Nintendo is heading for a crash

It all started with the final years of the Wii. I like the Wii. Heck, I LOVE the Wii, even including those "casual" motion-control games like Wii Sports. It's a fun system with a unique set of games. However, I began to have my doubts about 2 years ago when Super Mario Galaxy 2 launched. See, I like the SMG games. I do. They're great. However, it didn't make much sense to me: why would Nintendo make a second SMG game when games like New Super Mario Bros Wii or Mario Kart Wii sold so much more? I didn't understand. Then they began making games like Metroid Other M, and that made no sense at all.

"Okay, Nitendo," I thought. "You're going to make a new Metroid game, but YOU aren't actually making, and it's a 3rd person action/sidescrolling/whatever hybrid with all of the exploration completely gutted from the game? Okaaaaaay".

And then the 3DS was announced. Admittedly, I was pretty pumped. How could a sequel to the DS be a bad thing? The DS is awesome! But then I began to see the games Nintendo was focusing on. Luigi's Mansion 2? Another 3D Mario game? Pilotwings?

I was stumped.

I'm not in charge of Nintendo, but I imagine they like money, and they like being successful. I'm not suggesting that Nintendo should milk the crap out of their franchises, but you'd think that if tens of millions of people are buying such-and-such game (as was the case with Mario Kart Wii, NSMB, and NSMBWii), you would focus on those sort of games, right?

I guess not.

I thought Nintendo got the memo when they announced New Super Mario Bros 2 for 3DS. FINALLY! Another Mario game. Another SIDESCROLLING Mario game. This should be great, right? Well, not so much. While it is a decent game, it feels very recycled. They didn't even make any new music tracks. Pretty much all the music comes from NSMBWii. Huh? And the world themes are all the same: lava, jungle, ice, desert, and so forth. Why couldn't Nintendo put more effort into it? I mean, it makes sense, right? If you have a franchise that has been selling over 20 million games a pop, you would want each and every new one to be phenomenal, right?

I guess not.

NSMB U is the same deal. While I have not beaten the entire thing, and while I am enjoying the time I've spent playing it, the game feels very recycled. I wish Nintendo would invest the same effort they gave to the Galaxy games into the NSMB series.

It's not that Nintendo is making bad games. Their games are good, but the games that they're investing all of their time, effort, and passion into are the WRONG GAMES. Take the Legend of Zelda series as an example. We had Twilight Princess on the Wii (admittedly, a Gamecube carry-over). And then we got Skyward Sword, a game that hasn't even sold 3.5 million worldwide. Then Ocarina of Time was remade on the 3DS, and what happened? No one bought it. And now Nintendo is making ANOTHER Zelda game on the Wii U. You know what, Nintendo? It's obvioous that fewer and fewer people are buying Zelda. Why not try to do a "New" reboot like you did with Mario? Do a top-down "New Legend of Zelda" that focuses on the action and adventure instead of talking to NPCs, doing fetch quests, and solving puzzles. See what happens. The same goes for a lot of these other games Nintendo has announced. Luigi's Mansion 2? Pikmin 3? Okay, those franchises aren't bad, but Nintendo seems to have their priorities mixed up.

In my opinion, if Nintendo keeps this up, they're going to quickly be in troubled waters. While the 3DS is selling okay, it isn't selling nearly as well as it should, considering its cost of manufacture. It's way too early to determine how the Wii U is selling, but it should be obvious (based on the PS3's launch) that the first wave of sales are not indicitive of a platform's success). I don't mind the new games that Nintendo is making. I like them. They're fun, but I wish Nintendo would put more effort into the franchises that are quite obviously selling to a lot more people.

