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Bold Prediction: The Wii U Will Outsell The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One This Holiday

Gamnesia: "Before I begin I should note a few things about myself. No, I am not Michael Pachter. What I mean to say is, I am not an expert in the field of studying the stock market and predicting future trends. Chances are Mr. Pachter’s figures for console sales this holiday will likely be more accurate than mine, which is why I am not going to dabble too much in exact numbers. There are people way smarter than I am who will do that for me as time moves on.

I am also really not an expert in anything else. I’m a video game enthusiast. I enjoy playing video games regardless of platform and I’ve been writing about video games for over a decade. My opinions are my own and they don’t represent anyone else at the site. Some like what I have to say and sure, occasionally I have been spot on when predicting things, but overall it’s a wash. You win some you lose some.

Saying the Wii U is going to outsell the two upcoming generation 8 consoles seems like a crazy thought. The Wii U sold massively at launch and was one of Nintendo’s highest selling console launches ever—but sales have really tailed off. Worldwide, there were 3.5 million units sold during the holidays last year and last I counted, the Wii U hasn’t passed 4 million in the 10 months since. Still, things are lining up for another stellar holiday season—to the point where I firmly believe it can outsell both the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One."

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_QQ_944d ago

Very bold prediction, The only way i see that happening is if Nintendo Advertises Wiifit U on news stations ect as the newest must have exercise product and the casuals eat it up.

darthv72944d ago

nintendo would be worried people might try and stand on the gamepad. unless...of course, they really let people know that all their existing wii accessories (like the wiifit balance board) works with the wii-u.

In fact, they should have been upselling a feature which is sorely lacking on the up coming ps4/xb1. direct play BC for all previous wii titles.

But back to the main topic...outselling the likes of ps4/xb1...yeah that is a bold prediction.

us_army944d ago

A nice article, and well said opinions, but I'm sorry to respectfully tell you that this is not happening. It may win in a particular region, however looking at worldwide sales, this won't even be remotely close unfortunately for Nintendo. I wish I could elaborate, but these console launches are about to be massive... Yes I said both, as both wouldve beaten the previous record. As for who will sell more head to head this holiday, I think most peoples current assumptions will hold truth.

mikeslemonade944d ago

Nintendo has really lost all of its mindshare. Everyone knew what the Wii1 was and the casual gamers thought motion technology was so amazing.

Right now.. the same people hardly know that there is a WiiU. The Xbox 360 and PS3 will sell more than the WiiU this holidays.

badz149944d ago

the writer said "No, I am not Michael Pachter."

he meant his prediction is gonna be right?

or he just wanted to imply that he's not Super Captain Obvious?

UltimateMaster944d ago

I predict the PS4 will outsell the Wii U's 1 year lead starting this holiday by next spring.

rainslacker944d ago (Edited 944d ago )

Yeah, Sony said they already have over 1 million pre-orders. That's up to 1.5 now by some reports. One MS rep hinted that X1 has at least 1 million pre-oders, but gave no concrete numbers.

So at a minimum, Both systems will sell AT LEAST 1 million units before Thanksgiving even rolls around.

This doesn't take into account that Sony is reporting to have units available throughout the holiday in store, but doesn't really comment on how likely it will be available...whether a trickle or constant stream.

Now I really like the Wii U, but given it's current status, it's hard to imagine that it's going to come anywhere close to those numbers. Nintendo hasn't even been pushing it in the marketing department lately.

Edit: Sorry, meant to reply to OP to reference Shnazzyone's comment below.:(

BattleAxe943d ago

Nintendo stupidity coming from Nintendo fans has gotten way way out of control. It's almost like saying that the color red is actually the color blue, this is how ridiculous things have gotten with these people.

+ Show (3) more repliesLast reply 943d ago
Thatguy-310944d ago

Nintendo sold that much at launch because of the core fan base. The fans are the ones that go nuts at launch. The fact that the console hasn't sold much ever since just goes to show they won't do all the great this holiday when the fanbase from sony/Microsoft will go all out

mcstorm944d ago

I think it will be interesting to see how well the Xbox one and pa4 sell for the 1st few months as I only know a few people who have one pre ordered as they are getting there 3rd party fix still on there current console. The 2 people I know who have pre ordered the one are getting it for Forza and the one I know who is getting a ps4 has it on pre order for kz.

I don't know anyone who is looking at picking up a wiiu but that said with the price drop games like pikmin, Lego city, Mario 3d, sonic lost worlds, wiiu fit etc all out the last few months of the year the wiiu has a impressive line up for a great price they just need to do what they did with the 3ds and market the hell out of it over the next few months.

