Rumors are coming at a faster clip as we approach the inevitable release of next-gen consoles, and an analyst has added his post-CES predictions to the heap. They include potential price points, release windows, and a surprisingly grim outlook for Nintendo.
Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Baird Equity Research, says he's based these predictions on conversations with developers and distributors.
Sebastian says he expects that Sony and Microsoft will unveil their new hardware shortly before E3, which he predicts will be the biggest show since 2000.
Baird Equity Research's Colin Sebastian says demand strong for next-gen consoles with PS5 selling at a slightly higher premium on auction sites.
Both sold a million in their first week this gen, so I can't imagine it'd be any different this time around consider there's been way more hype, I feel.
Both will sell as many units as they can produce, that's the real number, whatever they can produce, that's how much they will sell.
Some forget that both sold very, very well in the first months. The question isnt the first 3 months...
PS5 is fully pre-booked everywhere.
Sony will sell all the unites they are available to ship.
Baird and Co analyst Colin Sebastian believes PlayStation 4 to have an edge over Xbox One in the US, despite the supply constraints.
Outselling the X1 in MS's own territory, despite having supply issues. Pretty damn impressive.
1 million consoles in 24 hours in NA, i still can't wrap my head around that.
Replies(26)Well considering that PS4 is 25% cheaper than Xbox One, it should of sold 25% more in the US, if not then Playstation is behind in the US and expect Xbox One to continue to lead in that region
"Well considering that PS4 is 25% cheaper than Xbox One, it should of sold 25% more in the US, if not then Playstation is behind in the US "
That is quite possibly the worst logic i have ever witnessed. Congrats.
@chillbro
shhhhh!
You are making too much sense. It stands to reason that a cheaper product will sell more. It's simple and makes perfect sense, really. Unless you're a ps4 fanboy.
Ps4 Fanboy meltdown incoming.
edit: oops too late.
I don't know what makes my head hurt more, the first comment about the 25% logic or the "you are making too much sense" one
Lol I love reading comments on here from all the fan boys makes me lol. I remember when the PS3 sales were low and all the PS fan boys kept saying was when the price drops it will walk all over the 360, Then it was when the games come. Now its the PS4 is the better console and costs less.
Fan boys need to just face it and see both are selling well. I expected the PS4 to sell more than the Xbox one over the 1st 3 months or so because of the price difference and it is also out in more countries too. But I expect the sales of the xbox one to pickup when games like Titan Fall and Halo come.
The one I did not expect to not sell that well was the WiiU. I am glad to see the Wiiu sales are picking up and I hope all 3 have a good gen as its better for the industry.
@lolCHILLbro
"Well considering that PS4 is 25% cheaper than Xbox One, it should of sold 25% more in the US"
That makes no sense.
@fanboybeatdown
"You are making too much sense."
The fact that you came out to protect that logic makes me think that you and lolCHILLbro could be one person or you two haven't hit high school yet with that flawed understanding of numbers.
@mcstorm
"I expected the PS4 to sell more than the Xbox one over the 1st 3 months"
There's a reason why PS4 sales have slowed down a lot currently, it's due to stock problems because of intial high demand. I doubt the Xbox One will ever surpass the PS4; price, power, better listening to feedback, more 1st party exclusives...all those factor into it and Sony are experts with what they do for their consumers. But the Xbox One is doing really good after the disaster in May, I'll give it that.
@fanboybeatdown
The ps3 was $200 more than the 360 and it outsold it monthly since launch...
IT sounds like some of the hardcore ps4 fans need some help with their logical fallacies.
1. The statement makes perfect sense.
If something costs more, less people will buy it.
If something costs less, more people will buy it.
IT holds true for comparable goods. That's why the statement makes sense for the XBO and PS4.
This is precisely why the ps2 sales took off once the $199 price point was reached.
2. The Wiiu is not a comparable good, as the specs, user demographic and implementation are greatly differentiated from the ps4 and xbo.
That's the reason why the WiiU is selling less despite being cheaper than the XBO and PS4
Simply put, the WiiU cannot be compared to the XBO and PS4, because it's not even in the same league.
Let's face it guys.
We all know you want the PS4 to be the champion and you want it to be selling well and you don't want the price to be a factor in this. Everyone can see that you are emotionally invested in the sales numbers.
But the fact remains that the PS4 is $100 cheaper than the comparable XBO. That means at least SOME of the PS4 big sales numbers are derived from the fact it is MUCH cheaper than its nearest comparable competitor.
It is also definitely true that the PS4 enjoys a price advantage over the XBO in North America. I would fully expect the PS4 to do much better in sales against a comparable product that is more expensive. It really should have smashed the XBO in sales in North America. The fact that it did not, does speak volumes and that's what the OP correctly pointed out.
