Analysts Forecast Next Gen Sales will Fall Short of Current Gen, Also We Disagree

The well known Market Intelligence and Research Company "ABI Research" has forecasted that Next Gen Sales (PS4, Xbox One, Wii U) would Fall Short of Current Gen (PS3, Xbox360, Wii). However we disagree.

[ADodoBird]

You people do realise that if any side has to be proven right we have to wait 5 years :P

[Pope_Kaz_Hirai_II]

Well look at the ps4 for instance if you try to get one now for release day you have no chance (and im trying so hard btw) although ps3 was indeed 600 it was easy to get one at any time but people are being told where i live that febuary they will get their ps4... So i believe 1000% the ps4 will outsell the ps3.

[codelyoko]

Common sense and What he said ^

[cleft5]

If Sony is able to keep up with demand for the PS4 they will easily sell millions of consoles incredibly quickly. People are hungry as heck for next-gen gaming. If Sony can feed that demand they will easily outsell previous records.

[thehitman]

It wasnt easy to get a ps3 either.

[mouzone]

you must not remember people getting shot when the ps3 was released sony did not ship alot if ps3s at launch ive got every sony/microsoft console at launch since the psone and i can tell you every launch is about the same its in fact way more easy to get one at launch now because of pre ordering and places like amazon which you didnt have back then, people were waiting for theirt 360s and ps3s past January also its just more noticeable because of how much coverage these consoles are getting across the internet

[nukeitall]

Well the PS3 also outsold at launch. Remember when Sony famously claimed they will pay you a $1000 if you found a PS3 in store?

Turns out there were plenty.

So there is no doubt the PS4 is likely to sell more initially, but will it in the long run?

The market hasn't really gotten bigger for core gamers. If anything, it has gotten watered down, and some of these casual gamers that once bought a console are now on tablets, PC, smart phones and so on.

Only option is capturing the casual market that once belonged to the Wii. MS is the only one really going after this market this time around so we will see.

If MS fails, the market is likely to be smaller and combined all three consoles will sell less than current generation.

[FamilyGuy]

I think this upcoming gen will be short, like 6 years and something new will be out. Technology is moving at a fast pace in previous gens the consoles were leading the graphics curve, this time they're already behind. I don't see itt lasting as long. I think the sales will be really high for a few years but when the next thing releases it'll slow those sales to a crawl and who knows what they'll be at. 80+ million in 4 years is possible but it could go either way. I wouldn't make a 5 years in the making bet on either case.

[pete007]

it depends on competition quality, steambox, tablet and mobile gaming, dont Forget ps4 and xbox are locked hardware for 5/10 years lifecicle depending on sales. PC gaming is becoming more and more afordable and with console aproach pc is benefiting more than consoles. i strongly believe who innovates the most will succeed, traditional gaming will suffer from competition and market share loss.
in 2 or 3 years mobile devices will have the power of theese consoles or even surpass them. if i can have a device that provides me the same experience on the go, ill buy it.

[johndoe11211]

@nukeitall

Do you think it's possible for you to have a bloody neutral conversation without it having to turn into a bloody microsoft butt licking campaign????

We're not comparing nextgen systems here for christ sake, we're talking about nextgen as a whole.

goodgrief.

[rainslacker]

Don't mind him john. He believes the casuals will lap up the $500 console, when they probably won't know the difference between that and the 360 w/ Kinect Bundle which will be half the price.

More neutrally speaking, this gens console sales weren't exactly lighting up the charts compared to the prior gen. Overall more was sold, but it was spread out more, leaving no clear winner, unless we actually include the Wii in the mix, which no one here is willing to do.:)

I think current hype is normal at the start of a new gen. Near the end of next year, things will get back to normal when the systems are easily found in stores, and the excitement wears down among the hardcore. Sales will likely be even year over year compared to this gen, unless there is a definitive leader, and more risks are taken to produce better games that appeal to a broader audience like with the PS2 gen.

I say this because I feel my analysis is just as good as any random blogger on the internet...which is the article in question.

Otherwise, I agree with the original poster. It'll be many years before we can prove if this statement is true or not, and no one will remember this over all the doom and gloom articles we start seeing come the 3rd week in November.

[lilbroRx]

The same was true of the Wii U, PS3 and Wii during their launches.

Not being able to get a console at launch is an indicator of nothing.

