IGN’s Ryan McCaffrey Makes Some Bold Predictions about the Xbox One and PlayStation 4

Karam Elahi talks about Ryan's predictions for the Xbox One and PS4; popularity splits, and a return to always-online policies: "Ryan McCaffrey, Executive Editor of Previews at IGN, has been making some pretty bold statements on Twitter about his vision of the future of the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One...he thinks that in the current generation of consoles (remember; the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 technically are current-gen consoles now), the PlayStation 4 could go 55% popularity compared to 45% for the Xbox One. Completely transposed from last gen, where in his opinion, the Xbox 360 was the leading console against the PlayStation 3, with roughly the same split."

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GraveLord1699d ago

55% marketshare for PS4 and 45% for Xbox 1? If we're talking US only, this is certainly possible!

Worldwide though? Laughable. PS4's marketshare will be way higher than 55%. Let me exaplain...

PS3 and 360 sold about 80m each last-gen. Combined, that's about 160million. What's 55% of 160m? 88m. You think PS4 will only sell 8 million more than the overpriced, year-late release PS3? NOPE.

karamsoul1699d ago

It'll be interesting to see the console trends this generation, no doubt. What will be even more interesting is how Sony and MS evolve their respective consoles throughout the current cycle.

b163o11699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

I don't see Sony making the same mistake twice, and what we've seen, Sony shares those views. They've had an excellent start, and I see them continuing that trend. With the PS3's troubled start Sony has been focusing on these moments when they first started building the 4, ensuring that there where few if any hurdles in there path, to start strong and keep momentum going....

I still can't get one!!!

jimbobwahey1699d ago

Ryan MmCaffrey is head of IGN's Xbox team, of course he's going to try his absolute hardest to downplay Microsoft's failures.

Remember people, this is the same guy that told us that Halo 4 is the best game in the series. His credibility is non-existent, to the point where even his colleagues have questioned his honesty.

BattleAxe1699d ago

The new consoles are selling like hotcakes right now, but in my own opinion, I don't think they will sell as many consoles as the PS3/360 generation.

Many people will stick with their PS3 consoles for many years to come since it really is a future proof machine. It's got a huge back catalogue of games, a web browser, it plays CDs, it plays MP3s, it plays DVDs, it plays Blu Ray discs, it does video chat, and it has Netflix and Youtube apps, which is as much as most people need today.

Unless the PS4 and Xbox One start to come out with jaw dropping games in the near future, I think console sales will taper off rather quick. Another thing that I think casual PS3 gamers will not be willing to entertain, is a yearly fee to play online. On top of that I personally know people who are going with PC this generation because of Steam.

Other people are pissed off at the fact that for a second generation in a row, there is no backwards compatibility. The lack of backwards compatibility has become somewhat of a trend regarding consoles, so people who are smart with their money know that there is no such thing as an investment with regards to either a Playstation Network account of an Xbox Live account. All of those digital downloads will be gone forever once they shut down the online stores for the PS3 and 360.

People, including myself, have been pretty hard on the WiiU for it's lack of sales and it's complete lack of games, I don't think that those are the only reasons for the WiiU's failure. I think that gamer fatigue is playing a huge role in the demise of the WiiU, and I think that gamer fatigue will catch up to the PS4 and Xbox One also. other than each console being far more powerful, what's really new that anyone feels is worthwhile?

I'm a hardcore gamer, but I could care less about Twitch TV, which is the only thing that really differentiates the PS4 from the PS3 other than the power of the hardware. The WiiU is the canary in the coal mine, and I personally think that the industry isn't sustainable, and will soon collapse from it's current form.

Sony is being very smart with regards to PS Now, as they will no longer need to worry about manufacturing hardware for each generation, instead Playstation will become a persistent service that people will jump in and out of whenever they feel like it.

rainslacker1699d ago

With Sony making such a big deal about not having all the DRM/always-on stuff at E3, I don't see them going back on that later just because. Despite what people may think, Sony isn't stupid, and doing such a thing would probably receive just as much backlash, if not more, than the X1 received.

If anything you'll see individual games push their online components more, and the trend is already starting to emerge very early in the generation.

da_2pacalypse1699d ago

In addition to what @jimbobwahey said, Ryan is extremely arrogant and uneducated about the area he covers. In one of the Gamescoops a couple of weeks ago he still was talking about how Halo 4 is such an amazing multiplayer game, and how the commnunity loves it so much.... funny, because halo 4 gets less than 10,000 unique users per day. That is the fastest a halo game has dropped this low. Halo Reach got to 10,000 per day about 2.5 years after release, while halo 3 was getting 100,000 per day right up until the launch of halo reach.

