Morpheus a “Really Bad Idea for Sony,” but PS4 Will Be a “Wild Success” According to Michael Pachter

Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter shared his opinion about Sony’s Project Morpheus, and the crystal ball holder extraordinaire seem not to be very enthusiastic about the commercial value of the idea. On the other hand he's definitely a believer in PS4's success.

[PoSTedUP]

we dont know if it will be a big market or not, that depends on price and how sony and OR market VR, and the content. hes pretty wrong that devs wont support a small market with dedicated games bc the OR is getting a really good ammount of dedicated support and look how small it is right now. plus great devs are already on board the P.Morph, so him saying that its not going to sell without content and devs wont support it if it doesnt sell is off in a sense bc it already seems that it will have content.

3D didnt get much game support (from what i remember), and you had to buy a whole new tv (and a pretty expensive one, early on) so i think the comparison is kind of ridiculous, Sony is aiming for $250-300. VR seems so much cooler and more appealing than 3D, and at a much cheaper price point...

i feel it is a good move. im NOT saying it is a gimmick, but, the simple fact that even gimmicks make money, too, is a thing to consider as well, imo.

[iamnsuperman]

It really depends on 3 things:

Price
Support
Function outside of gaming

Price and support go hand in hand. If the price it too high less people will buy it and so less support. Also people wont buy it if there is no support.

But I feel the last factor is the most important. If the thing does become 250-300 it needs to be compatible with other things. It might sound bizarre and not really using the tech to its full potential but these things need to be compatible with set to boxes or devices that can provide visual content (be it phones, tablets....). The problem is that kind of money for a product means people will want to use it in more the one way because it will be competing with TVs and TVs have a lot more uses to them when it comes to connecting to other devices and being apart of the social experience (something, especially the latter, these VR headsets really can't do)

[christrules0041]

I agree except for your last part. Why would I want my phone or tablet to be able to connect to it? I don't wanna read or type anything an inch from my face.

Youtube videos, netflix, tv shows and games are where people can really use this device.

[TomShoe]

Morpheus will do just fine.

Sony only needs to realize that this is a SIDE project and that it will be done ON THE SIDE.

[nicksetzer1]

I'd say morpheus is a horrible idea "for sony." If VR ends up flopping that is going to be a huge loss (just like their tv's laptops, etc) and it will probably put forth the end of sony. Which is not good, no matter your stance in the console "wars."

[Rainstorm81]

@nnick

I doubt Sony is betting the entire company on a VR headset.....it is a peripheral after all....the main product would be the PS4

[nicksetzer1]

@rain You do realize in order to do this, they must fully develop the hardware and software, find a manufacturer, ship the product, market the product, pay their first party teams as well as 3rd party teams to implement it into their games (to preempt support for it) and hope that the defect rate is VERY low.
.
.
I get that the reality causes lots of downvotes here on neogaf, but sony isn't the most stable company financially and this is a huge investment, especially for such a gamble... that said, it could turn out great, guess time will tell

[scott182]

I think this will be a hit. Glad that Sony is on board with VR and it's coming to the PS4. Very exciting. It will be fun to use!

[tbone567]

Sony VR is gonna fail. Just going by past history. I see Morpheus and can't help but think move, vita, pspgo, psp phone, wonderbook and six axis and psp vita tv.

[NewMonday]

remember Michael Pachter saying the original Wii would flop?
____________________

"Function outside of gaming"

this is the most important thing, it needs to target and capture the general consumer, the success depends on this.

from interviews Sony seem to know this.

[justSumDood]

It never ceases to amaze how so many people can form an "opinion" (and I use the word loosely) on something they know nothing about and have never experienced. Use VR just one time, then come back here and post your comments (I already know what they'll be) and at least they'll have some validity.

The one andonly thing that will play a part in VR's success is exposure (even at that, it's only a matter of time.) It only takes one proper VR experience to make people believers.

Short term it will spread like wildfire. Long term it will affect and invade every aspect of our personal and social lives.

I've never been so sure of anything in all my life. If Oculus was a publicly traded company I would not hesitate to throw my entire life savings behind them.