I'd like to invite the naysayers to stop and think before posting again.
I have to say I am really disappointed at the lack of insight in the N4g community, at this point.
Oh my dam, why the hell do you sony fans keep acting like sony 24 hour 1 million is so much more impressive then Microsoft's when it's not? A million sold is a million million sold But, lets use your logic. according to you and every other Sony fan boy sony million is more impressive because it's north america only right? Well then if that's the case, Microsoft week to week sales are far more impressive then Sony's considering sony is in 30 plus countries compared to Microsoft measly 13. Now that's according to your logic So there are no is and or buts about it right.
Selling 1 million in just the North America continent in 24 hours versus selling 1 million in 13 countries which also includes North America in 24 hours...
...Which one is more impressive? If you said the first one then your answer is correct and that's the PS4. There's a reason why Xbox One's week by week sales are more "impressive" because Sony burned through their whole PS4 North America and Europe stock faster than Microsoft. So as the PS4 was outsold most of the time in the more populated places, the Xbox One was still selling, bit by bit with their intial stock. (There's photos and videos of 1st day editions still currently available.) And Sony hasn't released in all 32 countries yet, there's stock still reserved for the rest which will add more to the total number. That logic, I know. :)
Kryptix,
Retailers buy consoles from the manufacturers. You can easily sell 1 million units as a manufacturer and see them on store shelves since the retailers are merely the first party to buy them.
As for which million being the more impressive, as long as neither company fulfilled all their demand with the first million consoles sold, it has the same effect.
1 million in 24hrs in only 1 country or 1 million sold in 24hrs in 13 countries. Which is more impressive ? The first right. Just face it Xbone 720p fanboy PlayStation Nation is back on top like it always has been.
Let's see if I can explain it with grade school logic.
There are 2 booths. One sells Lemonade for $.40 cents a cup and the other sells Lemonade for $.50 cents a cup.
Booth 1 is Playstation. Booth 2 is Xbox One.
On the first day, Booth 1 only sold to 1 person, but that 1 person bought a million cups of lemonade.
On its first day, Booth 2 sold to 13 people. Those 13 people each bought 76923 cups, on average, of lemonade over a period of 9 days to make a total of 1 million.
Booth 1, it seems, wasn't prepared for so much demand for their lemonade, so when they tried to sell to 29 more people they didn't have enough but are picking their lemons now to sell to a new person.
Booth 2 had a steady supply of lemons with which to make more lemonade, but few of those 13 people came back for more lemonade.
Each of those 13 people saw that one person buying 1 million cups on the first day. Each of those 13 people are waiting for their chance to buy the lemonade from booth 1 to see how it could be so good that someone bought 1 million cups of it on the first day, but the same can't be said for that 1 person who bought the lemonade from Booth 1.
Do you get it now, or does it need further dumbing down?
@Death: Lol, are you seriously arguing sell in vs. sell through? "It's not impressive when you find out they sold 1 million to retailers." Bud, have you been able to find a PS4 anywhere? No? Then guess what, all those sold to retailers sold to consumers too.
I understand some ppl taking it overboard but it is very impressive just like if Xbox one come out in Japan and sell 1 mil in 24 hours ppl should be equally impressed. Now let me ask a question to you why is it when MS sale good it is ok for you guys to be happy for MS but when Sony sell well or do anything good ppl like you feel the need to talk about the ppl that are happy for Sony. I understand when some ppl are talking like take that MS that stuff is not needed but for the most part ppl just saying job well done what is wrong with that did you have a problem when 360 outsold the PS4 where were you at to talk about the Xbox fans guess what if PS4 sell well it is good for gamers if Xbox sell well it is good for gamers why all the hate on both sides.
Grade school logic?
Each company had 1 million units to sell. Microsoft shipped units to multiple countries while Sony focused on North America. Both sold thru their initial stock in 24 hours. Had this initial supply satisfied demand, then it would be impressive that Sony did it in one continent alone. Since both companies are still shipping to multiple territories demand is still strong and unsatisfied. It doesn't matter where they sold their first 1 million since they are still selling.
Is it harder to find a PS4? Yes, it's a hell of an assumption to say that is based soley on higher demand since Sony is shipping to more countries then Microsoft. Using your grade school logic, why wouldn't it be harder to find a PS4 since they are spreading them thinner than Microsoft?
Now that the holiday shopping frenzy is over it will be impressive to see how many of each sold. With most people's holiday budget blown, we will see a more realistic picture of demand.
