Submitted by Dailynch 798d ago | news

Wii U To Sell 7 Million, Won't Replicate Wii Success - Pachter

NowGamer: Nintendo's Wii U will see an initial uptake surge, but will stuggle to maintain it, according to industry analyst Michael Pachter. (Michael Pachter, Tag Invalid, Wii, Wii U)

Masane   798d ago | Spam
GribbleGrunger  +   798d ago
If it has a ten year lifecycle (and it probably will) I can see no reason why it can't do 'better' than the Wii.
LX-General-Kaos  +   798d ago
I think once again it will come down to price. The price of the Nintendo Wii U entertainment system itself, and the price of future competition.

If Nintendo comes with a smart business strategy combined with some more good luck, they have a chance to come close to the sales of the original Nintendo Wii entertainment system lifetime sales. I just have a feeling that all competing brands will shoot for a super affordable price point this time around. Making it difficult for anyone to successfully reach the 100 million mark due to stiff competition.

I don't think anyone is willing to sell their platform at a loss and will try for day one profit on hardware. For some, selling at a loss from day one will do "massive damage" to their financial situation. Nintendo likely taught everyone a valuable lesson this generation, that affordability moves units. Everyone will likely apply that rule this time around and make competition very stiff.

Rated E For Everyone
#2.1 (Edited 798d ago ) | Agree(17) | Disagree(6) | Report | Reply
GribbleGrunger  +   798d ago
Of course you can see what will happen: Nintendo will release the Wiiu and sell like hot cakes at Christmas. Then when next year hits it will settle down because there will still be three choices and the other two choices will be cheaper... this will lead to the inevitable 'Nintendo are doomed' articles we're so used to seeing. But these articles will be as short-sighted as ever and won't factor in the big titles that will eventually come and the usual price drop.

This is why Patcher is wrong and the articles will be wrong, just as they were with the 3DS
#2.1.1 (Edited 798d ago ) | Agree(8) | Disagree(6) | Report
r1sh12  +   798d ago
@LX-General-Kaos Could not have said it better my self. I think nintendo had a clear strategy from the day they released the wii.

They have a head start on sony and MS and they have applied a similar strategy again.
The prices are slightly higher than the xbox and PS3, and Im sure they will be bundling it with games for christmas, both Sony and Ms will suffer if Nintendo get this right
DK286K   798d ago | Spam
Kingdom Come  +   798d ago
Because only roughly 2-3 Years into the Wii U's lifecycle (If even that long) there will be much superior technology on the market. Seriously, the Wii U is Nintendo catching up (Quality-Wise) to its oppositions Current-Gen consoles, and for each improvement it makes on Current-Gen, it falls short through its faults (No cross game chat etc.).

The Wii U will be completely reliant on the casual market after the Xbox 720 and PS4's release, and whilst thats suited them fine with the Wii, Microsoft and Sony have seriously hijacked a number of Nintendo's customers through the development of Kinect and Move.
WiiUalpha  +   798d ago
"Because only roughly 2-3 Years into the Wii U's lifecycle (If even that long) there will be much superior technology "

You can stop giving your opinion on tech because its painfully obvious from that part that you have no understanding of how it works... You'd have to be a real idiot and completely clueless to think in 2 years time sometime "much superior" which should be "far superior" but you cant comprehend tech so no reason to expect English to be any different for you.

Where in the future do you come from to know things that havent even been announced? Nintendo never said you couldnt do cross game chat so where did you pull that bit out from other than your backside?

Yes kid Sony is losing millions but they are going to launch a top of the lime console just for you. Sure they don't care about money or making a living, just giving some delusional fanboy with no clue all his hopes and dreams.
ninjabake  +   798d ago
You should play my lotto numbers since you have the crystal ball
jmc8888  +   797d ago
Yeah, it won't be 'much superior'. That's the thing with 'next gen consoles'....neither Sony or Microsoft are going to be putting out 'next gen consoles'.

