Expect slow adoption of all three consoles next generation

"EA CFO Blake Jorgensen has said that the development cost per game could be five to ten per cent higher on PS4 than its current-gen systems. Today, we are living in an age where games have to sell 2 million to 5 million units (depending on the game’s overall budget). Who can forget when EA’s Labels president Frank Gibeau said Dead Space 3 needed to sell around around five million to continue to investing in an IP like Dead Space.
Today’s games struggle to break even with two to five million copies on 360 (76 million units worldwide) and PS3 (77 million units worldwide) which is a total of 153 million units worldwide. Think about that. You’re struggling to sell 3 million games to an install base of 153 million consoles sold. That means they are failing to sell their game to 2% of 360/PS3′s combined install bases. What chance is there to break even on brand new consoles (Xbox 720, PS4, Wii U) with install bases that are starting from scratch with 5-10% added to next gen development costs?", writes NotEnoughShaders.

[CouldHaveYelledUiiW]

@E. Rogers
"Note: I took some advice from my brother at my father’s funeral this week. He advised me to go back to writing again full time. This is my first article in 3 months so I’m a little rusty."

Sorry for your loss.
Your brother was right and if that is you rusty, then the other journalist are in trouble. "Excellent" and "Yes" Vote for site.

Besides me quibbling about your WiiU categorization -
I have to say I agree with most of the things you have to say.

I think this slow trend that we see on the WiiU will be fate for Microsoft and Sony too.

If for nothing else the COST of these systems are going to be more than most (humans) want to immediately spend in the current global economy.

[ravinash]

Hang on, with the more PC like programming for the PS4, won't the dev cost go down from the PS3???

[CouldHaveYelledUiiW]

Good Point,

(I Agreed due to the "good point")

But it remains to be seen.

1 You also have to factor in more details and more DPi for HD. that takes extra man power and time too.

2 Adoption rates for next gen. Some people forecast low across the board. If this is true then like Ubisoft said all games will be ports- who knows how they will fair cross 3 or 4 Plats.
-And it cost money and time.

Time(can)=$

[zeal0us]

If anything like last time I expect MS to end support of the 360 soon as they release the next Xbox.

Given Sony in the past they will continue to support the PS3 but probably not as long as they did with the PS2.

Ouya is really just a niche product so I wouldn't call it a console. There are plenty of android products that do similar things like Ouya, just with less indie support.

Steam Box falls in the same category as Ouya,niche product. I don't see a lot of hardcore PC gamers picking this up especially if they are fine with their PC. Not only that but it will run Linux. Nothing bad/wrong with Linux except the number of Steam games support Linux is quite small. Sure the number linux steam users went .9% to 2% recently but the number of games that support linux hasn't rise.

[bluetoto]

"I don't see a lot of hardcore PC gamers picking this up especially if they are fine with their PC."

It's not for hardcore PC users, it's for console gamers like me who want to move on to PC gaming with the same ease of console gaming. It will be huge for millions of us that like to play games, not systems.

[Intentions]

Hmm, dunno about most people, but for me, I'm def going to be one of em slow adopters of next-gen.

[whoyouwit04]

I will be so so I will by one early but not day one early, I'm going to wait a few months to see what problems they have.

[caseh]

Depends on the launch lineup for me, i'll be after a PS4 so if Killzone and Infamous at least make the launch i'll be an early adopter.

The lack of titles on PS3 at launch held me off buying one for e a good 6 months until I saw the release date for MGS4

[PS4isKing_82]

This slow adoption with the wiiU is easy to see. There aren't any games on it since launch that are worth playing and plus its still seen as inferior to the other next gen consoles coming out. Ps4 will have a much more steady stream of releases during and after launch. Nintendo just utterly failed with their scheduling of the wiiU and future releases. They should Have waited longer until more games were ready. Cause full price ports of 6 month old games isn't gunna cut it.