@Death: First Paragraph - Sure, each had a million to sell, but it's easy to see which is in more demand when, in one territory, the PS4 blasted through that amount in one day. Goal post movers can argue "bu bu but the Xbox One still sold through it's 1 million" and they'd technically be correct, however it took 13 locations and 9 days to get to that number. This tells us that the Xbox One's demand is, comparatively, lower than the PS4s. In terms of sheer numbers, it's a success for both. In terms of mind/market share, Sony is ahead and looks to be staying ahead for quite some time.
Second Paragraph - It's not an assumption, it's fact. Everywhere the PS4 launches it sells out immediately. Sony can't keep up with the demand for its console, that's why stock is so low and units are hard to find to the point of being pretty much impossible. We're talking about 30 countries here. That's more than twice the locations of Microsoft and the PS4 sells out in each one of them every chance stock is replenished. But in each of the 13 countries the Xbox One is in, you can find units on the shelves. One could argue that MS is good at keeping up with replenishing stock, or it could be the far more likely fact that demand for the Xbox One just isn't what you want it to be.
Final Paragraph - You can't honestly believe the Xbox One stands a chance, demand wise, against the PS4. You don't need to wait for sales figures after the holiday rush to know that that's just wishful thinking. All you need to do is follow the news of which countries each console launches in and see the rate at which units disappear and you see a big fat "SOLD OUT" sign on websites and in stores.
You need to face facts. The PS4 is in greater demand than the Xbox One and for good reason.
Not only do people choose to forget that, they also choose to forget Sony sold 150+ million PS2's to the XBox's 24 million. I find it impressive when PS fans beat their chest to the PS3 finally selling a couple thousand units more than the 360 globally. Now they cheer because Sony has overtaken Microsoft's stronghold in initial sales. It's like watching the Patriots take on the local grade school's pee wee football team with fans cheering the Patriots on for good game play against such stiff competitors.
Good job guys.
Did you forget that the original Xbox was a new console and couldn't stand a chance against the Playstation brand which was already well established? It wasn't like a Nintendo vs. Sony situation where the reason Sony won the PS1/N64 gen was due to devs wanting to support the CD format for their games. The PS2 and the Xbox were very similar with the only real differences being an HDD and Live for the Xbox.
All the games were on the PS2 because it was an established brand and offered the developers something they really wanted and needed with the DVD format.
The 360 only captured the US because of its head start and cheaper price.
To put it in Death's flawed logic, the 360 was like an Olympic level, Kenyan runner given a head start against a veteran white guy still loving his previous gold medal and thinking he could afford to go a slower pace at first.
A year head start may not mean much in the end in terms of numbers, but it means a lot in terms of overall developer support throughout a gen.
DK,
The WiiU has been out for a year now and has a cheaper price. By your logic, it will beat the Xbox One and PS4 in sales also. The Xbox 360 sold 10 million units in the year the PS3 was delayed. To go from 24 million to over 80 million units with a 10 million lead doesn't sound realistic. The PS3 has a higher price for a little over a year before we seen the $399 40 gig.
The reason the 360 made 80 million in sales is the same as why the PS3 made 80 million. People bought 80 million of them.
The PS4 is $100 less than the Xbox One. So far both are pretty close in sales. Even in it's first year, the PS3 and Xbox 360 were pretty close in sales. Your assumption can't be validated with facts. You want to believe it was the cheaper launch price and year headstart that helped the Xbox 360 gain marketshare. Unfortunately that's an excuse, not a fact.
As for the Kenyan vs. White guy comparison...wow.
As for your above comment about facing facts, The PS4 is in fact in higher demand. The games so far are not why. I don't have one because I don't see a game worth buying the system for. The hardcore early adopters are buying a system for the games that are coming. I'm not as impressed by the difference in visual quality of the launch games to think the PS4 is the better system. So far it's more graphically capable, but that is all it does. I'm not alone in wanting to see what the Xbox One can do that the PS4 can't. If you want to face facts, start by trying to understand that there are people out there that have a different opinion then yours on what makes a console worth buying.
PlayStation dominated the US with the PS2.
I highly doubt Microsoft could have achieved that much initially if it weren't for the RROD. Buying several times the console made it seem like there were more users.
It will be a good fight and exclusives will be very important for those who will sell more.
That's an interesting statement by this analyst.
If Sony did 1 million in 24 hours just in the US, and MS did 1million worldwide in 24 hours - then it's a safe to say that Sony would be quite a long way ahead in the US at that point
So if the lead in the US is now only small, that would mean the X1 has been outselling the PS4 ever since those initial figures were announced.
We know the PS4 is supply constrained - but is it really constrained to the point where MS has been able to sell significantly more X1's and catch up the gap?
