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Kotaku: Analyzing the Analysts, Episode One

We've all seen their work. "Analysts predict PS3 price drop by September." "New DS to be released by Nintendo." "Wii will be the top selling console of 2007." Analysts seem to descend from their mountaintops once a month to tell us the future of the video game industry. So what secret rituals do these soothsayers conduct to get their predictions? And, more importantly, how often are these predictions right?

After a look at ten analysts, 100 predictions, and first hand accounts from video game industry analysts Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of The simExchange, and founder of The simExchange Brian Shiau, Kotaku managed to gain a little bit of insight into the murky crystal ball used to prognosticate and pontificate.

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hotshot1273257d ago (Edited 3257d ago )

michael patcher is the only analysts that actually says things that will make you think something alittle different.

i've made better predictions then these analysts on thier best days.

i've said things like i think that sony will add bc to the 40 after the holidays of 08 once sony stops slowly supporting ps2.

i predict that microsoft WONT release a add on because it wouldnt do any good because it would be priced around the same price as the ps3 AND it has the potential to bring 17million 360 owners to buy a ps3. .

i predict that killzone 2 may slip into 09 because resistance 2 has sony covered. and killzone 2 will need more work.

i predict that sony will outsell the 360 here in america for the rest of the year maybe only being outsold slieghtly at times. how? because bluray will drive sales AND games AND a price drop to 299.99 which will happen at the beggining of aprail. think about it, MOVIES WILL BE SYSTEM SELLERS FOR THE PS3.

i predict microsoft will LOWER the cost(not make it free) of xbox live once sony gets in game xmb and HOME.

i predict that by the holidays, sony will outsell the 360 in europe by over 250,000 a week (last november it was 120,000 a week) starting from november and it will outsell it will begin to sell in the hundred thousands in japan once the ps3 drops to 299.99 and mgs4 hits. in america, i expect the ps3 to be neck and neck in sales.

now lets see how many of my predictions come true.

and last but not least, i expect alot of bandwagon riders to jump on the ps3 and act as if they were never wrong about what they said about it and they will pretend that it was only for bluray (wait for the next npd after that it watch those GAME SOFTWARE ATTACHEMENTS GO UP.LOL)

GlossGreen3257d ago

I know all there is about prognostication. Now how do I use it to get a new career. Something that pays a lot for not a lot of work, guess work at that.