This isn't a matter of "Nintendo should only make what is popular and ignore the lower-selling games". I'm not asking Nintendo to be Activision. What I'm asking is for Nintendo to stop ignoring the 32 million people who bought Mario Kart Wii. We have not seen a new console Mario Kart in years. Obviously, Nintendo feels perfectly fine releasing multiple franchise games on one console. We got two 3D Marios on the Wii. We got two 3D Zeldas. We got two Metroids. Why not two Mario Karts when that game sold more than BOTH 3D Marios and BOTH Zeldas COMBINED? Why did Nintendo phone it in with NSMB U (a game that WAS just going to be a "play as your Mii" cash-in when it was first announced, if people can remember that far back) when it's obvious the NSMB games sell in the tens of millions? I don't want Nintendo to do poorly. I don't want the 3DS nor the Wii U to do poorly. I just want Nintendo to make good games, and they seem to be focusing on the wrong sort of games these days.

Give your thoughts below, but I think that Nintendo is in hot water right now, and if they don't change their focus, the Wii U might be another N64 or Gamecube (which were the dark days of the company).

[DragonKnight]

Nintendo knows they can phone in their games and still have the good sales and the rabid fanboys defending them. They've been doing it for years and years. It's not going to change any time soon either.

[dedicatedtogamers]

It may change sooner than you think.

The 3DS is doing...okay, but considering it is their current-gen handheld (which has ALWAYS sold in amazing numbers, other than the Virtual Boy) it is selling very poorly. In addition, games like NSMB2 and Mario Kart 7 are selling poorly compared to how other games in the franchise. What does that tell me? It tells me that even the "Nintendo faithful" are getting tired of being jerked around.

[DragonKnight]

I predict that Nintendo will continue with their Evergreen style of progress. They milk the same stuff for as long as possible, until interest has either reached a peak or has waned completely. Then and only then will they move on. And I say move on because they don't really take a step forward, they take steps to the side. They are a strong proponent of taking pre-existing ideas and reusing them in different ways.

The 3DS is an answer to what Sony started with 3D and also an answer to dual analog sticks on a handheld with their own version. The Wii U is Nintendo's answer to the Wii having 3rd party support. This is what they do, and this is what they will keep doing because they get the sales that way. People give Nintendo a free pass because of how long they've been around, and I don't see that changing.

If NSMB2 and Mario Kart 7 are selling poorly, they won't reinvent the series, they will simply look at past ideas that worked and reimplement them. It's how they are able to get away with making the same game over and over and over and convincing everyone that it's something unique and different.

Nintendo have been the type to, if they see an audience that doesn't like their lack of risk or real progression, just simply target a different audience that lets them get away with minimal effort and maximum profit.

[dedicatedtogamers]

@ DragonKnight

Agreed. You've made several good points.

Honestly, I wouldn't MIND if Nintendo was rehashing gameplay ideas as long as they were providing new, interesting content. Or at the least, a LOT of content.

Let's take the 2d Mario games, for instance. Why is it limited to only 8 worlds? Why are we stuck in the same desert/jungle/sky/ice worlds? Yes, occasionally Nintendo will go back and re-do "Big World" or something like that, but for the most part they recycle content while trying to force new ways of playing that same content on us.

Skyward Sword is an excellent example: same boring, easy combat and the same puzzles and the same items, but THIS time you use Motion+...

NSMB U is another example: same desert/sky/ice levels, but THIS time you can add blocks to the level using the WiiU tablet...

[DragonKnight]

I would personally like a complete redesign of Mario. Hell, take at least ONE risk with him. He's been the same for almost 30 years now so I think we get the idea. Just try SOMETHING new. Make an edgy Mario game, or let someone else do it and say "we're just letting someone try out a different approach with Mario" so that Nintendo doesn't look so bad. But man, that will never happen. Nintendo are afraid of doing anything new with their franchises. It's such a shame. They found the "right" formula with Super Mario Bros. 3 and just went with it from then on.

[OmniSlashPT]

Nintendo is afraid of taking risks. They have the same franchises for the past 25 years, they've barely changed at all. They still sell, so no problem for Nintendo. And people and critics (somehow) still praised them.

Sony and MS support new devs, the indie market, new IP's, reboots, etc... Nintendo just keeps on launching Marios.

Nintendo doesn't change because they dont need to change. As long as it keeps selling, they will keep doing it. Nintendo did nothing this gen. When you think of games that defined this gen, you think of Portal, Bioshock, AC, Uncharted, Mass Effect, Batman, etc... SMG was a great game, but that's it. Its not even fresh as much as people try to make it.

