Analyst: Wii U risks market-share loss, premature price drop

XMNR: In the same investors note that predicted the release of the PS4 and Xbox 720 this fall at prices as low as $350, Baird Securities analyst Colin Sebastian also shared some thoughts on Wii U. He essentially says that Nintendo will find itself in a niche market.

[PopRocks359]

The Wii U's numbers would have to be pretty low to warrant a price drop. I point everyone into the direction of the 3DS and the Vita. The 3DS was not selling without any big name hitters and the Vita is apparently selling slower than the Dreamcast.

Wait for reports of abysmal Wii U sales and then you can predict that price drop.

[Godchild1020]

The Wii U is not selling as bad as the Vita, but the fact that it had some Heavy Hitters from the start is alarming. AS you said the 3DS was not selling as well as it's doing now without some big name hitters, but now it is. The Wii U launch with a minimum of 3 big names and is not doing as well as most would have expected. It had Mario, Call of Duty and Monster Hunter in Japan.

I'm not saying Nintendo will drop the price now, but I think they will before or after Sony and Microsoft announce/release their new consoles. The Wii sold well because of a number of factors and the price played a very big part in it.

[PopRocks359]

Correction: It had New Super Mario Bros. U, Black Ops 2 and ZombiU, the last of which had a lot of hype whether you (speaking generally, not necessarily of you) liked it or now. Also, Monster Hunter was essentially an HD remake of a Wii game; I am looking forward to it myself, but anyone who bought the original version may be hesitant to double dip.

The thing is, I feel a lot of 360/PS3 gamers felt that the multiplatform games were not justifiable purchases on the Wii U because they can get them (in some cases more cheaply) on the consoles they already own, which is a perfectly reasonable reason to hold off.

But the Wii U has more content coming. I have a few friends who are waiting for Pikmin 3. Others who are waiting for Star Fox/F-Zero and Smash Bros. 4. The big name exclusives are coming to the Wii U, it's merely a matter of time.

Consoles eventually get price drops regardless. Look at the Wii. It didn't start slowing down in sales until recent years and they dropped the price halfway into its lifespan.

[Godchild1020]

@PopRocks359, You are right I did forget Zombie U and yes I was looking forward to it, but didn't pick it up due to wanting Scribblenauts Unlimited more. I didn't buy the original Monster Hunter on the Wii, but If I did I would still get it, just to see it in HD. But not everyone thinks like me. I like HD remakes and collections.

I have always been a fan of Pikmin and it's one of my highly anticipated known titles on the Wii U. I didn't mention any of the Third party games, because I didn't really see them moving hardware, because I knew the install base for those games are on the PS3/360. I did have a few friends that waited to pick up AC3 for the Wii U, me not so much. I'm waiting for the inevitable HD Zelda to grace the platform and hopefully a true HD Pokemon game on the system.

The Wii didn't need a price drop, it was the cheapest of the 3 and had controls that got everyone active in the game that was being played.

[nukeitall]

I would hardly call the games released on Wii U heavy hitters.

I think the sales isn't oddly good, considering it beat both the PS3 and Xbox 360 sales in the same time frame. The Wii is just an abnormality.

I think it is too early too tell. The Wii U needs more games to be released and it has at least another year to do better.

[rainslacker]

I posted this on another article. But come 720 and PS4 time Nintendo is likely going to have the cheapest next gen console on the market. For the first year or so of those 2 systems we probably won't see a huge leap in terms of graphics or game play if we go based on history. Most will be upgraded versions of this generations games, much like the current Wii U lineup is. By the time the next systems come out, Wii U will start having better looking games, and hopefully better playing games. The fact that it's cheaper will help keep it's sales up, thus not needing a price cut.

Nintendo could also drop a Zelda, Metroid, SSB, etc around the other systems release dates, and make bank. They are in a better position to have a real heavy hitter on the 720/PS4 launch. Of course we can only speculate if MS/Sony will have a big title for their release.

I believe a price cut is further off than people may expect.

[kevnb]

3ds had an early price drop.

[Gr81]

Wii U has 100% of the market share atm. I'm loving the Wii U doom news. I'm looking forward to the other consoles release as well. It will be a merry-go-round around here.

