With almost 12 million PS4, Xbox One, and Wii U consoles sold how will the current generation consoles fare going forward?
"Michael Pachter predicts sales of the PS4 to stand at 37.7 million by the end of 2016, 30 per cent higher than his estimate of 29 million Xbox One systems sold." That would be an insane lead.
And it really wouldn't mean anything to the "Big Picture". Both would likely be financially viable and - hopefully - producing worth while games.
What would the "big picture" be, in that case? Because I can see a lead like that affecting third party studios' decisions on where to release games, and how to support them. Surely that's part of the "big picture?"
@Hicken Did you forget Microsoft invests greatly in third party exclusives? They will always have the third party advantage as long as they're rich. Also, PS4 is being sold in 52 countries vs X1's 13 and only has a 1 million lead, and X1 has been outselling PS4 in the U.S. Xbox is doing incredibly well whether you Sony fans like it or not. I just find it funny how you implied that a third party would even think about dropping support for Xbox, keep wishing.
@georgenoob The PS4 has a 1.2 million lead, not 1 million (which will be even higher now, 4.2 mil total sales was as of December). And the 52 vs 13 territories argument is pretty pointless because many of those 52 territories are very small and receive very small shipments of PS4's. You can't just say "52 vs 13" and assume all 52 Sony territories are the same size/relevance as the 13 MS territories. If they were all of the same size/relevance then yes your argument would be valid. For example....if each territory was the size of the US and Sony were leading by only 1.2 mil despite having 39 more territories, it would be sensible to say that X1 sales are more impressive. But each territory is not the same, there are too many variables to just make that assumption. MS only have 13 territories to focus on and funnel their X1's too, considering that the majority of those are major territories and considering MS dont have to spread the X1 as thin as Sony is with the PS4, MS should be leading, but alas, they are not. Now im not saying the X1 sales aren't impressive, they definitely are considering it's power/cost difference compared to the PS4. It's doing much better than i thought it would. Just that the whole "52 vs 13 territories" argument isn't a valid one.
@Hicken That kind of a lead wouldn't be enough to cause many third partys to ignore the XB1. It would have to be something more substantial, like 40 vs 20 million.
"PlayStation 4 became the fastest selling console of all time"
It's all about percentages. If a game gets 5% attach rate to 40 million systems, it's 2 million in sales. If it gets 5% of 30 million it's 1.5 million. Not many devs are going to ignore that 1.5 million in possible sales. With the two systems sharing a very similar architecture, third party support is a no brainer as long as royalties and disc production costs are inline. The biggest factors that determine development are first party competitive releases and support from the console manufacturer.
WiiU will pull away with 10 billion sales next year. You heard it here first, folks.
Ah George. Good to see you haven't changed with the new year. The real numbers story is the huge drop in XB1 sales even though supply is still plentiful. I think XB1 will sell well enough to be supported just fine, but I also think PS4 being both more powerful and easier to work on will translate to a (continuing) noticeable multiplat edge, especially if XB1 doesn't close the gap.
@georgenoob That's the dumbest argument I've read yet. It doesn't matter how many countries the consoles are available in. If the PS4 was only available in the US, it would still have sold 4.2 million by the end of 2013. The fact of the matter is Sony is out producing and out selling the Xbone. Period. Just because Sony opted to not try and pad state-side sales figures by narrowing their release territories does not take away from the fact they were up 1.2 million over Microsoft last year.
Looks like Hicken is salivating at the thought of the PS4 getting third party exclusives. He either hates Microsoft or loves Sony. Don't tell me it's both lol. Either way the big picture will likely remain like it did before. The same support with a few exclusives on both while Japan studios favor the playstation.
@kneon: This is a projected lead after 3 years. That's a lot after 3 years. And if digital extends the length of this generation like we know it can, that could be only a third of sales. We saw what Microsoft did- in terms of 3rd parties- with a lead of comparable size last gen. @Noobz: You must not know Sony very well. Outside of the Wii, which saw quite a bit of shovelware you wouldn't find on other consoles, the console with the most third party exclusives was the PS3. Though mostly of the JRPG variety, the PS3 saw a large number of third party exclusives from Sega, ATLUS, NIS, and others(obviously don't forget Quantic Dream). That trend is already continuing for the PS4. And the real kicker is: Sony doesn't have to pay for the exclusivity of these games. Maybe they won't be flat-out exclusives, but you can expect some timed exclusivity and exclusive content, as well as being the lead platform(meaning better versions of mutiplats) more often.