[Larry L]

100% agree with SumDood. I've only used Oculus once (an up to date version, not an old version), got to play....or experience I should say.....a few "games" and I fully believe this technology (though it's really just old tech, now just mastered enough and cheap enough to go to mass market). This is the future of fantasy immersion until hologram/holograph technology is mastered and public and we can start working on real life Holo-Decks for "gaming". But that's a long time off. VR headset gaming could have a good 20+ year run if it all pans out.

It's not perfect tech for every kind of gaming, and retro gaming just wouldn't work aside from first person perspective games. But for quite a few genres this VR tech could just be absolutely revolutionary. Obviously FPS/RPGs, FPHorror and driving games would be the 1st genres to be magical with VR headsets, but the limits are boundless for all kinds of games like adventure, puzzlers, platformers, casual....even sports....being the QB or your favorite player, actually getting in the Octagon and fighting GSP or Royce Gracie.......... a new Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!! anyone? Yeah......you thought he was scary on NES? LOL

It's the future of gaming guys, you're just gonna have to get used to looking like a dork for a while. Don't worry, the tech will be wrapped in a pair of Blu-Blockers within a generation or two.

[Angeljuice]

"PS4 will be a wild success" that's really going out on a limb with crazy predictions. After all, who else could have made that call after such a rocky start?
Pachter must be some kind of genius time-travelling wizard. /S

[Rainstorm81]

Prior to launch he bet his money on the X1 right on Pach Attack on Gametrailers

Now he states the obvious, because it obvious .....SMH @ Pachter

[hellzsupernova]

yeah it is a big risk, unless they make it compatible with pc, and with their playstation now service.

Hopefully they realise that playstation needs to be everywhere not just on one platform and Morpheus to succeed needs to be everywhere possible.

Maybe if they make it a requirement for games in the first person eg Battlefield, Battlefront, Call of Duty, The Elder Scrolls, Fallout, War Thunder all driving games etc then i see it being rather successful

[jhoward585]

I have faith that VR will be a success. if it doesn't it because the industry failed us. Not because we didn't except it which I think we will like VR if its done right.

Also, I think most people are hung up about the past. True VR wasn't feasible back then with past technologies; today it is. So there's no excuse.

besides, there is no other technology out there we can use for entertainment in the near future so VR has to work. Its the only technologies that can bring the immersion we all dream of.

VR is not a gimmick because its just using basic laws of physic.So I don't know why people keep saying VR is a gimmick.

[Muzikguy]

I agree completely about 3D and tbh I'm glad the fad seems to be pretty much over. VR could very well be the next big thing. My only skepticism is content. Not lack of it, more like variety. Games are one thing but doing the same thing in VR over and over and over again would be more annoying than the rehashes we already get. (Think cod, madden, all open world games) I'm excited for it though

[PoSTedUP]

me too. i think it can also open up new doors as far as games go. plus indie devs are already bringing a lot of different kinds of experiences. i can onlyimagine what AAA devs can o with a bigger budget. even tho im most excited for FPS, open world and racers atm.

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

Man, everything that is outside the tried and true is a "really bad idea" according to Micheal Pachter. So no surprise on his stance here.

[Allsystemgamer]

Funny thing is the tired and true were once outlandish ideas that people once thought would fail.

[Hicken]

As far as I'm concerned, the world is still flat.

[Orange]

And his analysis of the past doesn't seem that sound.

"Pachter continued by explaining that gamers have demonstrated not to be very interested in peripherals with the exception of Kinect, so they’re probably not going to buy Morpheus en masse"

Do a lot of people still care about Kinect, or would they rather have the $100 off?

[oof46]

Regardless of our disinterest in the Kinect, it did sell well.

[panbit86]

VR snatching wigs confirmed! LOL

[xhi4]

Why does this guy even have a job still? If an economist's predictions were as bad as this guy they would've been out of a job on the first day, yet this guy still gets hits. Sigh.

[Kenshin_BATT0USAI]

Hate to be the one to say it, but he's actually usually right. Besides that, your question is your answer? Why does he still have his job? Because he's doing it right.

[RPG_Lover]

He is right, VR is a bad move and the PS4 will be successful.

