to receive a few disagrees but I have to agree with him on this one. I don't think there is enough ground work for VR at the moment. May be after 5 years but definitely not now.
have you tried it? *EDIT* apparently people disagree with me asking a simple question out of interest... i asked as he stated he doesn't think there is enough ground work for VR at the moment. i was simply wondering if his opinion was from experience or blind opinion.
I'm not yet a fan of any kind of VR , but the simple facts so many people funded so "easily" something like the Rift , and made it noticeable enough to be immediately purchased by a bigger company tell a different story imo . Some people just keep having unrealistic expectations . No one said anything yet about it being such a mainstream success it would be the new king in gaming world . It's just there to fulfill a demand for a particuliar audience . We heard the same crap about 3d , and people still act as if it disappeared , when it's the opposite . It's now such a default feature in a few modern devices , that's there is no need to pretend it's hype . It's silently there and still growing , so who cares about the rest and making headlines ?
As much as I wasn't for the whole Oculus buyout hoopla, upon futher thought, I can't help but think that Facebook is perhaps the greatest boon for Virtual Reality! Simply put, a full scale marketing blitz through a social media venue such as Facebook could definitely help with market penetration.
As long as you have to wear those douchey head sets I will be taking a pass.
I think he is right if he is talking about occulous rift alone. The problem with Occulous is that the mainstream don't like fiddling with crap to get it working. Installing drivers and tweaking secondary applications to get Occulous running correctly is going to be too much for the people who make the big sales. Morpheus on the other hand is a different story, if it's plug and play etc it will be alot more accessible for the casuals etc = big sales.
I think it'll be nothing more than a stepping stone toward full game integration SAO style just like Motion Control and 3D. Only difference is this step is gonna be enjoyable, unlike the other 2.
To be honest, if you listen to his reasoning as to why it's a fad it sounds about right: - physically demanding - niche approach, wider application beyond gaming - hard to develop for - high price tag Can anyone say 'Kinect'...
Pachter is always against any Sony product. I remember around E3 last year he was talking about how he was 'blown away' by Kinect on Xbone! I find him entertaining but bias and often wrong. He knows how to read current video game company financial stats well but he doesnt know what will be big in the future and doesn't really know games.
None are so blind as those who will not see. You can't help but think "What's wrong with these people?" When we finally get VR all these strange anti-future rants will become an old joke.
"MP should retire looking a little old for gaming" You're never too old for gamming. I plan to still be gaming until I drop.
Patcher is right this time. People are in denial if they disagree. Not many developers are going to create games dedicated to virtual headsets. The headsets are not ideal if you want to play with multiple people. Forget co-op. Big screens are always going to be more preferred. I wouldn't want to share headsets either and get someone else acne oil and bacteria on my face. And all people can't use the virtual headsets because it causes motion sickness. I wouldn't be surprised if the headsets caused more cases of epileptic seizures from the direct light flashing. Can you say fad?
Really? Splitscreen co-op is dead anyway, and with a Rift/Morpheus, people can just bring their headsets over for offline play (no screen-watching for FPS fans). Also, you're probably willing to share controllers, and I assure you that someone's face is generally cleaner than the part of their body they wipe their ass with (you can never be sure people wash their hands well enough); not to mention the perpetual issue of greasy controllers from the hands of "crisp-eaters". I doubt a Rift would be hard to clean anyway. As for the epilepsy, only 0.97% people have it, which isn't a huge market loss (and I'm sure the problems will go away as the tech gets better). And Sony will be creating a few exclusives, as we'd expect, as will Oculus (twice the support of Kinect). And then, consider that unlike the Kinect, VR has a PC-focused product (the Rift), which already has considerable indie support. If you look at the power of indie games on the PC, you'll see how big a deal that is (oh, and EA seem to be excited about VR too). Once many PC indie games come with VR (and PC gamers will mostly adopt it, given a Rift will cost about half to three quarters the price of a good GPU), we'll see these flooding through to PS4, and consequently increasing the attractiveness of the Morpheus. And once two of the three major hardcore gaming platforms have a strong VR integration, we can expect Microsoft to follow suit. This has way too much financial and community backing to be "just a fad". Pachter is wrong.