[showtimefolks]

100 plus million
ps1
ps2
wii

70 plus at the moment at $299
ps3
xbox 360

i believe both ps3 and xbox360 will sell quite well for atleast 2-3 years meaning both have realistic chance of selling 100 plus million

what i don't like about these so called know it all guys is they don't know if gaming industry is gonna catch fire or slow down, i believe ps4 and xbox one have a very realistic chance of selling 75 plus million and wouldn't be surprised if one gets pass 100 million

[culpepper516]

definitely not. current gen came out before the iphone. social media and app support will turn next gen systems into much more of a hub for its users. i expect them to destroy past sales. expecially when the ps4 is cheaper than many tablets, and it can do so much more

[Ricegum]

I agree with the article, if my circle of friends/family is anything to go by then this gen will be one of the most popular yet, especially with China now fully in the game. Any how, we'll have to wait 5 years to see what happens, it's all just meaningless speculation at this point.

[jeffgoldwin]

I agree with you except for referencing 4-8 of your friends/family as a valid sample group. It's like saying a drop of water affects a lake in any way.

I'd reference other things like pre-sales and the anticipation for this next gen.

[MASTER_RAIDEN]

so not accurate. Generation after generation has followed a very specific format, with only the most recent gen breaking the cycle by having all 3 brands stay healthy. theres literally no reason to believe (based on the statistics alone) that this even more affordable coming gen will slow down for any reason.

"without solid titles and first party franchises.."
do you think previous IPs have just disappeared, orrrr?
console numbers will hit new records next generation for every brand other than nintendo, which will probably still have a leg to stand on throughout the gen due to its handheld sector.

[Viking_Socrates]

It should be noted that the current day consoles sales numbers didn't explode until 2008 or 2009 (I'll find a graph later) especially when it comes to the PS3. So I wouldn't expect it to be massive out of the box, although a lot of people I've talked to are hyped for both systems so who knows.

We'll get final results in 5 years.

[stavrami]

unless u show me the graph ur comment is noted as not valid .the judge has hit the gavel and the jury is retired

[OrangePowerz]

The Wii pushed the numbers higher by the fact that many non gamers bought one so it`s hard to say if they will hit the sales numbers after 5 years with the Wii U being kind of out of the picture.

If we compare only the first 5 year sales of 360+PS3 I`m certain that the Xbone+PS4 will sell more in 5 years.

[Jay70sgamer]

Never underestimate nintendo...software sells hardware ....look what they said about wii and 3ds.....Lets see how Sony and xbox sell after the Christmas holidays when the hype is gone and the software drought every new console goes through for the first few months ..both systems will sell well this Christmas ...but next year all 3 companies will be on even footing and it will be all about the software (games) Also you must look at also that regardless of how wii u is doing at this time ...they do have an almost 4 million unit lead before both systems come out just saying

[OrangePowerz]

If I remember right the Wii did well sales wise right from the start. Nintendo got lucky with the Wii because the casuals bought into it and continued to do so and it was a lot cheaper. It had some great games, but that`s all there was to the console that it had a few great games.

The Vita was never really a competition for the 3DS unfortunately.

The Wii U was marketed bad since the reveal when they only showed the GamePad, but nothing else and the name doesn`t help them either because those casual people see the Wii U and don`t know what it really is. Once PS4 and Xbone get the really good games next year Nintendo will struggle and the 4 million units lead will be gone by the end of Q1 start of Q2. They need to stop relying on the same franchises they have since over 25 years to get sales. I loved Nintendo until the GameCube, but what they did afterwards doesn`t do it especially not for core gamers that play since the NES.

I don`t want Nintendo to stop making consoles, but I want them to go back to make competitive consoles again and start making more new IPs. They can continue making Zelda and Mario, but look at what new games Sony and MS made in the last 10 years and compare that to Nintendo. It`s incredible how far Nintendo fell behind the competition in regards to software and hardware.