Can it out sell the one and ps4 I don't see why it can't but there is a lot of work to be done if they have any chance of doing this.

Shnazzyone944d ago

I could forsee wii U still holding the lead in total next gen consoles sold for a while potentially well past the holiday season. Being the winner of the christmas sales however, I don't forsee. Only convievable way is if somehow the sales between xbone and ps4 is very divided and nintendo does a smidge better with a mario game to prop it up.

However i'm unsure it could keep the total market systems number all through the system cycle. My guess is wii u will be number 2. Maybe lose the lead at the end of the console cycle.

GordonKnight943d ago

Casual gamers are about 75% of the market. This is the reason Nintendo will sale more consoles this holiday. The biggest factor is the number of games Nintendo will have this holiday season.

Don't get me wrong the PS4 & XBONE will sale great at lauch, but after that they will look like the Wii U due to small selection of games. This is when the Wii U is going to sale great. I'm just glad I have a Wii U already. I'll enjoying great Nintendo games after I've played the PS4 & XBONE launch titles. Good luck hating a great system with great games so called Hardcoregamers.

_QQ_943d ago

I'm not hating it, i own a Wiiu and love it, but i'm just being real, It will do well this holiday but not as well as ps4/xboxone.

+ Show (2) more repliesLast reply 943d ago
king_george944d ago

im a fan of nintendo but yeah.... ur comment pretty much summed up my thoughts.

black0o944d ago

dude no one hates nintendo ♥ .. i own Wii and i'll get Wii U if got extra money

Studio-YaMi944d ago

New 3D Mario is going to be awesome to play,I really love 3D Mario games.

You should get a WiiU later if you haven't already,wait for the WiiU exclusive library to wide up though,3D Mario is a must buy(for me at least!).

king_george944d ago

wait what? I didnt say you hated nintendo. I was agreeing with u black0o

iamnsuperman944d ago

A prediction should come with a reasonable evidence and the only one here is the lower price argument. I feel Nintendo is expecting a low unit sale this Christmas (evident by no major software release this Christmas and all the big ones seemed to be pushed into a 2014 release)

Look I think it is naive to think Nintendo's Wii U will have a good Christmas considering two major systems are launching. It doesn't matter what Nintendo does because those two system will get the attention no matter what (which is a why it is a good thing for Nintendo not to try and push this Christmas. I think they should have been doing the push these last few months, even from January, but it's too late for that now). They need to concentrate on 2014

rainslacker944d ago

From everything I've seen Nintendo seems to care more about the 3DS than the Wii U. They have been pushing it hard. This year we saw a remodel, as well as a 2DS line which is significantly cheaper. Big games like Fire Emblem and Pokemon, and a Zelda coming out soon....all in time for the holidays. The number of exclusive Nintendo titles on the 3DS is quite impressive actually.

R00bot943d ago

Nintendo always cares more about the handhelds than the consoles. That's just how it is I guess, and they are king at handheld gaming.

OrangePowerz944d ago

PS4 and Xbone will sell out this holiday season I can`t see how Nintendo would be able to compete with that for the Wii U especially without any huge top tier game.

OrangePowerz944d ago

i`m sure it will be a fun game, but launchin in the US on the same day as the Xbone and a week after the PS4 and in Europe on the same day as the PS4 means it will go under in the media. I will pick it up, but it`s not a system seller. I talk about something like a full new Zelda game or a full new 3D Mario game.

Studio-YaMi944d ago (Edited 944d ago )

It will surely move hardware and software sales for the WiiU,don't think it will outsell the PS4 or XboxOne though since it's their LAUNCH and already sold out.

Not to mention that the XboxOne has a great launch line-up with the PS4 right behind it with a good launch as well(lacking exclusives atm but still has major third party games coming for it & the exclusives are just around the corner for the first Q of 2014).

So,a short answer would be .. no!

TechMech2944d ago

I don't think that's on many people's biggest game of 2013 list. 3d land was terrible in my opinion

N4g_null944d ago

Add wii sports club and wii fit u with a sprinkle of wii u party. I know ill be trying out club and ill finally be getting wii fit with the u version. Gots to get fit for the new health care policy lol.