This guy just likes to talks crap and make the xbox look good for some reason. Which is ridiculously stupid. None of his colleagues are that arrogant. As a matter of fact, the PS3 team constantly points out the flaws that may exist in the sony consoles. But not this guy, he's just an idiot.

N4Flamers1699d ago

Battleaxe. While I do agree with your other points I don't know what you mean by second generation without bc. My snes didn't play nes games neither did the n64 or gamecube going backwards. My dream cast didn't play genesis games etc... I don't mind that the ps4 doesn't play ps3 games. I have them right next to each other if I want to play one I just change the imput. I don't mind bc when it's included (like in the og ps3 last gen or the 360) but it's not important.

I'm tired of last gen rehashes too. I want my ps4 games to be developed with that gen in mind to take advantage of the hardware, but what can ya do?

b777conehead1699d ago

battle axe
there going to make games for the ps4 and xbox one. if there was gamer fatigue then people would not be shelling out money for the ps4 and xbox one. its to costly to do backward compatibility in todays market. I have both the ps4 and x box one I am enjoying them if your happy with your ps3 fine. but for me im enjoying the new generation.

BattleAxe1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

@ N4Flamers

I get what you're saying, but what I'm referring to as far as backwards compatibility is concerned, is more to do with the digital download aspect. I have roughly 35 games that I bought on the PSN, which will not be able to be re-downloaded at some point.

I knew I was taking a risk when I decided to start to go with digital downloads, but I seriously didn't think that Sony was going to change the architecture of the system. I thought that Sony would find a way to make digital downloads continuous across platforms, and I thought that they would continue on with a more powerful Cell processor for three reasons:

1.) Developers are very much used to developing on the PS3 since they started using the Cell processor back in 2005 when making games for the PS3's launch in 2006.

2.) Piracy was far less of a concern with the Cell processor.

3.) I thought there was no way that Sony would force their customers to dump their accounts in favour of new hardware architecture. I was convinced that the PSN and also Xbox Live were going to span generations of consoles, making your PSN or Xbox Live account and the software you purchased continuous through a persistent network.

Now as it stands, console gamers will be re-buying digital upgraded versions of old games that they owned on the PS3. I'm sick and tired of things like this, so I've switched to PC gaming where this isn't even an issue. I'll still be playing all of the same games that Xbox One and PS4 users will be playing, with the exception of exclusives of course, but at the same time I can play Bad Company 2 or Rainbow Six Vegas on the very same machine. To me it just makes so much more sense, but then again, I've got much more experience in gaming than most people on this site.

mp12891699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

"Completely transposed from last gen, where in his opinion, the Xbox 360 was the leading console against the PlayStation 3, with roughly the same split."

-Since when are console sales, that already happened, opinions?

b163o11699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )


Valid point I never even thought that, developers don't really develop strictly for generation hardware cause there have to develop a game or two for last generation. More time equals better quality of product, which lead to happier gamers....……but that time kind of evens out...cause the time they took to learn is what makes there last gen games masterpieces. S/

Hate to do it to you bro, I didn't intend for this to happen

amiga-man1698d ago (Edited 1698d ago )

I don't know much about this guy but if his bias towards xbox is true then his words are even more telling, even he can't deny the PS4 will have the majority of market share this gen all he can do is try and downplay how much.

The truth is this Gen belongs to the PS4, the only question is by how much? I'm damn sure it will be a lot higher than 55% no matter how much fanboys would like to think otherwise.

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come_bom1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

I agree. In world sales the PS4 will have way more then 55% marketshare.

... unless ... Microsoft radically changes the X1 (much cheaper kinecless sku), improve XBLA's offerings (similar or better then PS+) and have a sh*t load of quality exclusives that we can't find anywhere else. If they continue with the X1 the way it is now and have the same quantity of exclusives the X360 had, they are fu**ed. They will have to work much harder then they did with the X360 if they want to achieve the X360's sales numbers.

