This is the Playeressence Vidcast where every week Furious Francis and Hero the Impaler discuss the hottest gaming news for the week, CES 2013, favorite cartoons that should be made into video games, and ……the Philips CD-i.
I don't dissagree that the nVidia Shield is likely to be the so-called "console" that won't last out of the five consoles that will be out within the next year and a half, but I think that you are wrong regarding the WiiU. I think that the majority of the WiiU consoles that are selling like hotcakes right now are being bought by hardcore Nintendo fans, and surely when they release a Zelda game, that will keep Nintendo going for a while longer. But the main problem that I see is the under-powered hardware (as far as next gen consoles go), and the fact that the PS4 and the Xbox 720 will be releasing sometime around the next holiday season (or so the industry analysts seems to think). The Wii was popular because it was cheap, and because it was attractive to casual gamers. I don't believe that casual gamers are going to fork out money for a new console when they probably only break out their Wii when they have gatherings in their homes with their friends and family. Casual gamers are not the kinds of consumers who are always looking for the next major leap in technology, or even the newest versions of a product that they might have bought 2 or 3 years ago. The casual gamer will stick with their Wii that they purchased until it breaks, because they don't follow game franchises like you or I do, they could care less about the latest Mario or Zelda game. Casuals pushed the Wii to its success this generation, but things have changed since 2006/2007 when the Wii was super popular. Smart Phones, Tablets and Facebook have become havens for casual gamers who will probably not see the point to buying a new console when they already have a Smart Phone, Facebook account or an old Wii that they can play some games on. My opinion of the WiiU is that it will be relevant up until the much hyped PS4 and Xbox 720 get released. Its possible that even the announcements from E3 regarding the imminent release of Sony's and Microsoft's consoles will heavily dilute any excitement that might be left for the WiiU. I predict a future for Nintendo that is not far from what happened to Sega, except I think they will continue to be very popular in the handheld market with the 3DS/3DSxl. I love Steam, and I think they are a bit of a wild card, so in all honesty I'm not too sure what kind of an impact the "steam Box" will have on the console industry. But Francis, like you said, if Valve releases Half Life 3 or Left 4 Dead 3 as Steam exclusives, then Valve will sell a hell of alot of Steam Boxes.
The wiiu will be fine. I think nintendo will announce great games like smash bros and Mario kart that will attract core and casuals. WiiFit U will be a big game as well. The wiiu is already selling better than the ps3 and 360 were in the same time frame.
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