@georgenoob Microsoft does have a lot of money, but don't think they're going throw billions of dollars this gen securing exclusives like last gen. It helped early last gen because it helped them gain a large marketshare, but now that they have a fanbase, it's not like they're going to do so again. They lost a lot of money paying for exclusives and timed exclusives. Also, even though Microsoft did pay for exclusives, Sony still has many Japanese companies who develop exclusively for them(as does Nintendo.) NIS, Gust, and many others, develop almost exclusively for Playstation platforms. Namco Bandai announced that they're keeping the Tales of series on the PS3 and when they go next gen it'll go to the PS4. Koei announced 1080p60 ports of a few games exclusive to the PS4. Aside from the HD collection on the Wii U, Sega's Yakuza series has been a Playstation exclusive franchise. Falcom has developed for other consoles in the past, but most of this gen they've been Playstation and PC exclusive. Without the need to purchase exclusives, Sony has a lot of Japanese developers who are developing for them and not the Xbox One. While not all the games will be localized, the amount of exclusives Microsoft can secure will more than likely be localized.
Are you daft hicken? Those games are from Japanese developers you mentioned which I already covered. Quantic is also exclusive to Sony. Anything else you want to bring to the table? Nothing you said countered anything. Microsoft is also getting exclusive titles from Remedy and insomniac. My point is nothing will really change this gen from last no matter how much you want it to.
@ Lukas "You can't just say "52 vs 13" and assume all 52 Sony territories are the same size/relevance as the 13 MS territories." You can't just say the numbers NOT relevant. While many of those 52 territories are small, that's a HUGE difference over 13. Plain and simple. Lets say that 39 of those territories only account for 1 million PS4 units, add that amount or hell even only 750,000 to the Xbox One total, and the conversation would change dramatically. And what power difference? I don't know if you've ever seen Ryse. But its as good looking as Killzone. If it was THAT much more powerful, it would show, but alas it does not. @Hicken If the game will sell on both systems the 3rd party developers will make games for both. Their not going to say "The PS4 has 30 million sold, and the One only has 25 million, so lets just make it for the PS4, and completely forget about those 25 MILLION gamers". That's what the Sony fanboy sheep don't get. READ THIS SLOWLY: THE LEAD SONY HAS WILL NOT CHANGE WHAT SYSTEM ANY DEVELOPER IS GOING TO MAKE GAMES FOR.
"While many of those 52 territories are small, that's a HUGE difference over 13. Plain and simple. " Exactly, a huge difference composed of mainly small territories. His argument only works if all territories are the same/roughly the same size/relevance. There are too many variables to just say "52 vs 13". I mean....Sony are leading in the US....... The US is MS HOMELAND.....how are they managing to let Sony lead there? It's just complete domination, even with trouble keeping up with demand. It's crazy, the PS4 is simply the hottest consoles of all time. And i wasn't saying that the numbers aren't relevant, im saying that you have to take into account that the numbers don't all mean the same thing. In other words, not all territories are the same. "And what power difference? I don't know if you've ever seen Ryse. But its as good looking as Killzone. If it was THAT much more powerful, it would show, but alas it does not. " Sigh, not this again. The power difference shows to people who aren't ignorant. RYSE is a linear hack and slash which despite only running at 900p it still dips into the teens, whereas Killzone SF is open area, full 1080p, sits between 30-60fps in the SP and has high res textures, better lighting, particle effects, real time reflections/ray trace lighting. Yopu put Killzone SF on the X1 and see if it would run AS GOOD as it does on the PS4 at 1080p and with all the tech effects turned on. The only department that RYSE beats Killzone is character models and animations. Go to the Neogaf "next gen screenshots" thread and see for yourself. Or better yet, see them in person.
ThePope* A developer will go where there is money, its that simple, that's all this is about now a days it is all about da mean green my friend.You are currently developing for a console that has sold 20million units, Good right? You're doing well. But wait whats this other console that gamers are so into, why are there so many more of these other consoles being sold??? This console has sold 35million units (as example of course) Now the question goes back to the console that has sold 20million units. How much can you pay us stay a stand alone developer for you over developing on both consoles? The Money has to be a great deal of a lot. Otherwise of course a developer will cross develop if there is extra money involved. So you're point is not really valid and yes if paid off well, which is what MS is doing to try and trap gamers to the XB1...
