The PS4's Biggest Problem is the PS3: The Next-Gen Dilemma

Sony’s last announcement, their knockout punch, was that Bungie, a company who was instrumental in building the Xbox brand, would be bringing their work to the PS4. This was certainly a reason for Sony fans, at least Sony fans that like FPS games, to rejoice. Having Destiny on the PS4 would be a huge reason for Xbox fans to switch their allegiances. The problem is that Destiny will also be headed to the Xbox 360. Destiny will also come to the PS3 and will presumably come to Microsoft’s next console as well. You don’t need a PS4 to play Destiny.

[miyamoto]

*sigh... move on people nothing substantial here...waste of time

His message is that people do not want nor not interested in new generation consoles like we are not that bored yet with 7 year current gen systems.

[JustinWeinblatt]

Don't make the faulty assumption that the population of N4G and other devoted gaming sites represent the general gaming population. Remember that about half of the PS3's sales came from 2010 on, so these people haven't had a PS3 for 7 years, but 3. There are plenty of people who will happily go on for another 3-4 years simply buying the next COD or Madden.

Even for those of us who are bored with the current generation, that doesn't mean we'll instantly jump to something new. New hardware is only exciting when it comes with new software. Assassin's Creed IV and the next COD (which I assure you will be on current gen consoles) are going to offer a similar experience on next gen and current gen consoles, just with different lighting effects and different resolution.

So, what exactly is going to make people rush out to buy a PS4? Will Sony's first party stuff be enough? Will the fact that it is "new" be enough to draw in the masses? I don't think so.

I appreciate you reading and commenting even if you disagree with me, but please don't put words in my mouth. If I had to sum up my message in a sentence it would be this.

"Sony is going to have a hard time selling a next gen console based mainly on current gen software."

[Hellsvacancy]

""Sony is going to have a hard time selling a next gen console based mainly on current gen software"

You can say the same about the 720, or the Wii U

I dont even know why you used Destiny as an example, the majority of PS users are more hyped for Killzone than they are Destiny, we all knew long before the PS4 was announced that Bungie is now a multiplatform developer

[MysticStrummer]

@Hellsvacancy - I don't know any PS3 owner who is more excited for Killzone: Shadowfall than for Destiny. KZ:SF looks like typical KZ, which means a very nice looking but mostly generic shooter with above average AI. That's not a bad thing by any means, and I'm assuming KZ's AI will remain above average like it always has been, but myself and the other PS3 gamers I know are all more intrigued by Destiny.

I do agree that Bungie announced quite awhile ago that they would be going multiplat, so calling Destiny on PS3/PS4 a "knockout punch" is pretty silly.

[bageara]

1 count here for being more excited for Killzone than I am destiny and I know plenty others

[LOGICWINS]

I'm actually more excited for Destiny/Watch Dogs than anything else at the conference. They we're the only two titles at the conference that showed how the PS4 was going to provide me with a better gaming experience than my PS3, not just a better visual experience.

Btw Justin, keep making sense. Your 100% correct that the masses won't adopt the PS4 immediately because the PS3 still offers a fantastic gaming experience. The people here believe that the entire gaming community thinks like they do and buys every console at launch. Miyamoto completely disregarded the fact that some people just bought their PS3s within the past 2-3 years and aren't ready to upgrade.

[miyamoto]

Like your dreaming of?

Your hate has blinded you to see beyond the future or back into the past.
Majority of gamers are not as narrow minded and as short sighted.

1) If they knew PS4 wont sell well at launch because of PS3 versions, why even make high fidelity versions of these games for PS4?
Are you saying these devs and pubs will just stop and do nothing?

Yet they do make PS4 versions.
They are making these game cos they "know" PS4 will sell well.

Core gamers since the NES days make buying new consoles, regardless of platform, as a hobby for decades. That behavior and intention has not changed a bit in fact its getting bigger and bigger a consumer habit for electronics. These are not casual gamers who ride the fad these are core gamers whose regular life revolves on gaming.

Also this behavior is prominent to millions of PC gamers who prefer the best graphics experience they can afford. They would rather have the latest and the greatest. This behavior has driven the industry forward for the past 40 years of gaming and Sony knows this and banks on it.