[Darth Gamer]

I also agree. I think that this is a fad that will get little support and follow in the footsteps of the move. (of which I bought into BTW) except this one will cost a great deal more. I will be waiting to see how this turns out though cause I do not have that famous crystal ball everyone talks about. lol

[Darth Gamer]

I think Sony should have seen what the Oculus Rift fared and then played accordingly.

[thejigisup]

If occulus offered crap but Sony knew they could blow it out of the water consumers might have a sour taste in their mouth about vr. If occulus knocks it out of the park Sony is left in the dust as far as content and development of hw is concerned. Sony is a major player in the tech world and has partnered with NASA. I have a feeling that only thing holding vr back for Sony is proper advertising. They've honestly been lacking in that dept for a while. Look at the vita, a fantastic piece of hardware with decent to excellent software but the sales have much to be desired. The meat and potatoes consumer hardly knows what the vita is, how it can be used, and what kind of deal they'd be getting with a vita and a ps+ membership. They have to remember how to sell the greater public on their products while offering amazing experiences. This willgetthose initial sales and keep that attach rate up.

[Geekman]

As divided as I am on the Morpheus, I have to admit that you can't really determine this without learning more about it AND seeing how it sells within it's first two years.

[christrules0041]

I wanna see some software first and know the price. It'll be the make or break for a lot of people,

[MCTJim]

Rumors have it at $250 low and $300 high end...but there are the extras you need to make it work...move controllers and the eye and if a game is not included add the cost of a game....I cant see paying for an add on that costs as much as the system. More likely a system needs to be designed around VR tech for the avg consumer to bite as long as its cost effective and not crapware.

[MegaDan]

In other words Pachter is saying "M$ cant take enough beating, please dont bury us with the VR Headset" lol

[andibandit]

I think he's saying PS4 is already a huge success, why throw yourself into a new venture, when you're so far ahead.....how about using that RD money and push out some more games, or atleast stop firing 1 party developers.

[805Junior805]

Has this idiot ever been right about ANYTHING?

[rainslacker]

He did predict the PS4 would be a wild success....

[Allsystemgamer]

Even xbox fanboys predicted that lol

[Kenshin_BATT0USAI]

That idiot is earning a higher salary than you. So I'd argue he's probably doing something right.

[matrixman92]

I am prepared for the major disagrees this will get. But I just really feel like casual audiences wont give VR stuff a chance, especially at the asking price. It will only appeal to the most hardcore gamers and other people will simply not care at all. I strongly believe that Morpheus will be a complete flop like Move and Eye. PS4 on its own will continue to be a success though, like he said

[wsoutlaw87]

plenty of casuals buy stuff that is cool and you can show off. Things like kinect sell because you can have someone over and show them this cool new tech then they want it

[Ginesis]

Yeah but VR is mainly a single player experience that requires you to wear a clunky headset and look like a dork. Gaming still isnt considered cool to the casual crowd its just more accepted than what it used to be.

[AndrewLB]

Agreed. People who are hard core enough to spend this kind of money would more than likely just own a proper gaming PC.

[sAVAge_bEaST]

Clearly, Pachter has never tried VR, (outside of 3-D Movie's -which has z3r0 resemblance.. and should never be uttered in the same sentence.-)

Secondly, Only Generation X, and the generations that follow truly understand. Baby Boomers are Literally clue-less.

[Alex_Boro]

LOL that bait. Shut up Patcher.

[MrDead]

Whether it's the next big thing or not I admire them for taking the risk. I can't wait to give VR a blast, the last time I used it was with Duke Nukem 3D at the Future Entertainment Show in the mid 90's.

[OrangePowerz]

Not a huge fan of VR and I still have my doubts about it becoming mainstream and escape the niche market.

On the other hand I'm even less of a fan of Pachter.

[_LarZen_]

I have tested the Oculus and I was blown away. I don't know if the average gamer out there is ready for VR or not. But I am sure that if VR fails it will in the end be a loss for everyone.

[Yaay4me]

Finally some one who knows what they are talking about. VR would be a huge leap forward for gaming. Its the final frontier for not just gaming. From there technology will just keep getting better and better making the goggles smaller n smaller n the experience more believable with every advancement. Mr patcher seems very short sighted to me

[SliceOfTruth888]

I don't know who I hate more Kim kardashion or patcher...pretty sure its patcher

[youngStuan]

and while you waste all that energy hating them. they're not wasting any of theirs on you.

hate is bad for your health. let it go, bro

[MacTastic]

I am really excited for what VR has to offer. But I would also like to see it branch out from gaming because there could be a lot of cool uses for it like educational purposes. Did I mention porn as well... oops thinking out loud again.