"Not many developers are going to create games dedicated to virtual headsets." You're not basing this on anything. It still depends on how much market penetration and attention it gets, but with Facebook and Sony now backing the technology, your assessment is a bit weak. ------- "The headsets are not ideal if you want to play with multiple people. Forget co-op. Big screens are always going to be more preferred" Incorrect. http://www.techradar.com/ne... See this is where research gets you. from the article: "There's an HDMI output and USB port, which gives wearers the ability to mirror what they're seeing to a TV screen and opens the door to multiplayer with people who don't have a headset of their own. " -------- "I wouldn't want to share headsets either and get someone else acne oil and bacteria on my face." Ever kissed a girl? More bacteria in someone's mouth than on their face, you can be sure of that. --------- "And all people can't use the virtual headsets because it causes motion sickness" And all people can't ride in vehicles cause they get travel sickness. I'm sure that's caused issues to the automotive industry. ---------- "I wouldn't be surprised if the headsets caused more cases of epileptic seizures from the direct light flashing." You only get epileptic seizures if you have epilepsy, genius. --------- "Can you say fad?" You, Pachter and the Xbox fanboys can. Meanwhile, I'll be reaping the benefits of increased immersion, which is where the gaming industry has always been moving towards. There's no better solution for increased engagement in games than VR.
I have to admit, I'm not sold on the VR idea. I usually don't agree with Pachter at ALL, but this time I do. All his reasons do make sense. I also think that as soon as VR is out and games are released that people were cry "been there done that" with following games. Games will have to always be original and always be different or they won't sell. PF course, this is just my opinion. Of course originality and being different is good, but how many different times can you do it? I hope to see some interesting VR games though that's for sure!!
True, but going back to gaming on a flat screen will be like returning to black and white TV. Indeed, the novelty value will wear off, but it will then just become standard, as colour TV is today (once, colour TV was seen as a fad, but after an initial novelty period, it just became the norm).
I understand all that. I can see where going back to black and white after having color doesn't work just like going back to "subHD" after experiencing HD is hard to do. I don't like anything that isn't HD or in color myself, I just believe this VR thing falls into a different category. It will sell I'm sure, but I do believe it's a fad for all the reasons stated including my own
FU Michael Pachter
If it was MS exclusive, it wouldnt be a fad.
is there anything that wasnt a fad for Pachter ?
I never agree with this guy but I think he is right this time. People didn't like 3D because they had to wear glasses. Now imagine this big bulky thing on your head.
To be fair cinema will always cater to a broader demographic than gaming. Trying to convince old people to adapt to wearing 3D glasses is a harder sell than saying to anyone who's ever played a first person shooter, "here's a devise that puts you inside the game for only £250". I think Sony studios have to release maybe three or four killer Morpheus only titles to move this into mainstream territory and they have to be ready to go as soon as this thing goes on sale. If they bring out a shit your pants horror game, a shooter or role player like skyrim and maybe a space sim and racing game like GT7 (Morpheus edition) and really encourage third party studios to develop for it I can see it doing quite well. If it follows the move and kinect formula of lazy development then it will fail, but I think the technology is way cooler than the above mentioned peripherals and developers brain storming sessions will be overloading with great ways to use VR.
@Dfooster 100% agreement, before this even went public key note speakers hat at siggraph for the past decade talked about VR being able to increase the depth of interactive graphics media not like it has been in the past but Now with the technology being enough to really make a go at it, why do you think Move work by design with the ps3 the way Dr marks talked in his key note demo back in 2000 about this kind of interactive optical isage for in depth motion gaming to not see move+VR = one of the most praticle grounded designs, not just for proof of concept but to really show a true ready or close for market release of such interactive computer entertainment with a low wnough price point to make it feasable add in move an you have a real close active feeling for a VR simulator that 25 years ago would cost way more with less accurate results to boot. Oculus rift like project morpheus just shows that even if VR concepts are nothing new they can infact be completely improved in and maybe at a consumer friendly price point..wink
@Ares84HU I don't agree because any wearable device will feel uncomfortable at first, but you eventually get use to it after a while. I remember when I first put a Bluetooth ear piece in my ear. It felt uncomfortable at first. but I got use it didn't hurt anymore ,and now I wear it all the time with out any discomfort. EDIT: Don't let the size of the oculus fool you...there not much component inside the VR casing. So it won't be heavy.