2) Also
Exclusives = Identity
No one is exactly the same.

Nintendo is Nintendo because of the exclusive games. It was their exclusives that kept their heads above water during PS1 and PS2 times of domination up to the Wii.

The same with Sony. PlayStation is PlayStation because of the exclusive PlayStation only games; kept them competitive and still going ahead against a giant money monster like M$ since 2001 whose sole purpose is to stop the PlayStation brand.

Any company lives & thrives on exclusive products and services - their identity.

DC comics has Batman, The Joker, Superman etc and Marvel Comics has Spiderman, Iron Man, Wolverine etc.

You want these companies to have the same faces?

All 12 Sony dev teams are said to be working on PS4 games and so far only 4 were shown.

Can you at least wait for GDC, PAX East, E3, Gamescom, Tokyo Game Show and the PS4 launch window before you spew this drivel out of your mouth?

Look at this list for a rough idea's sake.
How can you tell me exclusives do not make a difference?

PlayStation 3 games that have sold or shipped at least four million copies.
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (12.04 million)
Call of Duty: Black Ops (11.39 million)
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (9.95 million)
Gran Turismo 5 (9.19 million)
Grand Theft Auto IV (9.18 million)
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (6.13 million)
Uncharted 2 (7.98 million)
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (6.64 million)
Uncharted 3 (7.64 million)
Battlefield 3 (5.52 million)
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (5.35 million)
God of War III (9.19 million)
Assassin's Creed II (5.97 million)
Little Big Planet (4.93 million)
Call of Duty: World at War (4.86 million)
Infamous (4.85 million)
Final Fantasy XIII (4.84 million)
Red Dead Redemption (4.77 million)
Resident Evil 5 (4.7 million)
Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception (4.7 million)
Assassin's Creed (4.39 million
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (4.24 million)
Resistance: Fall of Man (4.06 million)
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (4.04 million)

You can be darn sure PS4 will keep this balance of 1st, 2nd and 3rd party games like they do now cos it has been their principle since day 1 of the original PlayStation.

Exclusives will work for all competitive companies concerned.

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

Uh, I think it's fairly obvious that not everyone is going to rush out and buy it at launch. Sony and every other company in the industry expects that. If they had the type of mentality you have though, they would never release a new console/new games for that new console.

[BrianC6234]

Of course everyone won't buy a new console right away. That would be impossible anyway. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo can't make them that fast.

[Cupid_Viper_3]

And once again LOGIC, we disagree.

"The people here believe that the entire gaming community thinks like they do and buys every console at launch."

No, no one thinks in such absolute terms unless they haven't hit puberty yet. Almost 80 million people aren't going to migrate to the PS4 at once, and Sony is not expecting to manufacture 80 million PS4 by December as well.

And only on ILLOGICAL people would assumed that selling more PS3's (like Sony always intended to do) is going to be a problem for the PS4.

Hello? Every PS3 sold means that someone didn't buy a Wii U, or an Xbox 360, or the XBOX 720. Meaning a Win for Sony. That's the very reason why new IP's are still being made for the PS3.

More people will jump from Xbox 360 to either PS4 or Xbox 720 then from the PS3. The Xbox 360's support is drying up(at a much faster rate than the PS3's), and that will be further accelerated when the next gen hit.

To give you an idea, when the xbox 360 launched in 2005-2006, The sales of the PS2 went up from 16.11 million units to 16.22 million units for that year. Care to guess what the numbers were for the Original Xbox that year?

[Hicken]

You seem to be under some odd assumption that first adopters aren't aware of these things already. The people that Sony's going after so far are the types of folks who would be on sites like this.

The system WILL have "new software," not just games available on current gen systems. Why are you treating the handful of games seen at the announcement as if they'd be the ONLY games the system would see? The PS Vita saw some 20-odd games at launch, most of them exclusive; Sony says they're looking to top that for the PS4's launch.

Your message is duly noted, but ill-conceived, given what we already know- both about how Sony does their releases, and the PS4 in general- and what's reasonable to expect.