Microsoft already lost the multiplatform war, with the PS4 having better multiplatforms. What remains are exclusives, Microsoft will need lots of them and they have to be "big" exclusives that sell consoles.

shorty74a1699d ago

After only 2.5 months out, nobody has lost anything yet. Xbox has not "already lost the multiplatform war" Com bom. To soon to tell. Unless the XBONE doesn't come down in price, it cannot catch up. Remember, the PS3 didn't really start selling until the price was on par with the 360.

morganfell1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

Price actually isn't the main issue. The PS3 started off higher priced and from that very start it outsold the 360 worldwide. Think about it. Even being more expensive it was outselling the 360 worldwide.

It isn't just price and those attempting to pin the issue to a single fault, any fault will be disappointed. It is price...and power, a history of the most original IPs, PS+, PS Now, did I mention power? It is attitude, customer treatment and the customer's perception of that treatment. There are numerous other factors and MS has been striking out on those from the word go.

Not only has it been a swing and a miss but everytime they attempt to explain why they APPEAR to have stumbled it only digs the hole deeper. There comes a time where you step into the pitch, own up and take one for the team. Honesty will in the end always be the better policy.

The recent statements by Penello and Greenberg clearly demonstrate the overwhelming value in realizing there is a time to simply just shut up.

This began with Sony surprising MS on two main fronts. First, most Sony developers and certainly Microsoft were unprepared for Sony's announcement in February of 8GB of GDDR5. Sony has historically skimped on console memory and I believe most people expected this to again be the case. Even most Sony developers were at the time instructed to rely on 4GB of memory.

Second, and perhaps more important I think MS expected Sony to ship in 2015 and MS would do the same. I think the announcment caught MS shorthanded and forced them to rush to market. It isn't just the hardware that feels underdeveloped on the X1. The policies and the entire DRM issue are matters that likely would have never seen the light of day had MS the time to test and wargame these possible decisions behind closed doors.

The X1 unveiling had the feel of an off the cuff cobbled together presentation. Those perceptions can in time be overcome but now MS is stuck with hardware that was originally intended to operate in a slightly differnt fashion and is grossly underpowered as compared to the PS4. And that is something that will be impossible to overcome.

This isn't the PS2 versus the Xbox so that attempt at comparison needs to be dropped. And the PS2 had volume sales on it's side. It is unlikely the X1 will ever close the gap and in fact once Sony's manufacuring catches up with demand for the PS4 the crypt on this generation will be forever sealed.

lipton1011699d ago

Market share and the rest of all that couldn't mean less to me. Last gen I was 360. I picked up the ps4 on launch day. I chose it over xbox one not because of some fickle allegiance, but because of price. I have a good job and can afford whatever one I want. They're both about 90% similar anyway and I was cool with owning the xbox even though it's slightly less "powerful." I've always hated kinect. Never owned it, never will. When the price of $100 more was announced had the mandatory kinect came with it , that was my deal breaker. I preordered ps4 in June 2 days after it was announced available for preorder. I was nervous about making the switch but today I couldn't be happier.

Mister_Dawg1699d ago

I wish people would pack in saying MS needs a kinect 'less' console. Its not going to happen. It would totally defeat the object of giving developers a common denominator.

Multiplats will most likely look a little better on PS4, yet the gameplay is going to be exactly the same. So that argument goes out the window.

MS can use its nuclear weapon. Its financial might. If MS felt the need to squeeze Sony's nuts in a vice, they would drop the xb1 price significantly. Sony cannot compete here, they are really up against the wall. However, why should MS drop price while the xb1 is selling well, despite being more expensive and not as powerful? It makes absolutely zero sense.

H0RSE1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

I always here the "cheaper kinectless xbox" argument, but what if they simply offered the xbox as is at a lower cost? Is the Kinect so bad, that even at the same price (or lower) as the PS4, people would still refuse to buy an X1?

With that type of mindset, couldn't they just drop the kinect and keep the current price? Seems like a case of many wanting their cake and eating it too - they want to pay that price, and they don't want a kinect. Well, I'm sure many don't want a number of the channels that come with their cable package, but they have to pay for them if they want the package....

It's a packaged deal - this isn't a new concept. If you want an X1, it comes with a Kinect. If you say you would get an X1 if it didn't come with a Kinect, then that just tells me you really don't want an X1 that bad - like saying you'll pick up a game when it goes on sale. I'm sure if the PS4 came with a plastic bag filled with dogs***, many would still have bought it...