You can disagree all you want but any time I talked to anyone who didn't like 3D, one of their points was always that they have to wear glasses. This fact is conviniently forgotten now. I also find this very funny and laughable. When VR gaming will take off, you will recognize people who use it by their huge neck muscles. Hahahahaha
@Ares84HU I'm not going to get too technical. But VR are not the same as wearing 3d glasses at the movies. Our eyes are very depended on light to see. 3d Glasses block some of the light and most viewers won't experience the movie to the fullest. In VR world the screen are directly in front of your eyes, with out any lost of light. The gray tint from 3d glasses alone are annoying.
what he says still stand tho. its going to be a lot of people that are going to get turned off by wearing these no matter what the experiences is. people seem to think all games are like them, especially since you posting on a gaming website mean your more of a hardcore gamer than most. most people dont want to wear extra thing to get a better experience. buying extra hardware for over $250 to experience it is going to be another tough sell. i wonder if sony didnt announce their vr how many people would be saying the same thing. people started hopping on the vr bandwagon when the sony vr rumors started coming out. now everyone for it and half the site has tested it(funny seeing how console only gamers say they dont know any pc gamers). pc gamers had to defended ORift on every article before.
@Consoleslateagain First of all,I believe Sony got in to the VR business because the oculus was doing well. Plus, I'm pretty sure Sony did some research on how people felt about the oculus. And, Those who've already brought/tried the oculus dev kit say it's good. Young and old. That alone is enough of a reason to say there a market for VR. But on the flip side, People reject things they don't fully understand. now Don't get me wrong, I'm Not saying people don't understand VR technology. I'm saying people don't fully know what VR experiences brings to the table. So, its practically normal that people reject VR if they haven't tried before. The same thing happened with the internet/computers when it was first introduced back in the 80's. I think VR will excel faster than the internet because there no other know technology that I know can give us the experience as close to the real thing. I would never get a chance to walk on the moon simply because to too expensive or too dangerous. It cost apox 10 thousand dollar a pound to left man in to orbit. So I turn to VR and I'm sure there many people out there who wants to experience walking on the moon like I do.
You don't say? I never would have believed that. LMFAO! Let me find some real news.
First time I've ever agreed with him. This will be like 3D. Some people will get it, 99% won't bother.
The question is: Are you one of those who will get it, or u remain w the %99? Me? Yes, I will get it. Maybe the %99 is ok gaming on a flat screen, wich is fine. That is the way we have been doing it for a long time. But not me, I am a video game enthusiast and a tech lover. No one knows what will be the future for VR, but I don't care. I want to be in the front row w the %1.
99% for me
Going off him I can safely say VR will be the future of gaming then ;)
You mean like how XB1 was going to beat the ps4? And how the wiiU was meant to catch up over Christmas and become relevant? Please retire Mr Patcher
if anyone has tried the oculous rift (i have) then they wouldn't say that. it really is an amazing experience, even though i played the low res beta version it still felt amazing, just jumping around on team fortress in VR felt intense lol and the rollercoaster game i tried felt like i was really there. i truly felt i was locked into a new world, with better res & graphics it should be great. patcher's an idiot.
Normally I don't comment w a post have some kind of bias or insults. But... Since I have demoed the Oculus before I understand what u r saying. Totally agree w u. Most people join the conversation with an inexperienced opinion. Wait untill VR hits the market and people start using it. You will see a drastic change of opinion for those who still haven't experienced VR.
I think this is the main problem here, Michael Patcher isn't a gamer
I dont really see this taking off either. There might be room for it as a niche market, but VR has been around since the 80'ties, whats changed?
Before the best of use type of VR was so [email protected] costly to get any where near a simulated environment with such high cost to entry point it just was not market viable costs were way to high, but with added move or kinect added to the mix an increase in the VR dynamic interaction between people and inside the VR environment is much better attainable at a very reasonable pricepoint that with combined advanced Arm powered chipsets, Audio and 3D depth of field tracking at true 1:1 the software for games being able to make use of such hardware is why this is more viable now than it was so many. Years ago, think about with Wiimotion+ kinect and Move many think even today they were fads, but add in Vr of today than do you see why motion control was not just being released to the market for the hell of it? The key is it takes steps, and many in the computer software and hardware design area have been striving to advance computer entertainment to get to this point with out breaking the bank of the consumer. Many gamers has wanted Vr through out the years and as technology companies they are trying to do just that bring Vr to the market, not just old rehashed technology but are trying to advance the method that is viable. Seems to me they are on the right track.