But as you said, Nintendo's target audience is fed up. The casual market doesnt care about gimmicks anymore, they want tablets and gadgets, no more motion controllers. And even Mario/Zelda fans are tired when there are 4 Mario games announced at E3. That's just TOO much.

Nintendo survived this gen because of the casual market. Not because they had the best hardware, the best games, the best apps or the best innovations. Motion controls and family games were already done back in the PS2 era. Nintendo just explored it the right way. Was that good? Sure, for them. But was it good for gaming? No.

The last great Nintendo IP was Pikmin. And that's shocking when for example Sony has 2 huge new IPs coming next year.

[runtheplacered]

Nintendo doesn't take risks? You're wrong. The thing is, they take their risks with consoles and handhelds. Taking risks with hardware is far more risky than taking a risk with their software. It's not even disputable.

I'm sorry, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

[DivineHand125]

The reason Nintendo doesn't feel the need to invest the same resources in the new super Mario series as they do in the big 3D Mario games is because it is not necessary. Those 2D Mario games are targeted at children and to them its the best thing ever. I remember back in the day when I was a child, those flash games on cartoonnetwork.com were enough to keep me and my friends entertained.

Also you cannot compare the sales of their current gen handheld and games to their previous handhelds because those handhelds launched into a time much different than today. Today we have a much worst economy, more distractions such as Facebook, YouTube, netflix, smart phones, tablets etc. Back then none of these things existed in the same form it is today.

I'm not a Huge Nintendo fan but i don't think that any game Sony or Microsoft releases next year will have any significant effect on the wiiU since when the next smash bros, mario kart, 3D Mario or Zelda gets announced/Launched, you will see a mountain fans come in droves to get their hands on a wiiU.

[dedicatedtogamers]

But here is the big "what if"...

What if we DON'T see a mountain of fans buy the WiiU for those games?

We certainly didn't see them line up for NSMB2 on 3DS, nor Mario Kart 7, nor Ocarina of Time. It's too early to tell, but I don't see that mountain of fans lining up for NSMB U.

And that's what worries me. Why is Nintendo beginning to lose sales on those easy, huge-selling franchises like Mario Kart and 2d Mario? Those games SHOULD be selling the hardware like crazy, but they aren't.

I'm wondering why.

[DivineHand125]

Its too early to tell how well the wiiU or its games are selling since it hasn't been out for even a month yet.

Also the Mario Kart ds and new super Mario bros ds didn't sell 22m and 28m respectively all in one year. I remember when people used to complain when they saw those two games in the NPD top ten from time to time for years and if you compare the yearly averages for Mario Kart DS, you will see that Mario Kart 7 is actually selling better than the DS version.

As for the Ocarina of Time, I can understand why that didn't enjoy huge sales since the original only sold 7.6m(going by vgchartz) and since then it has been re-released on the GC and on the Wii.

Their is always a chance that both the wiiU and the 3DS can fail but since non of us can predict the future, as Nintendo fans we should try to be optimistic that Nintendo will continue to be financially successful so that they can keep making the games we enjoy for years to come.

[SilentNegotiator]

The way I see it, the Wii/DS era is going to be their best. Beating that would be......oh my, quite a feat. To the point that I don't see ANYONE* doing it, other than slightly with the absolute perfect storm. So long as they do better than Gamecube, I think they'll do fine....they might just have to do some adjusting coming down from that high.

*yeah, ps2 sold better than Wii, but overall with console and handheld (wii/DS)...no one has done that.

[Picnic]

Nintendo hasn't excited me since Super Mario Galaxy came out.

The WiiU is kind of to the Wii what the SNES was to NES or the Gamecube was to the N64.

If you were to make a crude approximation on the basis of the sales figures of those consoles, you might expect the WiiU to sell about 2 thirds what the Wii did which would still be a roaring success for Nintendo as it would be between 65 and 70 million consoles.