[LOL_WUT]

Got a link to back that up?

I doubt that be the case if all consoles were to have released on the same day or if Nintendo had held off releasing the Wii U so early and playing it safe. Just think about it... ;)

[KwietStorm_BLM]

A link to show that the Wii U has 100% of the next generation console market? You need research for that?

[shutUpAndTakeMyMoney]

Actually no.. Since ps3 and 360 are still competining with wiiU on the market. People will make a decisiion on if they should buy a ps3,360 or wiiU & ps3 and 360 outsold wiiU in december. More people wan't 3ds than wiiU. There are next gen consoles but not next gen markets or market generations So if last gen consoles can outsell wiiU and if they continue to then 100% of next gen means little..

Seeing how nintendo is losing the people who were the back bone of wiis success to the iphone market they tried to bring a tablet and so far soccer moms are saying "meh" or "what is even about?"..

Nintendo should have luanch with a Just Dance U.

Now ninty wants the hardcore also.. Ps4 and 720 will make a much bigger splash with that crowd. Watch and see..

[Gr81]

As I said, its the only 8th gen console out right now..bottom line. Just like the Dreamcast had 100% of the market at one time. I'm not saying Wii U will be dreamcasted..I'd be willing to bet that that honor would go towards the Vita.

In any case, I'm not sure the other gen 8 consoles you speak of will make as big a splash as your imagining. In fact why would they? Answer me that? All things considered equal, they will be more powerful right? Which equates to higher price tags right? Does that mean game prices increase as well? In this economy?

Mark my words here; The games industry is in for a rude awakening once every gen 8 console is on the market. Spreadsheets will be bleeding.

[jmc8888]

How?

PC's have the advantage of using 700-1500 watts. Gives the end user the option to what they want.

Do they want onboard video? Do they want an ultra low end card? How about the GTX 650? Do they want the GTX 660ti? 670? 680? 690? 670 SLI? 670 tri sli? 690 SLI?

The fact is consoles are limited based on how many watts they want to draw and what the current tech is able to squeeze out of that watt level.

The Wii U is the most bang for the buck tech wise. If you want more power, then be prepared to utilize exponential more power and money to achieve them.

The problem is, they want the console to be CHEAPER than last time. Which is funny considering the dollar has lost 2/3rd's of it's value since 2005. Which means a 700 dollar console is 'cheaper' than what an XBOX 360 launched at $399.

They are also adding in an kinect 2 and hand manipulator. Well that adds about $100 to a consoles cost or so. Would you rather that be spent on better components?

So where is all this power going to come from when they want it to be cheaper than last round with a far devalued dollar with over a hundred dollars of add-ons that didn't exist last round at a time when tech is stagnating and needs more wattage and multiple units to progress yet they are decreasing wattage for reliability reasons (see RROD)all in the backdrop of being in the greatest depression mankind has ever faced?

How will the PS4 and 720 make a splash when the PC already has something better out, in 2011 then what the PS4/720 would be if it launched in 2014? (let alone what PC's could do then)

PS2 still outsold the 360 when it launched, or do you forget that?

[solid_warlord]

"Wii U has 100% of the market share atm."

hahahaha lol if thats the case then im guessing PS3/XBOX360 havent sold a single copy of software and hardware...hahahaha what a clown.

These nintendo clowns have have been swinging there heads more than there wiimote for too long to realise that the wiiU is turning out to be a dissapointment. Unlike the original wii, the wii u doesnt have that feeling of New and excitment that the wii brought to the table(while it lasted).

Wii U just feels like another tablet but this time with a control buttons but unlike a tablet it isnt portable, u cant take it an play it in a train or a bus and most of the time u will be choosing to look at ur tv's rather than a small screen controller.

The battery life is far below any tablet in the market. Added to that, theres no game that u can get excited about. The games are a quick port from xbox360 and yet cost upto £15 more for the same game on xbox360/ps3.

Once true Next Gen system from M$/$ony arrives, its gonna be more difficult for devs to port games from next gen system as they would be graphicaly well ahead. Alot of devs just wont spend the time and money to downgrade for a sytem that is unworthy.