[GW212]

No need to worry there. That was the first thing that came to mind... "Hmm, how many years until we get that? I'm guessing around 20"

[mochachino]

If all games aren't compatible it wont work.

[sarshelyam]

So you'd rather all games have some half-assed "bonus" mode rather than having games designed from the ground up to take full advantage of the hardware?

[level 360]

I think VR-tech would only occupy a small niche market in gaming so Sony really needs to find other avenues for them to sell and make "Morpheus" a success while also gaining profit.

[sarshelyam]

A bad idea? Michael, obviously, wasn't in San Francisco last week.

[JohnS1313]

If Pachter thinks it's a bad idea it will be a huge success.

[rhap]

Oh, now he says PS4 is great. Cool.

[LexHazard79]

Its gonna come down to pricing! They have the backing. @$250 -$300 its still gonna be a hard sell no matter what games are on it. You still need a PS4 and games and a camera(im pretty sure there will be a bundle of some kind).
So its not out of the realm of possibilities that this could bomb!

Thats not what I want but thats why we have to let play out before we can really come up with any conclusion.

[mixelon]

I hope Sony can get the price down enough but still sell the headset at a profit.

It would only take a couple of good Morpheus games for me to consider it worth it, or one really good one. People need to stop thinking about it so much like PS:Move or the Wii balance board. VR offers a whole load of experiences, not just alternate input methods.

.. They should totally bring back PS:Home with a graphical bump and Morpheus support.

[itisallaboutps]

she is just provocative. she always makes stupid comments just for hits.

[Bathyj]

Morpheus success confirmed.

[Yaay4me]

Lol seriously

[quenomamen]

At least theyre not forcing it on you at a higher price point per console .

[SpinalRemains138]

What's the front page on the porn front with that Morpheus thing? Virtual thighs or what?

[Funantic1]

Pachter is right. I'm not anxious for any virtual headsets. Those things are just gonna give people more acne.

[RatchetandClank]

I think vr is cool but I just dont see many people wearing this or the oculus rift. Being afraid of looking like a fool or simply prefer gaming on a big screen without a box on your face.

[Ginesis]

You're spot on!

[westzida22]

So, microsoft is developing VR tech, so is other companies as well, but Sony is the one making a mistake by doing so......Really?? LOL this Patchie guy is such a tool. Wasn't he the one saying the Ps4 was going to fail?

[Mr Marvel]

I can't see VR being anything more than a gimmick for many years.

I think both Morpheus and Oculus Rift will only sell in very small quantities meaning very few titles will be released.

I personally have no interest in VR.

Just give me great games for my PS4 that I can play on my TV.

[RatchetandClank]

Its an unpopular opinion but I definitely agree.

[chikane]

I For one hope is succeeds. maybe not in the near future but atleast 30 years from now well be playing ff 25 on a VR system and all thanks to Morpheus. -_-

[IanVanCheese]

Patcher? Really? We still listen to this guy?

I have my concerns about VR same as some, but Patcher is an idiot who says the obvious or the incorrect.

[Yaay4me]

Vertual reality is the next step in video game evolution in my opinion. I stopped caring what this guy says a long time ago. But regardless, i think VR is the solution to video game fatigue. As much as i love video games and hate admitting it, i feel there is a truth to what gamers often complain about all games being the same. VR offers the ultimate level of immersion not offered when you are an observer to something thats happening in this window we call a television. Its always neen my opinion that one day you will walk into a movie theater and experience the movie first hand. That day starts with the video game industry and vertual reality. So please mr. Patcher dont shoot down progress for the sake of a few clicks.

[xx4xx]

Exciting times.

Sony's headset is a huge risk. I just don't see how it can be sustainable or supported. This is a huge investment on their part, but will enough people purchase a $300 headset on top of a $400 console?

We'll see how it fares...buy they better hope they sell a Tom of them.

(And this is coming from someone who would buy one in a heartbeat)

(Oh...and yeah, Pachter is a moron.)

