Last year around this time Forrester Research predicted that Blu-ray would triumph over HD-DVD. They reiterated that opinion (paid access only) on Thursday, noting that Blu-ray will win because it's got:
* Greater manufacturing support
* More movie titles
* A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)
* Greater storage capacity (making it more useful in the long run)
Still, Forrester's calling BRD's ultimate triumph a pyrrhic victory because the war between BRD and HD-DVD "will significantly slow down adoption of standalone players." Furthermore Forrester's analysts believe that "neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will flourish until consumers think they see a winner."
Forrester doesn't acknowledge the elephant in the room: If it takes too long for a "clear winner" to emerge, alternate delivery formats (such as digital distribution) may leapfrog both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.