Nintendo will face the same dilemma as the original Wii did in its third year of existance. Wii U owners will only look forward to Mario and nintendo exclusves games...u wont see the next GTA's, Half Life's, crysis, Mass effect's and other big name titles that surely or possibly make an appearence next gen.

Sorry Nintys, its back to Capturing princess peach all over again where ever she may be in the galaxy.

[jmc8888]

He said NEXT GEN market share. He is entirely correct. Hint: Besides learning to read, realize that when there is no one else, you by default have 100 percent of the marketshare.

If you mean 'true next gen' technology, well PC's have had that for years. So it's already here. It's already better than what the PS4/720 will have.

Hey I'll buy the PS4/720, but they will be less powerful than my current PC rig.

Won't see GTA? Are you smoking crack? Or because GTA V which takes years to make won't make the initial release you are assuming that means the series will never be on the Wii U?

Why won't Crysis? Oh because Crysis 3, made by Crytek a division of EA is crapping their pants at Crysis 2 not making any money, and doesn't want EA to shut down Crytek, thus they won't launch a game on a console (any console) that is new and can't sell enough to make it's money back. That's a 'new console' problem, not a 'Wii U' problem. You might want to refresh yourself about ps2/xbox games that came out ONLY for those systems AFTER 360 and/or PS3 came out. It happened. It'll happen again.

Mass Effect won't come out on the WIi U? Because MEIII didn't come out for Wii U? Or at this point are you just pulling stuff out of where the sun don't shine?

You really think that the Wii U won't be able to drive next gen games...here's a hint, even the 360/PS3 can. You see it already with Crysis 2 and Battlefield 3. You also don't realize that the GPU of the PS4/720 will be very similar, i.e. capable of running the same stuff and made with the same basic base. How hard is it to understand that all next gen consoles will utilize a GPGPU, so no it'll be EASIER to port from a PS4/720 game to Wii U then it is to port a PS3/360 game to Wii U, and it isn't very hard to do that.

I game all systems and PC, so I can spot the fanboys from a mile away. Might want to read up on the facts first.

By the way, if you think any of these consoles will top a mid range PC you will be very disappointed. A GTX 670 will run circles around any of the next gen consoles. Let alone a GTX 690 in SLI OR whatever cards are out when the system comes out. 790 SLI??? 890 SLI???

The power supply of a PS4 or 720 couldn't run even one GTX 690. Because it'll only draw 250 watts or so. Not 300+ which is what a single card needs to run.

[1upgamer99]

I am not worried about the Wii U. It has sold more than 360 and PS3 same time frame. Also the sales are based on a release with no real flagship game. NSMB is great, but I do not consider it to be a flagship title, like a 3D Mario, Super Smash Bros, Zelda, Metroid, Starfox, Sin and Punishment. Nintendo is teasing a new horror game that I think sounds pretty cool too. http://www.relyonhorror.com...
What Nintendo Needs is to release a few must have games before other next gen consoles release.

[EddieNX]

Not concerned about what these so called ''analysts'' think about wiiu , they always end up wrong. They say the ps vita will crush the 3DS and wii , DS and 3DS would never sell priot to launch. They're idiots.

Nintendo try's to be unique. But if you think Nintendo is just ''Nieche'' maybe you need to take a look at the sale of Mario , Mario kart and pokemon.

NSMB wii has sold more than CoD MW3 on all platforms. Not exactly what I would call ''nieche''.

NSMBU has sold 500K in japan alone and like 1M + worldwide. It will keep on selling for a couple of years and will most likely sell about 15-20M as Nintendo will jeep re printing and promoting it and eventually they will do a price dropped NSMBU bundle. Calling it now...

[WiigotU]

So when the new systems come out at double the wiiu price are we to believe that they'll just fly off the shelf. You can bash one company and praise another all you want but I doubt people who purchase consoles will shift to more expensive equipment when great games are coming out for there old systems. The only way for sony and microdsoft to sell millions of new systems is to stop producing great software on there old ones. If i'm nintendo why am i dropping the price on my system when the others with this oh so powerful tech has to be sold higher.