Also 3d mario spurred the 3ds come back and I doubted that until I played it. Im so looking to play thur that game with the other 3d mario players in my house. Plus we maybe getting a wiiu for the suv so im looking at the bundles.

killzone has never been a system seller... the racing games do ok but I dont see a project cars killer yet... if those screens are to be believed then the wiiu wins just off style and being way way cheaper.... with rentable games starting to appear.

then we all wait for the next gta 5 event on current gen which does not effect nintendo s line up but sonys very much. Another thing is the power is going to fad and the paying for online is going to be a monkey on your shoulder no matter how cheap it is if you are not getting what you want to play.

plus mk8, x, smash are on the horizon.... black friday is the ultimate day to preparefor those games on the cheap. Then we all can wait to see if the ps4 is all it is cracked up to be.

you have to understand gamers only buy if their type of game is being supported...I only got a ps3 for god... bayo2 puts that ffuture purchase at jeopardy.... im in cali today and I would like santa monica to show something.

The 10th Rider944d ago

Why does everyone downplay Super Mario 3D World? I admit that I was disappointed when they announced it, but the more they show the better it looks. Not to mention the last two home console 3D Mario games are two of the highest rated games out there. I'm still skeptical and not expecting it to be Super Mario Galaxy (or even Super Mario Sunshine) awesome, but at the same time I realize it can't be counted out.

slivery943d ago (Edited 943d ago )

How many games are you going to list before you realize these games are not moving that many systems?

You said that about Pikmin 3, you said that about Wind Waker, you said that about Wonderful 101 and didn't you even say that about Sonic, now you expect this new 3D Mario game to? Definitely is not the 3D Mario anyone really wanted is going to sell Wii U's?

I don't think it will be like NSMBU and the problem is even though that game got the second best sales out of all Wii U games, second to Nintendo Land.. It still did not move that many systems, so why would this new Mario?

I don't expect this new bundle to sell at all either really, it might sell a bit more for the holidays sure but it won't be great by any means, as everyone will want this new Mario instead. Kind of weird to me they would release a bundle after these games have been out for some good time now.

Usually when you want a bundle to sell, you package it with new games, not old ones.

Why didn't they just make a bundle for Super Mario 3D world instead? That would have made a lot more sense to me it would help sell more Wii U's this holiday. That is a really dumb decision on Nintendo's part to package a new bundle with old Mario games, really dumb actually. I don't understand where they come up with these bad ideas especially when the Wii U's sales are hurting so badly.

Also anyone who thinks the Wii U is going to outsell the PS4 and Xbox One even me being a supporter of the Wii U I will say that is beyond wishful thinking.

Have you people not be paying attention to anything lately? All the people asked constantly about what systems they will be getting and notice how barely anyone or no one at all even mentions the Wii U. Whether you choose to accept that, it is not a good sign and based on that I highly doubt the Wii U will even do that great this holiday. Not saying it won't sell some more units as probably every handheld and console will get a boost this holiday but I still cannot ignore the obvious lack of interest that many people have with the Wii U. Tons of people still don't even know what it is, that is just crazy.

I don't see how anyone with all that has been happening with the Wii U sees it recovering that fast.

I think games like Mario Kart, Smash Bro's and X will be a real testament to how well this thing is going to do, if games like that cannot move more systems then damn I don't know what will really. Guess we could wait until there is some news about this new Zelda game whenever that is supposed to release.

As said I don't think the Wii U will be beating the PS4 or Xbox One for that matter for a good while.

Even on tons of websites, they are giving away PS4's and Xbox One's in contests but again is the Wii U even apart of all this madness, nope.

Even major retailers are just advertising the PS4 and Xbox One again leaving the Wii U to sit on the back burner.

DejectedJeff943d ago

@slivery
No one said Pikmin 3 would sell systems, it sold way more hardware than anyone expected. Its a niche title and a sequel to a meh selling gamecube game. Also no one said the wonderful 101 would sell systems, no one smart anyway. Its a niche title made by a developer notorious for poor selling games (platinum). Sonic is an exception, because we thought that would actually be a decent game when reviews are looking bad. Either way its not even out in the US so no way to gauge how much of a system seller it is. You ignore the sales acheived with the release of the windwaker bundle.
Mario kart, 3D mario, donkey kong, X (in japan), and smash bros are system sellers, that combined with the already released software will push sales.

+ Show (4) more repliesLast reply 943d ago
Donnyskillz943d ago

your right pissy4 and xbox one will sell out this holiday season

Godoftheweek944d ago

The author must live on Bull#hit mountain.

TripC50944d ago

It's actually pretty nice there this time of year.

TheFutureIsBlue944d ago

Right beside Horse#hit hotel.