Let’s project PS4 sales

Let’s go down memory lane and project PS4 worldwide lifetime units and games sales based on historic numbers. Factors like strong 3rd party & indie support, common platform architecture, competitors waning popularity, focus on games and 4K media support might drive PS4 units and games sales to near PS2 heights.

[joeyisback]

PS4 is going to sale like crazy i know one PS4 price is 399.99 and the 2nd is 449.99 i know people at sony who gave me price point cant wait till it comes out

[iGAM3R-VIII]

"i know people at sony who gave me price point cant wait till it comes out"

yea....sure there pal....you sure you don't do weed....

Anyway, this does seem like a good projected sale, it does back up its reason and seems to be like a good contestant. I could probably see it selling that many units

[T2]

Although I am skeptical of your source these prices do make sense

[Grap]

if they superpass ps3 sales i will call it major success. ps3 was a success despite it sold less than ps1 and 2.

[Clarence]

The PS3 is still selling in 3yrs it will most likely hit a 100m

[delboy]

I don't think ps4 or next box will sell even close to its predecessor.
Gaming is in a stagnation, every year we read about games selling lesser then year before that.
I know you think that the rest is sold through digital distribution, but it's not.
If that where the case, then we would not see so many companies and publishers closing.
And next generation will be even worse due the rise of production costs.

[iansannes]

looks like they pretty much pulled that prediction out of their a$$.

[THEDON82z1]

Right @iansannes this is the dumbest comparison because the simple fact is ps3 is not finished selling and is clearly on its way to 100million sold .On top of that it still has ATLEAST 3 MORE YEARS OF SUPPORT WITH GAMES.THEY NEED TO SHOVE THIS CHART RIGHT BACK IN THERE A$$!!!!LLLOOOOlllll!!!!

[Belking]

PS4 and next gen xbox will struggle at firt just like the wii-u did. People just don't have the disposable income to spend on these things anymore......Vita will continue to struggle too becasue the market has changed. Ipad and smart phones are killing off the vita.

[Hicken]

Based on what? The PS4 and 720 aren't likely to have the same identity issues the Wii U has. They're also likely to have better game support- more spread out, and a larger amount of third party releases- than the Wii U.

You talk about people not having disposable income to spend on consoles, but the more expensive and annually outdated and replaced smartphones and tablets are selling like hotcakes. These same things are, supposedly, "killing off the Vita," yet its sales are currently improving, and stand to do even better in the future.

[GenericNameHere]

You know why the Wii U did so poorly in the beginning (and still kinda is)? THEY CHANGED MARKETS!
NES-GC were all mainly all about games the typical male demographic would play. The Wii U then GREATLY departed from the norm, and was seen as the console for non-gamers. Even the controller play-style was completely different from past Nintendo controllers. Plus, it was the cheapest console at the time at $250, which was definitely a big factor in deciding which consoles to buy during the holidays. The Wii did have a LOT of excellent games (SSBB, Metroid Prime 3, LoZ:TP/SS, SMG1/2, DKCR, TvC, WiiWare games, the hundreds of Virtual Console games, etc), and even had a lot of JRPGs just last year, but it was a little too late. In fact, over 60% of Wii owners (statistics pulled out of my arse) have already abandoned their Wii shortly after Brawl, returned for a few days when SS released, and have never since touched it then.
Now lets look at the Wii U. Tablet controller, you can only use 1 controller (well, so far anyways), the other usable controllers are... the Wii U Gamepad (whatever it's called), which will not work for all games since there are games that need to use the bottom controller, and Wii controllers... which might have more advantage or disadvantages in fighting games or something. The cheapest model is $300, and the Deluxe model is $350 and only has a small amount of GBs (WAY LESS than the standard for Xbox 360 and PS3 standards nowadays). Plus, Nintendo suggests they're going back to the hardcore market, and somewhat lessening the amount of Wii-type games.

PS4 and Xbox 720 will definitely have troubles in the beginning like every console has, but at least they won't be changing their established markets.

[Dan_scruggs]

Next year is the year of the PS3 and the PS4. Just like the last 5 years.