Perhaps the idea that using your Kinect is completely optional (except for games they rely on it, like Kinect sports) should be pushed harder in advertising, since many people seem to think it is mandatory. Hell, with this information better circulated and understood throughout the community and with consumers in general, they could potentially drop the negative stigma attached to the kinect, and likely keep the current price. I've never seen such outrage and disdain towards a peripheral for a electronics device.

medman1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

This guy is horribly confused if he believes the 360 has a 55/45 favorable sales split over the ps3. The ps3 is leading in worldwide sales despite launching more than ONE FULL YEAR LATER than the 360. And that's not even accounting for inflated 360 sales numbers due to a preposterously high failure rate of 54 percent which caused many consumers to buy more than one 360 console, artificially inflating sales numbers due to a horribly designed product. Compare that to the ps3's estimated 10 percent rate of failure. Sorry folks, that's hardly a win, any way you want to slice it. Who hires these clowns?

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TheTwelve1699d ago

Worldwide, 65% for PS4 at the very least. I'm not prepared to believe 70% but I've been surprised before.

3-4-51699d ago


He completely left out Wii U as part of market share ?

I think this guy may need to re-think things a bit.

or is he just comparing the two companies that are ahead right now?

Wii U isn't doing great, but those people are a part of the market, and haven't bought a XB1 or PS4 because they have a Wii U or maybe some have both.

You need to factor that in, regardless of how low the number is.

WickedLester1699d ago

Dude, just stop embarrassing yourself! Wii U is not a player in this generation, I don't give a damn how many Mario and Zelda games they release. The unit is not moving!

rainslacker1699d ago

They were disregarded last gen by most gamers and the press as well. Despite the Wii crushing both MS and Sony for most of last gen, the generation was generally perceived as a two console race.

ABizzel11699d ago

He thinks,"the PlayStation 4 could go 55% popularity compared to 45% for the Xbox One. Completely transposed from last gen, where in his opinion, the Xbox 360 was the leading console against the PlayStation 3, with roughly the same split."

He was never the most informed at IGN. Many of the videos featuring him always had him agree ing with someone, and when he tried to make a point it was often baseless and borderline clueless, until someone reeled him back in to reality.

"the Xbox 360 was the leading console against the PlayStation 3, with roughly the same split."

In what world? Worldwide sales went to the PS3 not 360, and in the US XB Dominated PS3 around 65% : 35%. He's one of the most clueless people there, when it comes to technology and obviously facts / data as well.

55% / 45% split makes little sense, and obviously he forget about the Wii U.

There are on average 250 million console buyers, and If this keep going the way they're going the yes the PS4 could easily get 55% worldwide. The XBO would more than likely get 35%, leaving the Wii U with 10%.

PS4 = 55% = 137.5M
XBO = 35% = 87.5M
WiiU = 10% = 25M

Total = 100% = 250M

Those sales seem reasonable.

hellzsupernova1699d ago

It always seemed as long as it was pro Xbox he was aboard the train. I listened to him after the Xbox one reveal and the e3 and could not believe what he was saying, it was ridiculous. So biased towards one side.

I agree with your figures way more then anything I've seen from the professionals, especially when you look at world wide numbers.

The only place the Xbox one has a fighting chance is the USA and I think it will be an up hill battle for Sony mainly because a lot of the more casual madden, cod, kind of player are most likely going to stick with what they know.

LeCreuset1699d ago

I think he was talking head to head, but the rest of your comment I agree with. Where is he getting 55/45?

Bigpappy1699d ago

He was editor for the XBM. He leans Xbox. Everyone else there leans PS. His comment is most likely U.S according to their own internal polls, not a prediction of how sales will be 8 years form now.

You guys really want to see the demise of Xbox really badly, LOL. 10% sales victory for Sony would disappoint that many of you? Wow.

JoseV761698d ago

Dude the ps3 sucks, it was so slow, the loading was horrible, chat system sucked, and the shitty ui was garbage. I use to hate Sony consoles but am happy I have a ps4 now except the ui hate it one of my gripes with it but xbox360 definitely had a lead over the ps3 for several years! I had more fun with my friends chatting when playing on Xbox where ps3 you couldn't shoot the shit with your friends.

lazyboyblue1698d ago

@josev76 All valid points but one of those two consoles had the last of us, uncharted, god of war, flower, metal gear 4, infamous and many more.

That console blew my mind. The other Just blew outta your arse.