[xx4xx]

Double post.....sorry

[paulogy]

Here we go again.

Sony's silly for entering the console market.
Sony's silly for making a console with a pricey DVD drive.
Sony's silly for making a VR headset.

We'll just have to see what side of history proves to be the right one this time.

[Platinum_k]

Pachter state that? i'm curious...

[Platinum_k]

Pachter is speaking in the present... not the future.

A lot can happen within 2-3 years until VR comes out, Mr Pachter!

[elm]

Microsoft: "we've been working on VR for a while"
Patcher: "VR will be the next big thing"

The guy is a prick!

[Azzanation]

The problem with optional accessories is that not all developers will utilise it. Its why Nintendo made the Wii Remote standard so every developer will use it. MS with Kinect 2.0 did the same thing. VR will be great but only great to the few. The headset is almost half the cost of an actual next gen console.

These days most people already have great TVs, I am pretty sure they would rather just play there games on the big screen. VR will take off for PC gaming but console gaming I cant see it.

[feraldrgn]

I'm pretty sure all console manufacturers are going to be making VR headsets eventually, I don't think it's a bad idea at all.

They just have to be careful, initially, on what content they use with it.

[beebap]

I Will be buying one day one. I already have the camera but I think there will bundle with camera for people who dont for little cost extra. It still only prototype stage so I think we gona be surprised with final specs and games on offer.It not about games we play now but give us new types of experience and blow our mind with immersion. For the future and getting in at the beginning I would pay up to 400 pound for it. I dont even expect lots of games just a few really good experiences for starters and I would happily be first on my street wearing vr. Neighbours be like what is she wearing and when family and friends come round they are going to be amazed. This is the future.

[tommygunzII]

Now may be the time for VR. I have always called it out in the past as a gimmick but I think the time has come. Even the military is using it in all of our new jet fighters.

[NeloAnjelo]

I would easily give VR a shot. It really is the next step in immersion. Why have images pop out at you, when you can go into the image?

I am excited and open to trying this. Think of horror games? Or the new ideas from developers? Hopefully it won't be too expensive.

[Tito08]

I bet if Microsoft does Morpheous, best idea ever for Pachter, such an ignorant lol.

[hankmoody]

Pachter knocks both systems equally so... no.

[youngStuan]

A 300 Dollar peripheral?

No Sony, just NO!

[hankmoody]

With games costing much more to develop in this day and age, it's really risky to develop for an accessory where you're catering to a user base with a smaller attach rate. Then you have to consider that the people you're catering to might not even buy it. This is why taking your chances on something like the Kinect makes sense due to there being one included with every XB1 system. The same can be said for developing games that utilize the touch pad on the DualShock 4. Everyone who has a PS4 has the DS4 so you wouldn't necessarily be wasting your time implementing the touch pad in the game you're making. The VR tech has to be priced right if they have any hopes of succeeding with this. In my opinion, Sony should probably play it a little safer than risking their money and rep with this VR device due to their most recent financial woes. I'd also say the same thing to MS who are rumored to have something in the works themselves. I would however be interested in seeing what a VR headset/ Kinect enabled game could do and if it would work.

[Duke19]

Gotta commend Sony for trying to advance the genre - someone always has to take the risk.

That said, I can definitely see this not being a huge commercial success - going to really need some killer apps to get people to pay out the likely 300+ price tag for a console specific peripheral.

I only think this will be a "bad idea" for sony if they really handle it poorly - but right now they seem to doing just about everything else right

[smashcrashbash]

Ever notice everything Sony does is a bad idea? Blu Ray was a bad idea.PSN was a bad idea.The PS3 was a bad idea.Home was a bad idea.No matter what they make is a bad idea no matter what.But as long as it comes from someone else it's 'give it a chance' and constant tears if you don't.

[Bdub2000]

Just another gimmick...

[Silent_Radiance]

Pachter said it was a bad idea? This is wonderful news, Sony should be celebrating in their offices. This means that Morpheus is going to be a resounding success.

[Section8]

I'm sick of this loser already. Almost all of his comments are biased against Sony. He never has anything good to say. Ever. Ha Ha moderators....calling the kettle black....(bastards).