Wii U, 720, PS4 are all going to be 'this generation part 2' or 'this generation fully realize'.

None of them will have the raw power that is currently possible in a PC gaming rig, and these consoles won't be out for 1-2 1/2 years. We may get one next year, and one the year after. Maybe one in spring 2014 and the next one in fall 2014. Hard to say. Either way it won't have the raw power of a 2010 PC. It should be equal to 2010-2012 PC tech due to design advantages, but by then there will be a couple years better PC tech then there is now.

Last time around consoles were 1-3 years ahead of PC's. This time they are going to be 2-3 years behind PC's. That's a pretty big swing.

With all that said, even 2014 PC tech, think GTX 890, won't be next gen. It'll be getting there, but it shouldn't be 'next gen'.

The Wii U will obviously be the weakest of the three, and by a decent margin. But it won't be a huge difference. Wii U was severely weaker then 360/PS3, wasn't hd, didn't have much 3rd party support, didn't have a good online service, AND lacked a pro controller that among other things lacked proper camera control.

These things won't be the case. The Wii U WILL be HD. It has ALL of the things the ps4/720 will have, and in one way more with the gamepad screen. We just don't know about the online yet. That's really the only question mark.

Think of it this way. When you buy a Wii U, you'll be able to play 2011-12 version PC games with high textures and maybe some aspect of DX11 features. With PS4/720 you'll be able to play 2011-12 version PC games with ultra textures and definitely DX11 type features.

That's your 'much superior technology'. The ability to have a notch, maybe notch and half better textures and definitely having DX11 features compared to maybe or some of them on the Wii U.

That's really not much difference. So RAM, the ability to use that RAM, and DX11. That's it. (plus definite 3rd party support for the life, but I'm think the Wii U has already shown it's going to have it too)

Also with Microsoft, there are a couple of things that tend to lead one to think this early it's more assured this will be the case.

Microsoft doesn't want to push the boundaries because they want a RELIABLE product. Pushing the boundaries tech wise was one of the major reasons that there was a RROD and subsequently a ONE BILLION dollar fund set aside just to fix these things.

Microsoft also wants to keep the price of the unit low. They don't want to PS3 it on price. People forget that the value of the dollar against gold has dropped about 60-70 percent since the 360 launched. Meaning if they wanted to push it like they did last time, the console would probably cost 700-800 dollars. Not 350-500.

Couple all of that with the decision that they are going to pact a Kinect 2 in with every 720, with perhaps the Kinect 2 working in tandem with the hand thingy they recently showed off (highly likely imo....just like PS EYE with the move wand), and that right there will be 100 dollars worth of tech in the system.

So if you're trying for a 350-500 dollar launch, then you subtract the Kinect 2 costs and you're talking about a console that could have been sold without the Kinect for 250-400 dollars. That right there is not going to be a beast.
skyward  +   798d ago
Christmas will be good to Nintendo, but there's no compelling reason for the masses to get involved just yet
ninjabake  +   798d ago
Speak for yourself. There are a plethora of reasons for the masses to get involved right now. Whether they will or not is to be determined.
gamingGod123   798d ago | Spam
DivineAssault  +   798d ago
It will be ok i think.. Definately not as hot as the wii was but its a capable console... No one knows what the next PS/MS consoles will be like.. A quantum leap like 3rd party devs are hinting at, or just a bit more powerful than wii u balancing their investments into motion or whatever other type of gameplay aspect..

The wii u system itself isnt too expensive.. Considering that gamepad is roughly 1/2 of what your paying for.. It will all depend on software & network if they wish to appeal to ppl other than fans.. Theyre on the right track to me but need more support if im to buy it.. I really have no interest in the gamepad other than docking it while using the pro controller.. But thats me, im sure others are very excited about using it to play their games..