This news, if true, could be considered in a couple of ways... One. If MS are NOT supply constrained (or less constrained) and still haven't overtaken the PS4 then how much demand is there really out there for X1's? Two. If the PS4 was not constrained then what sort of numbers would it really be doing? Three. Are Sony potentially losing sales because people don't want to wait for a PS4, so are buying the more readily available X1?
Interesting times, but bring on the games - we can play 'sales' later!
The PS4 is supply constrained and also available in more territories - meaning they have to ship what inventory they have to more places. That has allowed MS to close the gap.
Once both consoles are available in all their territories, we'll see how sales go. Until then you can't really judge success/failure on these early figures.
Yeah, I had the same thought.
It'll be interesting to see how long it takes before there's ample supply.
I recall it took around 10-12 weeks for the 360 to start meeting demand (although these figures were lower than the PS4 / XB1).
We're now 8 weeks past the launch of the PS4, with little sign of demand slowing, and the Japan launch looming.
Sorry but an analyst who bases his guess on Ebay premium price sales is as credible as having a tarot reading by phone.
Analysts should go by target figures for both companies : 5m sell-through end of March for Sony, and 6.2m XBO produced end of June for MS. Based on this, they can extrapolate how many consoles are manufactured monthly by each company and can estimate sell-through ratio combining first launch sales, demand and availability in actual STORES (not on Ebay or Craigslist).
First, launch sales indicated that Sony sold 1m PS4 in NA in 24h and went rapidly out of stock, while MS sold around 700K in the same region/time frame while hardly selling out.
We know for certain PS4 had more preorders (larger demand) and also more initial stock for launch than XBO for NA : 2.1m PS4 manufactured and shipped with probably 1.2m directed to NA launch, while MS had 1.55m XBO World wide, with probably 950K allocated to NA only.
Now usually stores don't order products according to their availability but according to their sale-through expectation, so if you see plenty XBO in store is not because of MS ability to supply consoles, but more porbably because XBO is not selling as well as expected.
Logically, if XBO was selling as well or better than the PS4 while being lesser produced, then it should have gone out of stock much sooner and stayed constrained much longer than its competitor, but none of these scenarios have been widely observed.
I agree and as long as MS and Sony can meet demand they will meet there target sales so I do not see why ppl are arguing which sell more than the other if you are going to back a company like that you should be rooting for the company to reach it's targeted sales.
Clearly more than a few people bought Xbox One because PS4 was simply unavailable to them. I'm thinking mostly of families getting a Christmas present for their children, they wouldn't have thought of preordering so long ago as we hardcore gamers did, and they had no choice but to stick with what was available ot them.
I expected the gap to increase as supply constraints slowly fade.
Sony is showing us impressive moves this past months thanks to PS4, no doubt that it will be the next PS2
PS4 selling the same as the Xbone in USA is enough to seal victory for Sony considering Sony seems to be owning every other country in the world.
Anyone not decided yet on getting a next gen console yet should def pick up a PS4 for these simple reasons: Better hardware by a big margin (cant even pretend it isnt anymore now xbone fanboys) , better versions of multiplats (even if the game play is identical *which it isnt when fps is worse on xbone which damages gameplay* the the PS4 has the better visuals completely confirmed) , better exclusives (just an educated guess but if you look at metacritic the PS3 had the highest rated exclusive games compared to the 360 and the most exclusives, it is easy to see) and a better paid online service by far (see psn plus vs xbox live to see the truth), there really is no other choice.
History is tricky since every day that passes becomes the past. Sony today isn't the same company as they were in the past. We have seen Sony shutting down internal studios and restructuring others these past few years to try and resuce their losses. We can't assume Sony can do the same as they have in the past with less capital and less resources.
At the same time we have seen Sony close studios, we have seen Microsoft aquire more studios and invest more into first party exclusive content. Instead of shedding in house devs like they did at the begining of the 360's lifecycle, Microsoft is in a position to grow again.
How can we assume Sony will continue to keep up with their first party offering with less and Microsoft to offer less content while investing more? I won't pretend to know the future, but I can see the direction both companies are heading based on what they are doing. There is a reason Sony is light on content at launch and trumping indie support. They need to make some money so they can invest it into games. Microsoft has a bit of a headstart since we know they already invested 1 billion into new exclusive content in October. Now we will see how capable they are as that content starts to take shape.
Activision Blizzard became an independent company last night, after it bought back the majority of its shares held by former parent company Vivendi which now, only holds a 12% stake. This is, according to Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Colin Sebastian, a “win-win-win” for all parties involved – despite a decrease in WoW subs.
Hes not much of an analyst if he thinks that a console that will have High end PC components in it will sell for $350 - $400. A high end Core i5 is over 200 euro alone. If it was to have high end PC components then I would expect it to be over $600