[GreenRanger]

PS4, PS3, Xbox 720, Xbox 360, Wii U and PC will all be on the market at the same time.
I don't expect crazy sales of any of the next-gen consoles (including the Wii U) for at least a year after they launch.

[thehitman]

I dont think PS4 will do those numbers but just for fun since NO ONE knows how ps4 will do I think it will at least reach 100m this time assuming the economy is much better during the ps4 time and seeing how Sony seem to be getting the act str8 from the start this gen. Only way PS4 can eclipse PS2 is if Xbox is a complete and utter flop which I dont think will happen regardless if the always on-line thing is true. I also think the ps4 will be around 450-550 dollars I would be very surprised if its more and kind of shocked if they go as low as 399 unless they have a bare-bones edition that im not fond of anyway.

[raytraceme]

One thing that I have seen towards the end of this generation is that the ps3 is ending strong and I think it's a good sign for Sony next gen.

[Belking]

The ps3 ending is a good thing for sony. It has been somewhat of a disaster for them financially. That's why they dropped the cell.

[JBSleek]

60 million in 6 years.

[GreenRanger]

...and 17 minutes.

[RockmanII7]

85-105 million would be my bet

[iNathan]

SmartPhones and Tablets are rising and will eat Console Sales, this is just wishfull thinking.

Xbox 360 SW is at ~800mm Ps4 has a chance of 1 bilion but it will be really hard but anything can happen but i doubt.

[mt]

any "real" gamer knows that smartphones and tablets are not really hardcore games, almost all of the games are meant to be for casuals.

[JBSleek]

What you and most core gamers fail to realize is real gamers aren't the only one buying these. If that was the case these sales would be dismal.

Tablets are a threat welcome to 2013. Sure the hardcore will buy it but the decision of iPad vs console for some are real. How can you possibly neglect the glaring numbers in the exponentially rising tablet and mobile world.

In a couple of years as Intel reaches mobile and the next generation of ARM comes out mobile will be powerful and efficient.

Am I saying next gen will fail? Absolutely not but to act like mobile isn't playing a factor in this race is so silly.

[hkgamer]

PS1 era
PS1 - 100
N64 - 30
Saturn 10

PS2 era
PS2 - 150
GC - 20
Xbox - 25

PS3 era
Ps3 - 75
360 -75
Wii - 100

If Sony is succesful and 60% of us gamers buy a PS4 then I reckon Sony could hit 85million.
Still not sure why I posted the previous generations consoles sold but I guess it helps put it into perspective of how many consoles are sold each gen.

[izumo_lee]

The PS4 will do above 70 million thus making Sony the ONLY console developer to have all their platforms sell in excess of over 70 million.

Even if you count Sony's handhelds the PSP (all versions) sold over 70 million & if the Vita picks up steam just like with the PSP, it will sell over 70 million as well.

What other console developer can have that distinction to their name....not Sega, not Atari, not Microsoft, not even Nintendo has that.

[hkgamer]

Don't really care about the other consoles tbh.

Well hopefully more people will have a PS4 as a main console for this generation. If 360 wasn't so succesful then PS3 figures would have been around 100+mil.

Just looking at Sony vs MS alone, hopefully sony will have 70% of the market share. Didn't include Nintendo because their market is slightly different.

[Kakashi Hatake]

Consoles and tablets are for 2 different markets, they provide different gaming experiences. It's funny that the same people saying consoles won't sell well because of price are touting tablets which cost 500-600 dollars and offer watered down game experiences.

[Conzul]

Methinks now might be the time to invest in Sony stock.

[DivineAssault]

i think the games projection is off unless it doesnt include indie titles.. There will be MANY games on PS4.. Plus PS3 isnt going to stop at 77mil

[Jaqen_Hghar]

A man expects PS3 to teter out at about 105m by the time it's done.
Last year it did 12m
This year it can do 10 with a price cut (likely) bringing it to over 80m
2014 there will of course be another decline but could still hold at 7m
2015 probably another price cut by now and 5m
2016 keeps selling in developing countries 3m
Even if we go by VGC numbers which a man is pretty sure are under tracking, those reasonable estimates put it at 97m by the end the of 2016 and a man thinks it will continue to sell a couple million past then.