[MikeMyers]

JustinWeinblatt, you have multiple layers of buyers.

You have your hardcore group that will rush out and buy anything. Apple has really tapped into this type of customer. Sony also has loyal customers like that but we have seen dents in that shiny armor, notably the Vita and to a lesser extent the PS3. The Vita's adoption rate is lower than the PSP during the same period of time and the same with the PS3 when compared to the PS2. We also see it happening on the Wii U where the adoption rate is much lower than the Wii.

Then you have those who like to wait a bit. Kind of like myself. I know there will be growing pains while Sony gets the network up to speed but more importantly is the software selection. I always see a small handful with every launch that interests me. Of course people wait for the price to drop as well before committing.

Then you have your backbenchers that take a little more pushing to get them to buy it. Those are the people who are likely buying the PS3 right now or after the PS4 comes out.

But you're right, the forums don't translate into what the mainstream public buys. If you were to go from the attitude here Call of Duty would hardly sell any copies. That simply isn't the case. The biggest problem Sony faces is what they all face. Trying to balance launch games and keep software momentum alive while pricing the system accordingly. Why do you think Sony haven't released a price yet? It's because it's far too early to reveal your hand. They don't know what Microsoft is going to charge, they don't know if Steambox will be coming this year and at what price. What Sony does have an idea is the cost it will take to make, market and distribute the PS4. Then they have to decide if they are going to take a loss or not and how much of one.

The PS3 right now is still rather high if they plan on a sub-$400 PS4. They could drop the system to $199 and have the PS4 come out starting at $399. I think we will see it at $399 and $499 for the pro model. The PS3 will also fade much quicker than the PS2 did. We won't have as long of a shelf life of the PS3 once the PS4 hits. After Christmas season of 2014 the PS3 will be phased out and the Xbox 360 possibly sooner.

Long story short is Sony is having the best momentum right now going into the next gen. The Wii U in my opinion came out too late. It should have been released a year earlier. Microsoft is still the wild card as to what direction they want to take the next Xbox and how closely they want to compete with the PS4.

[Ju]

Hard choice, eh? AC4 for PS3 or PS4? Let me think about that for a sec...nope, I rather save those extra $400 till October...not going to play that on the PS3. Nope. Neither KZ, nor Destiny. Last of Us, yes, and whatever I can't get on the PS4. But I sure will bite the bullet and get me a PS4 if I can ... I have the feeling it'll be sold out quickly (if not, great).

[FamilyGuy]

I'm hearin the opposite, people were starting buy PS3s but slowed down because of the PS4 announcement. I have a friend at work that was just about to get one then changed his mind cuz plans on just waiting for the PS4 to come out.

[TheTwelve]

They said the same thing about the PS2...and were wrong then.

[smashcrashbash]

Ummmmmm. What makes you think Destiny is the most exciting game? We know almost nothing about Destiny and it just looks like another shooter. I am more excited for Infamous and Drive Club then another long potentially drawn out shooter from Bungie. I mean seriously they couldn't have at least tried to think outside the box? Also you are forgetting that every studio with Sony is making a game for them and also that the PS4's power will make games run and look much better. Sure you could buy Destiny on the PS3 but for people who would prefer the next gen treatment they will buy the PS4 for it. Why are people so concerned about Sony having third parties on their side? No one complained about Nintendo reaching out to third parties or Microsoft having mostly third party. We all know Sony will bring the first parties but they have to cater for third parties too. And what is wrong with having it for both systems and getting twice the profit? Sales on the PS3 version plus putting it on the PS4? They get the PS4 version and still get the sales on the PS3 version too.Let's at least wait until Sony reveals every exclusive game they have before we talk about slow starts and problems.

[JustinWeinblatt]

I would say that Destiny has already gathered a ton of hype, and judging by Sony's decision to close their conference with it, Sony thought it was a big deal too. Also considering Bungie's clout and success in the industry, I'd say its pretty fair that it's a bigger deal than Infamous or Drive Club. This is my impression, but feel free to disagree with me.

The PS4's power will make games look better, but will this power be enough to make gamers spend 400 dollars or so for a new consoles? Are gamers going to be paying 400 dollars to play Assassin's Creed IV HD+ instead of Assassin's Creed IV?