[Jay70sgamer]

@orange I think you are forgetting who is the console and handheld leader for the last 8 years (nintendo)that's a fact not hearsay and do you really think next year nintendo wii u is gonna struggle I think not...look at this list of games smash bros ,mario kart ,donkey kong tropical,zelda u and X...remember mario kart sold 34 million copies ...more than any franchise (1)game ,smash over 10 million sold,zelda u is gonna sell and donkey kong is gonna sell I see nintendo having a bigger year next year plus all the hype will be gone for the new consoles it will be all about the games ...plus casual games next year mario party etc...plus this year wii fit u and wii u party and sonic ....nintendo is gonna be fine ...also nintendo has the best software division in the world ...you keep saying they make the same franchise over and over no two games are the same sunshine or galaxy or mario 64 all different just mario name plus you talking about milking how many halos ,gods of war ,came out in the last generation alone at least nintendo only brings usual one per console generation

[TechMech2]

The logic that consoles are going downhill is flawed. Next gen sales will likely grow as new gamers buy new systems, and older gamers continue purchasing their favorite products.

[EXVirtual]

I think people are underestimating how much these consoles could sell. A lot of people aren't going to jump into the next-gen until the PS3 and 360 lose support, which isn't going to be straight away. The same thing happened to the PS3 and 360. There sales only peaked in 2008.

[Half-Mafia]

The PS4 & X1 will probably get to 80m like PS3/360. But it doesnt look like the WiiU will get to 100m like the Wii did. So sales will fall short.

[yellowgerbil]

Now if you are saying total yes because wiiu will ruin the combined by doing so much more poorly than the wii did.
but I'd say all time the ps3 will reach 90-100mil and the PS4 will likely do pretty close to that as well.
X1 I think will eventually fix its image enough to negate the neg views and will eventually sell maybe 80-90mil as well

[nevin1]

Wii U is off to a bad start.

[kidhero99]

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[JewyMcJew]

I think this will be the biggest generation yet, with 200 million units sold.

Couple of reasons

1. China

2. Low start price, clear path to $200 within 4 years

3. Option to move PS4 to portable unit within 6 years thanks to more energy efficient design, extending the platform for many more years

[mohuzas]

260 million were sold last gen XD

[JewyMcJew]

Sorry, I meant 200 million per console (PS4,XBONE)

[WeAreLegion]

I'm gonna go ahead and trust the Jew.

[STK026]

In the next five years, I'd say the next-gen will not match the current-gen sales, for one major reason, the Wii. While Wii sales have cooled down a lot over the last few years, it had sold around 95 million units in it first 5 years on the market. The Wii-U is off to a very slow start, slower than the PS3 (which, while it now has solid sales and games, started off pretty slow and wasn't even sold out in many stores the day it launched), and the Xbox One will have stiff competition from the PS4 in North America, arguably the Xbox brand's main stronghold.

Will the PS4 sell very well? I believe it will, and I also think the Xbox One will do quite well; but I highly doubt the next generation will match the current generation's 5 years-in sales. Let's also remember that the current generation has 3 successful consoles, the next-gen is looking more and more like the previous generation with one console (the PS4) having a lot more behind it, and likely outselling the competition by a significant margin, which could lead to less support fro other consoles, and therefore reduce the need for a lot of people to own multiple consoles, which in the end would reduce the overall number of consoles sold.

[stavrami]

what is the point of analyst's i mean technically im an analyst ill take the previous sales of 80 million for ps3 then analyse if there gonna sell more or less . heres what ive come up with. they have sold 1 million pre orders but once these are fulfilled every member of sony is gonna back pack around south america . after 3 years of getting high on amazon rain frogs and playing boob hockey with the wonga bonga tribe of the peruvian jungle they will return to production and sell 17 zillion units , now out of curiosity i do still get paid regardless of the outcome right ??? right ???

[MultiConsoleGamer]

They're absolutely right. Not only that, but there's going to be a major upset and the projected winner is going to lose.

Nintendo however, will continue to be Nintendo.

[WeAreLegion]

I don't think so, Tim.

[MultiConsoleGamer]

Well people like you still believe there are only three horses in the race. So please forgive me if I discount your opinion. The industry is headed for a major seachange.

[N4g_null]

This could very well happen. The valve steam os would be a god send if it was also the core indie or mod development interface. Lots of bsp modders started with world craft or valves own bsp editor. Mantel along with other power exposure apis could turn AAA development on its head, which would reward more talen in this industry.