[jmc8888]

Everyone thinks they can cram $2000 dollars worth of PC GPU performance (minus everything else) that uses 1000 or more watts (just the cards) and will be able to put that in a console that uses ~250 watts for under $500.

People just don't think. They assume. They don't know that computer tech has stagnated for the last decade as they reach further and further down to the single atom level. They once thought a decade ago that the Pentium 4 would take Intel to the 10 ghz barrier LOL.

Instead they got to 3.6 ghz and crapped their pants. 10 years or more later and most computers are still around there.

Thus they don't understand that just because time goes by, things don't get better like they used to. You need more power and to scale it up with more cores, more graphics cards, split the processes up so you have CUDA cores, hyperthreading, etc.

That's where our performance comes from, not raw clock speed. So people blindly think that the next playstation and xbox are going to be 'godly' because....why exactly?

They can't put in more 250 watts or so, because 310 and pushing tech limits in 2005 brought you....Red Ring of Death and $1 billion dollar repair charge.

They can't use multiple graphics cards. (well they COULD if they were low end 50 watts suckers).

Then you add to that they are putting a Kinect 2 and hand manipulator in with every Xbox 720 from the start, you understand...hey, for that same or lower price as last time around, you are now going to have $100 or more of that be not in powerful components but instead a Kinect 2 and hand manipulator, you understand that there is less $$$ to purchase higher quality components.

Add to that they want it to cost less (yet the dollar is 2/3 devalued since 2005) AND they don't want to take a loss on the console, unlike in 2006 when Sony took ~$270 loss on every console sold.

SO people are expecting fantasy, but will be delivered reality instead.

Lots of companies that make games on the PS3/360, won't be able to initially make games on the PS4/720. It costs a lot of money to produce games. So a lot of companies will continue to make PS3/360 games just like a lot continued to make PS2/xbox games when the 360 and PS3 came out.

[RevXM]

So you acknowledge consoles having cutting edge tech in 05, but say they wont now because now all of a sudden they cant afford it and they have to worry about power consumption?

Well.... How much have really changed since 05 til today that would not only suggest as a possibility but be a dead on given that they wont make a powerhouse console???

I remember articles about ps3 consumng five times the power of a refridgirator but that didnt stop it from selling.
Besides consoles are custom design, so even with pretty hefty spec they would use less than a equally specced pc doing the same thing. Also because a system have a 1000watts psu doesnt mean it is a damn power drainer because hardware adjusts itself for the task its given to save power and that type of tech have come really far so I bet that effiecency will be talked about left and right when ps4 and xbxox 3 comes around no matter how powerful the spec may be.

[dkgshiz]

I'm waiting for a good two years on the wii u. There is nothing in the horizon for many months that justify an immediate purchase. Rayman Legends in Feb is all I can think of. Even that game though I don't think is worth $60.

[neogeo]

It needs a megaton game. Something that will keep us gamers up at night in a cold sweat thinking about buying the system. Either a new IP or a super impressive Metroid all new and fresh. I just need a reason.I want a reason. GIVE ME A REASON NINTENDO!!!

[ozzywazzy]

uhh Pikmin? or rayman? Who am I kidding... This consoles projected lineup is awful.

[mamotte]

So, if the WiiU sold better than the PS3 and the 360, and is doomed, then the PS3 and 360 should be doomed by now.

[wiiulee]

lol the same way 3ds loss market share after a price cuts...these silly haters...nintendo knows what they are doing and wiiu is ahead to stay

[CouldHaveYelledUiiW]

Everyone had better worry... Even Apple's sales have dropped.

The saying with many Stock Market Analysts is "As Apple, so goes the US.”

If Apple isn't selling that well (as well), currently, I am concerned for the new technology that is about to be released (720 & PS4).

Actually, I just hope the best for the electronic market worldwide (Since we all are connected).

Anyway, the article says that Nintendo's more expensive new system is doing good, despite all of the Haters.

The game sells could be due to the world's financial condition and the Black WiiU's more expensive price point and-

...Do we have the data on the Digital Downloads yet?