However all of those previous consoles were launched relatively early in the generation, not at a point where it's not clear where it's at the end of the generation or the start of the next one. With the Dreamcast, Sega had its recent history an new entrant Sony counting against it. With the WiiU Nintendo will have curious timing of a console that doesn't blow away the tech specs of its rivals - or what we expect of the next generation - to contend with.

But when everyone's selling their consoles in Asda and Tesco, in bright white conditions next to the washing powder, the WiiU may look rather more attractive than it might in the dedicated game shops.

[Buenoblue83]

All developers just recycle the same games and ideas. They just have the sense to change the names. Cod is surely the same as moh on ps1 and going right back to doom on pc. Uncharted is tombraider from ps1 rebranded. Many of the biggest games now are using age old design and gameplay concepts, just prettier. Not moaning, I love these games, just sayin.

[ShaunCameron]

Exactly. There's nothing new under the sun. What is considered innovative now probably was some novel idea that didn't fully get off the ground back then.

The Wii U is not that far removed from what Nintendo tried to do with the GameCube and GameBoy Advance.

[porkChop]

Here's the thing about Nintendo. They care about 1 thing, and 1 thing only. Money. That's it. That's why they've been recycling the same games and the same tired ideas for decades. They're afraid of taking risks because there's a chance it will fail and they won't make any money.

So they just keep doing the same thing over, and over, and over again, each time giving you slightly different ways to do things. Nintendo has some great franchises. Zelda, Mario, and Metroid have so much potential. They could all be such amazing games if Nintendo would just take some risks for once and do something fresh. They have the ability to push gaming forward, but they don't. They just sit back, play it safe, and rake in the cash.

[fatstarr]

*sony, Sony is heading for a crash.
you see facts and choose to make a nintendo version thats not gonna happen when a sony crash is coming

Zelda is a key franchise that rates highly.
that series has never been about sales, never not one bit.
its about the story, the detail and the atmosphere.

Nintendo is doing quite well, you forget the countless IP's they own
they are banking on mario because mario sells no matter what.

[MacDonagh]

Hmm. Good blog that raises some interesting points, but I must cordially disagree with you on a couple. I will quote some of the lines from the article and offer an alternative view.

"Okay, Nitendo," I thought. "You're going to make a new Metroid game, but YOU aren't actually making, and it's a 3rd person action/sidescrolling/whatever hybrid with all of the exploration completely gutted from the game? Okaaaaaay".

This isn't the first time that Nintendo has allowed a second developer to have a crack at an established franchise. Retro Studios for instance were allowed to take a shot at the Metroid franchise and came out with the Prime series. There have been instances were using a second developer hasn't worked out. Rare coming out with Starfox Adventures would be an instance of a risk not paying off, much like the Team Ninja's Other M. Allowing another company to try out an established franchise is always risky, but it sometimes pays off by giving a new perspective to a series.

"It's not that Nintendo is making bad games. Their games are good, but the games that they're investing all of their time, effort, and passion into are the WRONG GAMES. Take the Legend of Zelda series as an example. We had Twilight Princess on the Wii (admittedly, a Gamecube carry-over). And then we got Skyward Sword, a game that hasn't even sold 3.5 million worldwide. Then Ocarina of Time was remade on the 3DS, and what happened? No one bought it. And now Nintendo is making ANOTHER Zelda game on the Wii U."

Skyward Sword was a game that was supervised by Miyamoto, to allow a new team to gain experience with working with a console. The director, Hidemaro Fujibayashi for instance had only done Zelda games for the handheld market. Ocarina of Time has also been re-re-released a number of times, but still sold reasonably well at around about 2.5 million units. That's not too bad for a game that's a remake from 98.

"I don't mind the new games that Nintendo is making. I like them. They're fun, but I wish Nintendo would put more effort into the franchises that are quite obviously selling to a lot more people."

Their franchises are the singular reason why Nintendo has survived for so long. Nintendo has suffered from a distinct lack of support since the days of the N64 and I am fairly certain that they aren't going to butcher their own IPs to make a quick buck. The one thing that you can say about Nintendo is that you should never ever underestimate them. It will be interesting to see what they come out with later on.