The problem with having games run on both systems is that it cuts down on the incentive to upgrade. Exclusives sell consoles, and it's as plain as that. You need to show off what your hardware offers that older systems don't. Financially, it makes perfect sense to release a game on a system with a larger install base, but if you're trying to push people towards a new product, it doesn't.

It's a fair point that I should probably wait until the PS4 is out to make these statements, but as someone who writes about games, prediction is part of the game. It would be quite boring if I talked about a slow start after that slow start is happening. This isn't meant to be a definitive statement of what will happen in the industry, just my impressions based on patterns that I recognize. If it turns out that I'm wrong, feel free to give me a good old I told you so :)

Thanks for reading and taking the time to offer a thought out response. I really do appreciate it, even if you do disagree.

[smashcrashbash]

I don't think Sony's decision to end with Destiny means nothing.If Destiny was so important to them then why didn't they lead with it and save their own stuff for later? They did no different then anyone else, start with your own stuff then move on to third parties. Destiny is only hyped by people who already conclude that because Bungie is making it that automatically means it will be a good game but Sony obviously didn't bank the whole conference on the fact that they had Destiny too.

My point is that Sony is obviously not quite ready to give up on the PS3 yet which is why they are making sure that certain games are coming to both the PS3 and the PS4 but they obviously won't ignore the fact that the PS4 will need the incentive for people to buy it which is what Knack, Drive Club and Infamous and whatever other exclusives or original games they have are for. If they just dropped the PS3 and brought every single thing for the PS4 then people will accuse them of FORCING them to buy a PS4 and be even more resilient against it but this way they can make the transition easier plus putting more money in their pocket for a system that only just recently became profitable.

The last system is always competition for the last one since it is better established and has more games for it which is probably one of the reasons why the Wii U is slipping in sales.That is well known. But Sony has always supported a system even after the next one came out.Just like the PS2 they will eventually phase out the PS3 eventually but more profit is always a good thing. If they can make money on the PS3 while waiting for the PS4's fanbase to build and for more games then that is a good thing. Business is all about risks and there is always a risk no matter what. If Sony only turned attention to the PS4 then that is millions of PS3 unit sales gone .So they have to keep momentum for the PS3 going while still feeding the PS4. It's a balancing act to be sure but a legitimate business decision.Of course some one will always say you should have done this and that but you won't know the results unless you take the risk.The PS3 may not be the problem you think it will be.

[MysticStrummer]

The reaction of myself and all my gaming friends is what makes me think Destiny is the most exciting game. To us, Destiny and Watch Dogs were the best things shown, we were all more intrigued by Deep Down than we were by KZ:SF or Infamous: Second Son, and none of us care about Knack at all. Not to say KZ:SF, I:SS, or Knack will be bad or anything close to it, just that the other games were more interesting to us.

[smashcrashbash]

That is because of the bias people put games in. How is controlling things with a cell phone and running around like GTA more exciting then being a super powered hero? Second Son could be more exciting then Destiny and Watch Dogs combined but you put Knack and Infamous immediately into the not intrigued pile because you instantly think Watch Dogs and Destiny will be good games when they could be the worst ever. You never even consider for a second that they could excel over them which is why many games get tossed aside.You tell yourself it is going to be good not excellent.

Destiny looks just like another shooter but you are excited. No groan about 'Not another shooter'. But Killzone appears and people instantly complain about how there are to many shooters and Guerrilla should do something different. You see where the bias comes in? Guerrilla games must never make another Killzone but Bungie can spam shooters until they are blue in the face.You automatically bring Infamous down to lower levels because Sucker Punch made it and in no way anyone will think it could be the same caliber as any of those games.

You don't care if they put more effort into the next Infamous or not.But it's not your fault, People always go for the more mainstream games which is why many good games fall by the way side.I know people will bring down Knack even if it gets great scores or is the better game and hand Watchdogs and Destiny high scores whether they deserve it or not. That is how it is.Knack could be the breath of fresh air we need but GTA clones and more shooters will always take the lead over everything else. Oh yeah except if the shooter is on the PlayStation only. Then it is no good.