@ Lukas "And i wasn't saying that the numbers aren't relevant, im saying that you have to take into account that the numbers don't all mean the same thing. In other words, not all territories are the same." That's what I said, re read it if you have to. The fact still remains that if Xbox was in those territories it would be a much closer race (and its already close). "Sigh, not this again. The power difference shows to people who aren't ignorant" Listen home boy I've been playing games since I first played basketball with a square ball on the Atari. On top of that I've played both games on a 60" Panny VT60 (and if you know so much you should know what that is) and they both look amazing. Ryse does something's better than Killzone AND visa versa. But the point is IF the power difference was so glairing as you and your fellow fanboys have said. Why does it not show? And please don't refer to Killzone as an open "area", that's just dumb. It's a liner FPS as the first 3 were.
Pope - The difference does indeed show. That's what I think Lukas is trying to tell you. I've played both and I have to say KZ looks materially better. Ryse looks good, don't get me wrong, but it has this odd shiny/plastic lighting effect that doesn't look right. Further than the eye test, just look at the specs in terms of what the hardware is doing with each. Resolution and frame rate are materially higher on the PS4. If you choose to ignore that or choose to ignore the output on your VT50 (I have the same TV), then I guess we're an impasse.
"IF the power difference was so glairing as you and your fellow fanboys have said. Why does it not show? " It does show, for the very reasons i just mentioned. KZ holds a much higher framerate, at a higher resolution with more effects in a larger area. I don't care how long you have been gaming or what TV you have, you're still wrong, because those are indisputable facts. It's not my fault if i list the reasons how it does show but you continue to say it doesn't, that's an issue you have with either accepting the truth or how you comprehend sentences. "And please don't refer to Killzone as an open "area", that's just dumb. It's a liner FPS as the first 3 were." But it is technically open area......It's still linear, but not corridor linear like RYSE is. It's open area and has multiple flanking routes/options to tackle each level. Take the forest level for example, the area is actually quite large for an FPS. I think you are reading my comment as "Killzone SF is a free roamer!". It is much more similar in level design to Crysis 2+3 compared to say.....CoD, for example. If the X1 runs RYSE with dips into the teens at 900p, then it wouldn't have a chance in hell running Killzone SF as well as the PS4 does. The difference in power will become more and more noticeable as the gen continues, just like it did last gen.
@Lukas You assume someone is ignorant, and you talk about how impressive KZ is and then say you don't care what TV I have? Which to me sounds like you're saying ALL the stuff KZ does better (Native, Framerate) matters, but what you watch it on doesn't. Then brother you're ignorant. On top of that the true test is the eye test. Because anything you can say about a game, you can only see so much and at the end of the day that's all that matters. Many next gen comparison pictures (like the ones on Neogaf) are MASSIVE screen shots or extreme zoom ins. If it takes that much to see the differences, there not worth mentioning. "The difference in power will become more and more noticeable as the gen continues, just like it did last gen." Outside of The Last of Us what games are you referring to? Not Multi plats as the vast majority ran better on the 360(look at Skyrim). So I'm confused. And to honestly believe that both consoles wont get better is just plain...oh I don't ignorant.
The # of territories has absolutely no bearing on the sales. PS4 cannot keep up with global demand. Everywhere on planet Earth they are sold out, and preorders are also astounding. Do you honestly think that SONY's manufacturing is directly linked to the existence of those territories? No. They make a given amount and send them out. Whether it be domestically, abroad to the US and UK, or throughout other markets. Seeing as the PS4 cannot keep up with demand, it matters not if they ship and sell 10 million to the US, or ship and sell 500k to 20 different markets. Now if PS4 was like Xbox and sat on shelves everywhere, then yea your argument would hold water obviously. *When Xbox can strip supply in any market, let alone all of them, then cry foul about the number of markets. Until then, just deal with the fact that PS4 is clearly the favored machine all over the Earth and that it is smashing records. Xbox One is doing well, but come now. Its a puppy in the ring with a tiger.