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1699d ago
dedicatedtogamers1699d ago (Edited 1699d ago )

Or to put it another way, Xbox 360 took roughly 30% of the PS2's marketshare away from the PS3. 360 sold nearly twice as many consoles in NA as the PS3.

This time around, it is likely the PS4 (which is already dominating in Europe and looks to at least match X1 in NA) will take 30% of the 360's marketshare away from the X1. No big surprise there, and it certainly matches the historical trend.

With that being the case, we're going to see something more along the lines of 60-70% of the market going to PS4, and 30-40% of the market going to X1

GribbleGrunger1699d ago

Yes, he's obviously talking about America only.

lifeisgamesok1699d ago

What is it now Xbox 3+million in 13 countries

PS4 4+million in 48 and having an earlier launch

It will be close... Face it

TheFanboySlayer1698d ago

Alright thats assuming every country has the same population....ur statement is invalid.

PRock101698d ago

The earlier launch was for North America. It launched a week later in the rest of the world and has supply shortages compared to the X1. It's called google and educating yourself, you should look into it.

sinspirit1699d ago

If you watch some of the videos he is in he leans way towards XBox One and his attitude about Titanfall feels really forced like he's trying to make a reason XBox is better when it really isn't that big of a deal.. not that the game looks bad.

TI_211699d ago

The difference between 55 and 45% of 160m is 16m. ;)

up2snuff1698d ago

No offense but what makes you think that XB1 wont sell more than what the 360 did then? You're simply anticipating extra sales for the PS4 alone.

Flames761698d ago

I doubt that with the PS4 shipping only 4.2 millon in 35 countrys and the Xbox One shipping 3.9 million in 13 countrys in only 5 in the states the X1 has done caught the PS4 in sales and outsold the PS4 every week but 1.The other difference is the PS4 posted a loss of 197 million last quarter.The Xbox division posted a profit of 7.79 billion..Of course the PS4 is losing $60 a console lol.While the X1 makes $8 profit off of each one sold

PRock101698d ago

Wow, none of what you said is accurate. Not my a mile. Sony is actually making a profit on the PS4, which is the first time they've made a profit on hardware. So you pulled that $60 out of your head that is in your @ss. And the Xbox division did not post a profit of $7.8 billion, that's astronomical numbers for any company in any industry. That's not even close. In fact, the Xbox division is a money drain on MS and there was talk the new execs coming in may drop the division or sell it off because it's operating at a decent loss. You, sir, have no clue what you're talking about.

No91698d ago

Xbox One costs $471 to make, selling at $499.
PS4 $381 to make, selling at $399.

Do you think they sell them to retail stores for this price? Stores have to make a profit too or it's not worth selling.

Neither company is making a profit on their console, yet.

Madock1698d ago

It will also be intersting to see what happens when Nintendo releases it's new console halfway through this generation
Ms and PS4 will become last gen halfway through their life cycle and with the right marketing the big N will take a huge chunk off their sales
If a hybrid concept releases, along with PS4/vita cross play, i don't know how Ms will react being now most inferior hardware yet expensive cause of Kinect (although i'm expecting massive price drops at a loss to MS at that point)
Game development for both will be a much longer process that before even if they r technically PCs, cost and coding for AAA titles will ensure that.
Games that r already announced r in development, but for studios just starting now then expect their games in 3 years time, 1 year after Nintendo's release perhaps?

VegasDawg1698d ago

It took 7 or 8yrs for ps3 to sell that much and it's a much better machine,ps4 wont last that long,lol.

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Biohazard88601699d ago

Sony wins worldwide Fatality.

theoneb1699d ago

That's not a bold statement. Sounds like a pretty safe bet to me.

D-riders1699d ago

was this article befoer or after the playstation now announcement. because game sharing seems last gen. The best aspects of xbox 1 online service was eclipse by playstation now. what do i need to share games for if i can sign up for a service that allows me to access games anywhere. even if my firend wants to use my account they can from anywhere. so why would always online even sound attractive anymore. I think ryan is way off. I personally dont see what xbox is doing to make someome spend 500. seriously id rather spend 500 on playstation now and access unlimited games for a year.

bleedsoe9mm1699d ago

if its as close as 55-45 thats good for all games , after all competition to close a small lead got us a good value service like ps+ . if the generation turns out to be a bigger blowout there is no reason not to either increase price or lower the value of such services .