[ILive]

Knack is very intriguing, actually. I am pretty sure there will be games available only for the system to have people make the jump. The year only just begun. We still have to wait and see what games are in store only for the system. Metal gear solid 4 and uncharted 2 were the reasons I had to own a ps3. Those games alone made the ps3 worth every penny. The witcher 3 is coming out the beginning of next year. If that isn't enough of a reason to buy the next xbox or playstation, then I dont know what is.

[Jaqen_Hghar]

This happens every gen. A man isn't concerned.

[OpenGL]

Love the Game of Thrones reference

[DanyBrown]

it's funny the first time but it gets tiring.
A man should reconsider his choices.

[lovegames718]

Nothing will be stopping me from buying a Ps4. Definitely not the two ps3's i have in the house already. Ppl didnt buy ps3's in the inception not because they didn't want to, but because of the price. It wasn't because they were still busy playing ps2 so that point is moot. If you see once Ps3 dropped under 400 it started selling like hot cakes!!! If ps4 is priced right it will be good to gooooooo. I think it will be 450 but the best price would be 400 so they can start selling fast.

[MysticStrummer]

This same article could be written about every generation. The old consoles will continue to sell at the lower price. This is nothing new.

[JustinWeinblatt]

@Hellsvacancy

First off, I DO say that about the Wii U. This isn't a PS4 only problem, and the Wii U is used as an example in the article. The 720 isn't announced yet, but its a fairly safe assumption that this problem will hamper Microsoft as well.

Sony fans may be more excited about Killzone, but I think to the majority of gamers, Destiny is a bigger deal. Assassin's Creed is also a bigger franchise than Killzone, and COD is definitely a bigger deal. These are the major titles that will be around during the PS4 launch (and a few months beyond), and the fact that they're all going to be on PS3 as well is an issue.

Killzone will be a great exclusive, but Killzone isn't really a huge franchise. It's successful, but it's not on Mario, Halo, GTA, COD, or Gran Turismo level. It will help, but I don't think Killzone is enough. Sony could announce a slew of other IPs for launch at E3 and make me look quite foolish, but I don't see that happening.

Thanks for reading and commenting.

@SmashbashCrash-

Thanks again for the great comment, and you raise some really good points that maybe I didn't fully consider. Obviously, ignoring the PS3 is going to mean some lost profits, but I think establishing the PS4 as the dominant console should be a higher priority right now. You bring up a great point about Sony supporting the PS2 post PS3 launch, but keep in mind that the PS3's initial uptake was somewhat weak. This was largely due to the price, but the PS2's appeal also had something to do with this.

Look at what's happening with the Vita right now in Japan. The PSP has regularly been outselling the Vita for I believe a year. This is because Japanese devs are still releasing tons of PSP software, and Sony hasn't convinced gamers that the Vita is a worthwhile upgrade. We'll see if the recent price cut will help and by how much, but having to cut hardware prices is not a good thing, and I think if Sony had ensured stronger Vita support from the start and less PSP support, they would have been better off. We also saw the same thing with the 3DS/DS transition, and the Wii/360/PS3 to Wii U transition.

Like you said, it is a balance, and I wouldn't advocate cutting the PS3 off entirely, but based on what we've seen, the PS4/PS3 balance is off. Aside from Sony's stuff, third party software shown at Sony's presentation was, with the probable exception of deep down, all available on the PS3 or other already available platforms.

Knack, Killzone, and Drive Club look good, but I just don't see them as enough to drive sales for a new console. I think Sony needs to show off some big third party franchises at E3 that are ideally PS4 exclusive. This isn't too realistic, but if they're at least Next Gen exclusive, that would be a big step in the right direction.

Again, thanks a lot for your response.

@Miyamoto- Notice that none of the games you mentioned were available on the PS2. If you wanted those games you had to upgrade to a new system and choose between the X-Box 360 and a PS3. If you want to play Destiny, ACIV, and so on, you don't have to buy any new hardware at all. I'm not sure we're on the same page here.

[supremacy]

But i think its more than just about games that are exclusive to one platform over the other.

