Software like XSI and Maya can already render photo realistic environments (with long render times per frame) so it's just a matter of time before the same results can be achieved in real time by an advanced game engine. I don't think it's as far away as 20 years.
The other big hurdle is asset creation time. Will game artists be given enough time to create truly photo real assets? most probably not!
If the most powerful current day PC cannot render Pixar graphics in real time what makes you think the PS4 will be able to? make no mistake, the next generation of consoles will not be as powerful as a current high end PC. Technically it's totally possible, but financially they will not go there.
It is very possible, there are a few custom crysis levels that look almost real, and some crysis 2 mods that are nearly photorealistic. Here are some pics from a crysis 2 mod
yes and people said that there were only going to be a few computers per country. And you know how that went. Heck a computer smaller than a car was unheard of at one point.
One thing people need to do is never underestimate technology.
Yeah, I've seen some games/mods that look VERY lifelike. The most recent Crysis was very good, and there's a GTA3 mod that seems to be all texture/fx swaps that is gorgeous. Personally, I think we'll fast approach getting "near" lifelike graphics, using mostly tricks and lighting and design shortcuts, and that's fine; there will always be developers pushing those boundaries and others that move in the opposite direction, striving to create the UNreal. I feel like the largest barrier to graphics that emulate life is the current technological approach. The universe is not made of polygons... We need a sort of atomic/molecular graphics creation tool that utilizes formulas to emulate all the things that actually effect us, such as wind, gravity, temperature, etc. imagine instead of creating a texture for grass, or modeling each blade, as the article suggests, that you simply have a set of rules for your grass program to follow, so each blade (comprised of digital atoms) would respond naturally to the present conditions in the digital world. Shady patches would grow less, and trampled grass would lie flat as in real life. The same type of systems would be applied to all aspects of the game world, from clothing made from actual digital thread, to clouds that have actually formed off of the digital oceans... You could advance time one million years, instantaneously, or freeze time in its tracks so that Max Payne wouldnt have to mow the grass every few missions. Of course, creating digital atoms and digital single cell organisms and digital evolution of the human race begins to bleed into creating actual life, where the subjects inside the world could not tell the difference. Imagine the insane aliens and creatures that would create themselves if simplistic digital organisms were allowed to evolve for a billion years on a hostile planet. Or think of how scary hunting a dinosaur that actually feared for its life (without following a set of programmed responses) would be. The graphics and ACTUAL reality of a digital world are inextricably linked. Once you make the objects of a digital world real, they will have no choice but to appear so, as they will in fact be real. And I'm surprised that nobody has tried NURBS in videogames, although perhaps that's a processing issue. I recall reading a rumor prior to the PSP's release that it would employ them instead of polygons, which never happened, and that was 5-6 years ago...
Even ten years is a huge leap.
I mean in ten years or so we got from
http://www.google.co.uk/sea...
To
http://i583.photobucket.com...
Its a HUGE leap!
The other big hurdle is asset creation time. Will game artists be given enough time to create truly photo real assets? most probably not!
I think he uses this phrase too frequently...
http://www.abload.de/img/sc...
http://www.abload.de/img/co...
and here are pics from a mod im making
http://i.imgur.com/qC72P.jp...
http://i.imgur.com/mAdu9.jp...
http://i.imgur.com/woRds.jp...
One thing people need to do is never underestimate technology.
http://www.youtube.com/watc...
Of course, creating digital atoms and digital single cell organisms and digital evolution of the human race begins to bleed into creating actual life, where the subjects inside the world could not tell the difference. Imagine the insane aliens and creatures that would create themselves if simplistic digital organisms were allowed to evolve for a billion years on a hostile planet. Or think of how scary hunting a dinosaur that actually feared for its life (without following a set of programmed responses) would be. The graphics and ACTUAL reality of a digital world are inextricably linked. Once you make the objects of a digital world real, they will have no choice but to appear so, as they will in fact be real.
And I'm surprised that nobody has tried NURBS in videogames, although perhaps that's a processing issue. I recall reading a rumor prior to the PSP's release that it would employ them instead of polygons, which never happened, and that was 5-6 years ago...