I think patcher is right to some degree.The motion sickness alone can make or break VR. Plus I think most devs(like EA) will wait to see if VR is successful or not before investing their money in to it.
Like seasickness breaks recreational maritime travel... People will get used to it and it will go away. I used to get carsick as a child, but I don't any more. Horror movies used to scare me, but they don't any more. I imagine there will be a "breaking-in" period for any new VR user before they experience no more motion sickness.
@spartanlemur I agree, People will get used to the motion sickness and it will go away. So hopefully Sony/FB can minimize the motion sickness. I Can't wait to try it out for myself instead of jumping to conclusion.
if I can walk on mars for 250 bucks, im sold
i kinda agree with mr patch..
anyone who has tried the rift knows that this isn't going to be a fad! it's the game changer and the natural evolution of gaming. so far next gen has simply added further polish to existing gaming concepts. VR goes so much further and adds a level of immersion that hasn't been achievable before.
tried vr in the early 90's . while the graphics were bad the experience of total immersion was incredible. with todays graphics the vr experience is going to be much better. people downplaying this as a fad ( like Pachter ) are way off the mark with this prediction. gamers have been trying to fully immerse themselves in games since the start and now vr is near here and affordable gamers can now get the chance to see what they have been striving for since the birth of video games
@hardcorehippiez 100% exactly, this is about taking immersion to be sense receptive to the gamer something you cannot just gain with just a game pad all by itself. The point being the more receptive Active sensory impute from the gamer Active each frame, each sound each vibration all defines what impute you are gaining at any one time and how you can focus on that sensory impute. Its like a reverse of a sensory deprivation tank , now imagine that all impute is closed off except for the game impute to each of your Active senses! The better they can attain such the better the experience of just your senses concentrating on the game.
All the nay sayers will reverse once they play a VR game. Mark my words
We will see!
They just need a demo at best buy, and people will be sold on it! Horror games will be a perfect fit! :-D
Most people haven't used an Oculus. And most haven't been to GDC to try Morpheus. Both have already been heavily praised for their sense of presence, levels of immersion, and potential for unique experiences. A "fad" would indicate that it's something that lacks substance, and will only be here temporarily cause of empty hype that will die down. When VR already does what it has proposed with the possibility to further enhance it in the future on both PC and PS4, that's hardly "fad" territory. Pachter thinks that an apple is an orange, and thinks comparing it to failures of other fads in gaming like Kinect and 3D is something that makes sense.
Well said. I personally cant wait for VR
Its not just facebook or Sony do many not seem to get that take a look at this this was shown on sharktank http://www.virtuix.com/inte... VR is not only coming, but its coming in a big way people. Think about this kinect works with PC's there is an SDK, Sony's playstation move works with PC also. Think about it they knew Vr was in development by more than just themselves!
I can't say that I disagree totally. I think that in the short term it's going to very much be a very niche market that only hardest core of hardcore are going to embrace but content is going be a problem until the technology is refined. in another 7-10 years thought when a 2nd generation of headset is out, I think we'll be talking about a very different animal.
I hope that all of this VR isn't taking away any of the attention for developers in the other portions of the gaming industry. I have no interest in VR at the beginning of a new console cycle. I'm still waiting to be impressed by the tech hardware that actually is established.
Having tested both SD and HD occulus rift you can always tell when someone hasn't based on their opinion. VR is the future. Try it once and you'll find 2D interfaces so dull that you'll feel as though you are stuck in the past. Every game you play today, you'll begin to imagine how awesome it would be in VR. It's impossible to explain, almost describing sex to a virgin. I'm betting Pachter is a VR virgin. So I'll confidently counter Pachter's claims; VR will be as massive as radio, televisions, computers and smart phones. It is really all about immersion. We care about graphics because immersion makes the games we play much more engaging. It is 100% impossible to compare to a 3D movie such as Avatar which was really the movie industry desperately trying to keep butts in movie theatre seats. VR is a whole new ball game.
That is the kind of comment on this topic that I have been striving to make for a while, but you said it too damn well. VR has already proven its worth, and that means it can and will be delivered in a big way, especially with Facebook and Sony now involved. You win! Have a bubble.
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