[Good_Guy_Jamal]

Price. If it is right, from the start then I'm in. Otherwise I still got a massive ps3 backlog I need to go thru and since PS4 doesn't play ps3 games I won't be upgrading anytime soon

[mcstorm]

I agree with you. I normally get a new console on day one. I got the WiiU on day one but I now have a big back log of games I want to get through on the PS3, 360, PSV 3DS and WiiU.

Just at the end of last year I got Halo 4, Forza Horizon, MarioU, ZombieU, COD BO2, Tekken Tag 2, Sonic All Star, Nike + Kinect, PSASBR, UC3 and Nintendo Land, NFS MW, AC on the PSV and Fifa 13.

I am yet to finish any of them. I'm near the End of Forza Horizon, MarioU and NFS MW but that's it. I also have Luigi's Mansion 2, Lego City and Pickmin 3 on pre order to so I have decided im going to get through all these games before even looking at a new console or even pre ordering any games.

I think the PS4 and Next Xbox sales will be around the same as the WiiU at this point next year but 12 to 18 months in the console sales will start to pickup.

[shutUpAndTakeMyMoney]

Bam!!

http://n4g.com/news/1187827...

[CouldHaveYelledUiiW]

"And so, it begins..."

"Helpful" @ SU&TMM

[Fairchild Channel F]

Really depends on how well the old consoles are supported. If a ton of games get released for, say, the PS3 then the PS4 might be a slow starter. If however a ton of games are released for the PS4 and the PS3 starts to phase out then I think the PS4 will sell a bunch.

[Captain Qwark 9]

BC is going to be the determining factor for me. i already know ps4 wont be so i can hold off a few months but will def get one within a year once it has like 2-3 must plays.

if the next xbox has BC then its day one. if not, same scenario as ps4.

wii u.....i will wait another 2 years or more if* i get it. right now and just like the last two nintendo consoles, i only want it for nintendo's ips. am i really the only person who thinks they would be far better off just developing games for ps4/720??? i feel like they would make bundles of cash. no hardware expenses anymore, just games, games, and games

[lema008]

Your brother was right, sorry to hear about your Dad.

The console market like the economy is hard to predict sometimes.
Who would have thought Ps 2 would sell well along with a pricely PS3 selling well too.
Who thought Microsoft was in serious trouble with the RROD trouble.
Who thought the Wii would sell like hot cakes.

But you might have something here. With the Wii U it's plan to see it needs a price cut. You'll be surprise what even a $50 price cut does along with some new titles.

[madjedi]

A $50 price cut will mean almost nothing to a primarily ps3 or 360 gamers, especially if it's the basic sku with it's laughable 8 gigs of storage.

I have looked at the upcoming lineup, your likely looking at holiday 13 or later for those new games you need.

Slow adoption rate, might not be as high as people want, but it certainly won't be as slow as the wii u's. Ps3 and 360 guys are looking forward to a next gen console, and the wii u does not fit that definition in many areas.

For the major nintendo fans the wii u is great, for alot of us it is too similar to the current ps3 and 360 to merit being called next gen.

Especially with the ps4 and 720(until proven otherwise) being total beasts compared to the current gen twins.

[Munnkyman]

I agree with a lot of points in this article. But I do believe that Nintendo was its own worst enemy coming of of the gate with the wii u. First by having the name wii in it and not have a really strong known ip coming out with the console. So that had to factor a lot it sales. I do believe they can turn it around and hopefully will.

[bluetoto]

Software sells hardware. If there are great NEW games to be played then tons of gamers will jump on board. If all they have to offer is the same titles we have now but with more pixels then only fans of those games will adopt early.

[rainslacker]

"Today, we are living in an age where games have to sell 2 million to 5 million units (depending on the game’s overall budget)."

Uhh..99% of games never break the 1 million mark, and many of those studios are still doing just fine. Maybe a rethink on how you spend that money and cutting out redundancies that don't help make the game any better...pro-tip: upper management may be a good start.

Be innovative, be creative, be unique, and offer value for your products. It's not about having the most expensive production, or the biggest marketing budget, it's about making good games. Making the same profit on a lower selling title because it's cheaper to make, is much better than risking huge sums of money on a title which may tank because you have set your expectations too high on what a game has to sell.