The multiplat games have shown a difference already but never was there such a disparity on resolution during the last gen. What has being an old gamer got to do with killzone pushing more polys and at a better framerate than ryse. Killzone is technically better...I personally wouldn't compare such different types of games but some people obviously don't mind. Higher resolution already shows power...why are some people still arguing about this....lol
Lmao, why are you talking about TV's? If someone plays RYSE on their TV and then Killzone on the same TV....Killzone will look better. I don't quite understand your argument here, i don't think you do either. Unless you are saying that on YOUR TV RYSE might look better than Killzone does on someone else's 14 inch portable? Lol. If both games are being displayed on the same TV, Killzone will look better, every single time. And it's not just Killzone that proves the power difference, the multiplats all look better on PS4, it's clear to anyone who isn't ignorant or in denial. "MASSIVE screen shots or extreme zoom ins. If it takes that much to see the differences, there not worth mentioning. " They aren't zoomed in, they are native screenshots taken with the share button. Both RYSE and Killzone screenshots are heavily compressed, but even so you can clearly tell which is the better looking game. Let me prove it : https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.a... http://abload.de/img/amarec... http://i5.minus.com/ib29akc... http://i1.minus.com/ibbLzES... http://abload.de/img/201312... You can argue all want, but numbers are indisputable. Killzone does more at a higher res and a higher framerate. Fact. "Outside of The Last of Us what games are you referring to?" I was talking exclusives, my bad for not saying so. Gears 3 compared to Uncharted 2 or 3? No contest. Killzone 3 vs Halo 4? No contest. Then there's Beyond 2 souls, God Of War 3/Acension, Infamous 2. The exclusives showed the difference, just like they are now and will continue to do so. "Not Multi plats as the vast majority ran better on the 360(look at Skyrim)." You don't have to tell me that, i have over 103k gamerscore on the 360. "So I'm confused. And to honestly believe that both consoles wont get better is just plain...oh I don't ignorant." Woah woah woah, don't put words in my mouth "homeboy". I din't say the X1 won't get better overtime, obviously it will, learn to read. I was simply stating that the power gap will increase as time goes on. Devs from both sides will use more and more of the power available, and seeing as the PS4 has more power, the gap will be larger, the X1 will be tapped out before the PS4 in other words. Calling me ignorant, when i didn't actually insinuate what you called me ignorant for.....is very ignorant.
All Pachter did was look at the current % lead and project it out. Nothing crazy or shocking. The guy is Captain Obvious.
Am I the only Xbox fan that is glad that they are "losing"? The way I look at it, as long as they are trying like crazy to play catch-up, I'll get to reap all the benefits. lol
You're not the only one :)
That is an EXCELLENT point. I'm a PS fan, but I believe this to be true as well. Microsoft became too complacent by the end of the 360's lifespan(to the point that the 360 IS dead, unlike the PS3 which is still going strong), and it came back to bite them. Having to deal with Sony making such an insane impression with PS4 will force them to work on being on equal ground. They still have a ways to go, though, especially with their online service. XBox Live is NOWHERE near the great value PS Plus is.
Like people say, competition is good. :)
Good point, i never thought of that. MS at the end of the 360 lifecycle = relaxed in armchair with no worries. MS now = making MUCH more of an effort to get back in gamers good books. And like you said, the end result of that is you reaping the benefits. @DVAcme "Having to deal with Sony making such an insane impression with PS4 will force them to work on being on equal ground" Exactly.
The only losers are the ones that can't pay the light bill at the end of the month. Microsoft doesn't care if they sell more units as long as they can turn a profit with their investment. Same for Nintentdo. Nintendo does a great job of bringing in revenue and turning a profit regardless what Microsoft and Sony are doing. It's nice to brag to your investors you outsold the competition, but only if you are making money with their investments. Anyone can give money away, the hard part is making it.
Xbox division hasnt been profitable
Microsoft releases their financial statements to the public. http://www.microsoft.com/in... The Entertainment and Devices Division that houses Xbox shows revenue of $10,185,000,000 and an operating income (profit) of $848,000,000 in 2013. In 2012 they posted similar revenue at $9,599,000,000 and operating income of $380,000,000. I would hardly qualify that as not making a profit.
@unholy Since this is a site is very pro sony, just using words in combination like xbox and losing will get u bubbles up regardless of what u say after that.
Good point. lol
nice logic there but if you havent looked at most ppls bubbles, there are no blatant sony fanboys with lots of bubbles. Kinda hard to prove this is a sony fanboy site when the evidence doesnt back you up at all. Please try harder next time tho k.
I'm with you :). Let the hate keep flowing for MS and the X1. It will certainly make them work harder than they have already and owners like us will enjoy the fruits of said hardwork :)
Its all well and good but I need some games to play. The curse of an early adopter.Damn!, I'm looking at super nintendo and genesis games to buy.
Yes lets look at more sales numbers so we can pat ourselves in the back at the fine job sony is done.Zzzźzzzzzzzz sony is bestzz! !!!
Well at least I benefit when Sony does well so sales numbers and market share are pretty important to me.
We can only wonder if sales would be such a focus now if the 360 crowd hadn't made a big deal about them last gen. We'll never know, but most MS fans that have been on N4G for awhile should have nothing to say about sales conversations because they loved them back then… nearly right up to the moment when 360 fell to 3rd place.
LOL i remember that, every week there was a new article "360 ahead of ps3 in the US" "PS3 doooomed" and the 360 fanboys all having a circle jerk, then when numbers started get close to even world wide they all of a sudden didnt seem to care any more. Its like some spoiled kid that was fine and dandy winning in a basketball game but then when the other team started to catch up he took the ball and went home.