Im curious to see if there will be any droughts on the ps4 and xbone release schedules. Titan fall is the only game im looking forward to playing right now. Battlefield may become the new cod, then activision will have to scramble. Yet there is enough power to return to past ips and do them justice now.

im curious as to what sonys graphics houses can pull off next gen. This may give ps4 a shot in the arm for my camp. Its just not my kind of gaming so I may buy it last. I dont really like xbone but the dev money invested into it can not be ignored. Wishful thinking that killer instinct will be good.

then you have the possible wii relapse. ?. I will be watching wii fit and the wii play/sports franchises. Then you have 3d mario, smash bros, X, mario kart with in months of each other. If we dont see wii numbers then we can start calling it an n64/ngc gen. I highly doubt that will happen. Some of these games are still played. It would be like pokemon not selling.

the only thing with the possibility of bring down console sale are the 3rd parties. A few are now struggling to stay afloat. Many have killed key franchises with bad sequels.

Ms has a game play to grab the tv watcher... the ultimate casual and fitness games, then the money hat warehouses ensure parity with ps4.

sony has the highest intended purchase and pr awareness right now. A lot is riding on can they make sddictive gameplay.

nintendo will be banking on that wii-lapse and possibly getting to the $250 price if that has not happened by spring. The wii not having games that sold alot near the end hurt them. 2d mario needs better or more stricking art also. Think mario 2 or 3....or better yet the art from mariokart 8 would have been an eye opener.

we could see a strong repeat of this gen though. If the wiiu fails to sell the following games above then the market will shrink. The ps3 hurt 3rd parties a little though so we will see if that is repaired, thinking cell dev hell. The ms money hat will continue unless valve some how takes their place.

[Hicken]

Tablets and smartphones are no threat at all, so there's that.

If you're referring to the Steam boxes, then there are some hurdles for them to overcome.

Price: Do we know what the prices will be on these things? Will they be capable of matching the new generation of consoles at the same price, or will they be considerably more expensive? Odds favor the latter, given that they are supposed to be PC-consoles.

Exclusive Library: The single most important reason to get ANY console. What library will these things be boasting that would entice people to buy them over the current competitors? We can possibly expect Half Life 3(HUGE maybe on that one), but what else would there be?

Relevancy: Why not just get a PC? Most of the library will be there. And if it's not there, it'll likely be on consoles. All (or most) the features will also be on other platforms, as well, and possibly better. Simply put: what purpose will the devices serve that isn't better served by something already out?

As to the article: I think it all depends on how intensely the PS4 and XB1 sell. As it currently stands, I just don't see the Wii U putting up the sales numbers ANY of the current gen's numbers. Which means it'll be up to the other two to pick up the slack.

And that's a lot of slack. I'm guessing about 50 million between the two of them, which would place them in PS2 territory.

I dunno if that's gonna happen.

[allgamespc2012]

why disagree? its kinf of obvious they wont sell as much.

[Roccetarius]

I think it depends on a number of different factors, such as if the compelling games serves to rip people off instead.

We'll see what happens.

[Gemmol]

people preorder always sell out what console preorder never sell out....even Wii U sold out gamestop by me sold out on second day......but what these analysis say I can see happening after systems slow down from holiday time I do not see them racking up big sales throughout the year unless its for big games like Mario Kart or something else thats big....I wanted to say infamous with mario kart but it do not sell that much

[ChickenOfTheCaveMan]

If we only compare PS3/X360 vs PS4/X1 sales, I think it will be even and next gen may even be more successful.

Wii vs Wii U will be a major drop.

So overall, yes, we might see a decrease.

[BG11579]

At this point I would be more interested in the previsions of the PC-gaming numbers. I'm under the impression that less and less people buy computers for gaming. It seems that they are slowly but surely being really placed by tablets...

[N4g_null]

Pc sells are down as a whole, people are not upgrading across the board.

[BG11579]

That's what I thought to, but it is just my point of view, so can be certain.
This is a bad thing.

[jeffgoldwin]

I would argue that someone paying $800-2000 for a gaming pc is rarely ever going to be switching over to gaming on a tablet, no more than a console gamer would. It's more of the casuals and non-gamers new to the scene going to tablets.

As far as pc numbers being low, its obviously a very subjective and interpretive stat. If you look at Steam pc game sales, they are at record numbers. If you focus on windows 8 sales being low, then you may make the mistake of saying pc numbers are getting lower, when in fact a lot of pc builders are just opting for windows 7 instead or upgrading individual components.

Instead of googling windows 8 sales, I would check out software sales/digital sales as a more valid indicator where pc sales are at. But idk even then you have some pc gamers exclusively playing free to play or subscription based mmo's. Lol so many factors.

Just my 2 cents.