I believe from a personal perspective that i as a consumer would look & ask what the differences between the platforms in question are before i ask what the differences are between the two versions of said games.

If i am told that not only will the ps4 displayed a better looking game, but also host a slew of network features that not only are convinient to have, but also change how i feel about gaming in general. Yeah, thats a huge difference and is something that will persuede a buyer to think about opting for the superior version.

Now, if am a person who doesnt care about any of that, then ill go for the cheaper and inferior choice. But, does it really matter?Both old and new platforms are own by the same corporation, which means one is profitable and the other is entering peoples lives at a marginal loss, which not ironically are being offset by the older platform profits, with the majority of the profits coming from software.

So its not as simple the wiiu not having appealling games; there are many variables to consider. One, is lack or marketing and the one thing you still see in the street; consumer confusion. The wiiu is thought by a good portion of people outside of the gaming circle as an odd or peripheral to the wii radther than its own thing.

Also, the wiiu doesnt really offer anything current gen hardware can't offer,online service is almost none existant, the games look like those found current gen hardware and to make matters worst the system for what it is, isnt cheap. People may not be in the know like many of us, but they are not stupid to simply buy on hype. They will go around and ask questions if interested or simply do a cyber research.

But, yeah games are important and make a difference; and in that same breath i will say this. Sony, is constantly approving of new concepts and ips, while Nintendo for the most part rely on the same ones with a huge focus on gameplay.

The ps3 to me is a gateway to the ps4. Looking at how the ps3 has turned out with all these exclusive releases like the ps2 before it, only makes me see and think about the ps4 in the same light if anything.

[RogueStatus28]

How many games are going to be at launch to window that you can't play on the PS3? Last of Us, God of War Ascension, and Beyond Two Souls are all coming-out as PS3 exclusive. Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed IV, and Destiny will also be on PS3.

[madjedi]

So instead of some people buying a ps4 immediately, they buy all those games on ps3 and the downside for sony is what again?

The guys that buys all of those sony exclusives will be upgrading to a ps4, within a year or 2, for it's exclusive games.

E3 is still 3 or 4 months away and people are already creating fud articles lol.

Lmao a nintendo guy downplaying the ps4's launch lineup by promoting the many upcoming ps3 exclusives, i guess anyway you can spin it.

[Clarence]

Sony did fine with the PS2 to PS3, they'll do fine with the PS3 to PS4

[thehitman]

ps4 day 1 for me, just saying be w/o 1 that is somebody else's own choice. Interested in my KZ and infamous.

[cee773]

My little 6 year old nephew is getting A ps4 for Christmas ;) he begged A pleaded with his mom and said that's all I want , you don't even have to get me anything for my birthday, just want A ps4 lol .

What I hate about this scenario I'll have to get a ps4 sooner than I thought , lol

[T2]

Damn another kid ill have to beat down in lineup to secure my own ps4 ! Lol

[yewles1]

A friend of mine talked about the possibility of "PlayStation Civil War", between PS3 fans not ready for PS4 and those whom are otherwise. Considering the big game announcements, it may be interesting to see what happens throughout the year...

[BLow]

Ahh, why is Playstation only in the title. Same could be said with the 360. We have these same recycled articles every console generation. The PS2 just ended production in the beginning of this year and PS3 is doing fine. The PS2 did fine while PS1 was still selling. Maybe everyone should just copy and paste articles already written loooong ago and just update the systems. Oh boy...

[jaixvx]

Im not buying a ps4. I will wait for ps5.

[madjedi]

Wow really not everyone will buy it at launch, thank you captain obvious we really needed a article to explain this to us.

A gaming journalist should not have to have it explained to him, that their are different tiers of new console owners.

Sony will love people buying ps3's and games for it, that is still revenue coming in to them. And sony probably already has estimated roughly how many gamers ps4 at launch/slightly after, and we will see cross generational games for a while, just like we saw when the 360 launched.

All throughout this generation the ps2 made sony money, when the ps4 launches the ps3 will make even more money for sony.

And @$400-450 that is alot easier on the wallet than $600. Sony didn't sell 75 million ps3's overnight.