About a million or so day 1 in each region i think then a decent steady pace.. But when games like smash bros or mario Universe comes around, it will boom again..
#5 (Edited 798d ago ) | Agree(0) | Disagree(1) | Report | Reply
MilkMan  +   798d ago
AJBACK2FRAG  +   797d ago
Lol! What you have to factor in to all of your equations is this people trust Nintendo. People trust Nintendo to release great entertainment for every member of their FAMILY. People trust Nintendo to sell them a reliable product. People trust Nintendo to provide great customer care when there is a problem with one of their products. People trust Nintendo. That's some thing you can't buy. That has nothing to do with horsepower, hd or even polygons. Nintendo's back on top kiddos. Maybe for good.
Samus HD  +   798d ago
aren't there another guy's with opinions other than patcher?!(in his field)
He missed many times and still gets the attention.. WT...
SUKISUKIDAISUKI   798d ago | Spam
etowntwo  +   798d ago
Can't wait to play AC3 on next gen WiiU.

And hopefully all the great multiplats I'm looking forward too like Far Cry 3, Aliens, Bioshock Infinite, etc etc

Until the next Xbox comes out. Then I'll just keep the WiiU around to finally play Nintendos exclusives in HD.
#9 (Edited 798d ago ) | Agree(6) | Disagree(3) | Report | Reply
TripC50  +   798d ago
Yes. That's exactly what I'm doing. I just sold my Wii and most of my games for in store credit at GameStop . Got up to 225 because I'm a member. Just got put on the waiting list for deluxe. My hope is for GTA V and great HD Nintendo exclusives; Mario, Zelda, Kirby, DK, Starfox, Metroid, ect..
ConstipatedGorilla  +   798d ago
Me too. I have the Wii U preordered along with AC3, Mario, Zombie U, and COD. When 720 comes out, I'll preorder that too. I'm going to try and just stick to those 2 consoles this time, because my PS3 rarely gets used other than for blu rays.
mcstorm  +   798d ago
I cant wait to get hold of the WiiU and I could not care less if it sells more than the wii or not. I just want Sony Nintendo and Microsoft all to do next gen as it keeps them all pushing each other and makes a better gaming world for us.
Optical_Matrix  +   798d ago
Now, while I think that the Wii U won't sell as few units at 7 Million, I do think Pachter is right in that it won't replicate the success of the Wii. The market has changed drastically in the last 6 years and the mainstream market that made up a large majority of the Wii's install base has moved onto the lastest mainstream craze, Smartphones/Tablets.

Having lost significant mindshare among your average gamer outside of the internet such as us who frequent the likes of N4G, Gametrailers, NeoGAF, the Wii U is a tough sell to the average gamer who plays a handful of games a year and has invested years into PSN or XBL.

In that capacity, this first year that Wii U has to itself on the market could very well dictate how much of a success it ends up being, because Sony and MS will no doubt collectively steal all the thunder Nintendo has when they drop the PS4/Nextbox bomb.

As I say, I think the Wii U can find some success, but nowhere near the success the Wii had. The markets just changed far too much, and Nintendo close minded approach to Online gaming and hardware is only going to damage their chances against the next generation of Sony and MS systems.

I'll buy my Wii U day one though, as it already has a large amount of games I can't wait to play.
ronin4life  +   798d ago
The market may have changed, but just because it changes once doesn't mean it can't be changed again.

Perhaps even greater change in the market awaits... that could be favorable to the wiiu overall.
WiiUalpha  +   798d ago
Opinions based off of opinions are meaningless. The market has changed? Really what scientific research was conducted to prove that point? None what so ever. You are just being a parrot and repeating what you heard someone else say without understanding what was actually being said or if it had any merit.

Okay the market has changed... So portables sell less than they did 5 years ago? No they still sell just as good. what about consoles? Well no they dont sell as well as they did when this gen started but that doesnt prove things have changed. It just shows that most peopl that want a console have one already.

Everything you posted is an opinion based off of opinions and it is meaningless. You have no proof Nintendo has lost mindshare beyond your own sishful thinking but you state it as fact.