So you expect games developers to go oh... Playstation have 37.7 million consoles I will release exclusively for them? or maybe they will see that releasing a game to 66.7 million consoles would be better?
i can see why you have 3 bubbles.. you should not talk sense on here, and instead say how stupid it would be for third parties to make games for the platform with 30m consoles.
Or... The publishers can say Sony has 37.7 million PS4s out there, we are definitely going to make games for the console with that kind of a lead in install base. Basically making it that much harder for Microsoft to buy 3rd party exclusives like Titanfall. So in that sense the sales figures would effect how the publishers handle third party games.
If theres money to be made, 3rd party support will be there guarenteed. Sure making $65 million is better than say $50 million profit. But $50 million is still 50 million regardless if its a bit less to devs.
I understand your point in principle. However, it is possible that a developer would indeed say that if margins were higher when only developing for one platform versus multiple platforms. I don't know how much more overhead there is in having both a PS4 and XB1 version. If it's a low-cost issue, then yes I agree with you. Sony and MS care about the bottom line, not the top line.
I think it means nothing. :)
I agree in the since that its to early to say what will happen in terms of which console will go in to sell the most consoles but at the moment in time the games industry is looking strong and Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony are doing well. Now its up to all 3 to bring the big name games to attract the rest of the current gen users onto there new consoles. This year is looking like it will be a good one for all 3 though as the Xbox one is looking to have titan fall and Halo 5 out this year. Nintendo will have Mario Kart and Super smash bros as well as a Zelda game. Sony will have Driver Club so its now up to the gamers who want to upgrade over the next 12 to 18 months to decide which console has the best games for the needs. People on this site really need to stop the my console is better than you and start saying I love my console because but I like the look of a game on another console as there is not going to be any one out there who can say they don't fancy any of Sony's, Microsoft's or Nintendo's ips.
This is the post I wanted to write but don't have the time or means, cellphones don't cut it lol. Well said only fanboy would disagree
Only one of those is actually making money though.
Yet another uninformed comment. Sony make apprx $18 profit on each PS4, granted that's not a lot, but you're still wrong. Throw in PS plus subs and games/accessories and Sony will do much better this time around than they did with the PS3 when it comes to profit. Do you ever research something before commenting?
Wasnt there a article saying sony sells their ps4 at a loss?
@ Belking And how much of the profits are you seeing?
His pad is actually a calculator. Pity he gets zero revenue for his loyalty and number skills......unless he's a shill of course. All that profit and they drop support for 2 gens straight. They sure are smart.... well as they say, a good race horse only just clears each fence. Meanwhile the broke guys commission the game of the year/gen, the same year it releases it's new console.. and I can use a pad to play it.
"the death of console gaming"!!
People adopting paid online like sheep this gen, only assures consoles will succeed.
Everyone who said that was looking at stuff like Farmville and pretending that it was eating away the core gaming market (it's also where the inflated PC gaming numbers come from).
We really dont need any "closer looks" or explanations of "what the sales really mean"
Unless you work for all 3 companies you shouldn't worry about sales you should worry about the games. Hardware can only carry you so far without software its meaningless. Here's hopping all systems get great games in 2014.
Theres always a first place and a second place, okay so what if sony leads by eight million consoles, 37.9 to 29, those are still very good numbers for both. Competition is great, we dont want one company monopolizing this industry. Xb had lower sales then ps2 but had great exclusive games too.
The industry was fine was ps2 was dominating and when the first playstation was dominating ,why would it be any different now ?
Ps2 was not fine in my eyes, it was a great system till the x-box came out. X-box brought true online gameplay, to me that was a selling point. Xbox clearly sold less, but alot of the games that did come out for xbox were real good. Playstation was dope, but ps2 was more the same thing but with better graphics. If sony only runs the industry they will becone complacent like they did with ps3. Xbox 360 was good they became complacent with xbone. Competition is awesome .
The only thing it means is its sad that sony has only sold 4.2 million in 52 countrys while PS4s are sitting on shelves at walmart.For the Xbox One selling over 3 million in 5 weeks in 13 countrys with a higher price tag is amazing.Can only imagine what the Xbox One will hit once it gets to the other countrys in the next few years.Also its nice to see the X1 has caught the PS4 in sales here in america even though the PS4 launched earlier.Another month and it will pass the PS4 in sales in the U.S hell its outsold the PS4 5 weeks out of 6
It's too early them numbers don't mean shit. Games good AAA quality games is where it's counts.