PS4/Nextbox bomb. Another opinion based on nothing concrete but hopes and wishes.

I cant wait to see all the new accounts you kids make when PS4 comes out and isnt as powerful as you claim it would be.

Same thing happened after months of trashing the Wii remote as garbage, casual, and destroying gaming but when Move got announced we had a flood of new members and all the people claiming it was horrible were suddenly gone for the most part.

If you had anything to base your opinion off of that would be one thing but its all based off of what you believe or perceive to be true whether than what actually is true.
stuna1  +   798d ago
I get you like what the WII U has to offer you and that it will more than likely sell well, but what delusional world do you live in that says that thing haven't changed??

The world economy has changed as a whole! That's not someone's opinion, that's fact! Just because people go out and buy all these new fangled gadgetry and all doesn't mean they can afford them, and it definately doesn't mean the the economic balance isn't affected and there aren't damaging repercutions behind them.
WiiUalpha  +   794d ago
WE were not talking about the world economy. We were talking about the gaming market. AS I said where is your proof the gaming market has changed. Please do not bother responding though if you cannot comprehend what is being said. I am not trying to be rude but nowhere in my post did I mention or did he mention a "world economy".

The 3DS is outpacing the DS in sales so I am not sure how anyone can think the market(gaming market for those slow to follow) has changed all that much. What sold 7 years ago sales today.
Straightupbeastly  +   798d ago
It def wont sell as much as Wii, and it probably won't sell as much as ps3 and xbox360, but it will still sell well (my guess in the 35-40 mill range over the next 5 yrs) and become a profitable console for Nintendo with many great games.
TheLyonKing  +   798d ago
Thats a lot but the P-Man is right it wont be as successful as the wii.

I am buying mine after the Christmas rush etc but I can't wait to have a nintendo controller in my hand again (proper one)
Moncole  +   798d ago
Since he said that we know it will be a success.
wiiulee  +   798d ago
lol...sony and ms fanboys and stockholders sure are hoping the wiiu doesnt sell to well after what the wii did to their favorite systems...but haters will be in for a shock when wiiu sells even more
BitbyDeath  +   798d ago
Your no better with comments like that.
Wii U will do fine, people are starved for new tech right now so this will satisfy a lot of peoples wants.
stuna1  +   798d ago
Agreed BitbyDeath on all accounts!

People need to realise constructive criticism doesn't = fanboy!!!
AJBACK2FRAG  +   797d ago
Bingo! I've got bingo!
zalanis  +   798d ago
lol im not sure how or why articles refer to this boob job as an analyst. the guy has been wrong about nintendo all his life. surprised ninty doesnt sue him for harassment. freakin hater, has the best job though, if after being wrong so much, he still getting paid. nice one patcher.
(gotta give credit were its due, even if it isnt in his analysis.) freakin best job. thats it now im choked. wish i had his job.
Crillvirus81  +   798d ago
People keep forgeting how awesome it is to swich your game over from the screen to the tablet that right there is goings make it sell millions every Time i show one of my friends or co workers they go crazy over that fact alone
megamanX2  +   798d ago
fuck off pacter.
modesign  +   797d ago
the wiiu better hope to sell 20million its first year, when sony and micro roll out there new consoles, the wiiu will turn into a chick that has every STD on the planet, no one will even look at it.
AJBACK2FRAG  +   797d ago
That'll probably be right about the time Zelda hd comes out so... there will probably be a "couple" of people looking.
Sugreev2001  +   797d ago
Well,there is some bad press leading up to the launch of Wii U...not to mention that Wii hasn't exactly endeared anyone other than Nintendo fans.Anyway,we cannot know anything for sure,just like none could predict Wii being such a smashing success in the first place.
black911  +   796d ago
PS3 Only Problem was its price whice gave Microsoft and Nintendo more stomping ground. But even with a $600 console they manged to sell nearly 70million. Just imagine next gen.

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