With the confirmation of Grand Theft Auto V's September release date, and tease of the PS4 announcement coming only a day apart, I was left wondering what the imminent arrival of the 'next generation' meant for one of gaming's biggest franchises.
Rumours currently on Eurogamer point to a US and Japan PS4 release in time for Christmas, with Europe to follow soon after (perhaps like the Vita did and come some time in February). That leaves GTAV only a couple months or so grace period before we're all sucked up into the hype of Playstation 4.
How will this affect sales? How will this affect the GTAV, or conversely, how will GTAV affect PS4? It will be impossible to measure, and in the end, there could be no effect at all. However, when the biggest game of the year, and perhaps the last 5 years (since the release of GTAIV) releases only weeks shy of a new hardware system that it potentially won't be available on (we've had no confirmations about specs of the PS4- it could be backward compatible), then there's bound to be some cut-through.
Let's look at some numbers- a recent article on gamesindustry.biz ( http://www.gamesindustry.bi... suggests GTAV will sell somewhere in the vicinity of 15 million to 25 million units, with the bulk of those sales occurring in its first 6 months on the market. Presuming the PS4 releases in the US and Japan in time for Christmas, and in Europe shortly thereafter, most of those sales will occur in the immediate launch window of the PS4.
That could have a direct impact on the initial success, or marketing push of the PS4, or conversely GTAV. GTAV is perhaps the last third-party hoorah on PS3 and therefore there'll be a lot of attention swirling around it, and the PS3 right around the time of the expected launch of the PS4. While we all fully expect Sony to support the PS3 for a long time to come, throwing a game of the calibre of GTAV into the mix when your trying to focus attention on your new hardware seems counter-intuitive. It's giving limelight to your old hardware at the time you need it on your new hardware.
To me then, this presents three alternate scenarios. The first and most obvious is, I'm over analysing this whole thing, and there'll be not net effect whatsoever. However, I feel that this is unlikely given the $1 billion plus sales GTAV is likely to fetch in the face of a new hardware launch (also remembering there's Microsoft and their console(s) here- but lets forget them for the sake of this blog post). That's money and attention Sony would probably rather see going to the establishment of their new hardware.
The second alternative is GTAV will make an appearance on next gen- looking either the same or being tweaked somewhat to take advantage of the greater hardware capability. It happened at the turnover of this generation and the last, where games made appearances on both platforms, so there's no reason why it couldn't happen here. It would give a new console the boost it needed at launch with such a huge franchise being playable from the get-go.
The third alternative is a 2013 announcement of the PS4 for a 2014 release. I fully expect that we will not hear very much detail about PS4 come 20 February. It's more likely to give us a tease of the hardware, a quick glimpse, and a showcase of upcoming games, than a full blow reveal. Remember that 2013 is shaping up to be one of the PS3's biggest years for new and impressive game releases. Sony runs the risk of sucking the oxygen out of their 2013 release schedule while baiting people to wait for the imminent arrival of the next gen.
Regardless, it'll be an exciting year for Playstation gamers in 2013 and beyond, and I'm looking forward to every second of it. Sound off in the comments below with your thoughts.
Nintendo Switch version 18.0.1 firmware update has been released and the full patch notes are now available.
. Fixed an issue where some wireless access points cannot be found when setting up a new wireless network
. General system stability improvements to enhance the user’s experience.
Pac-Pix launched in 2005 as a Nintendo DS exclusive, and deserves to make a comeback on modern touchscreen devices.
It's about time we talk about the flamethrower and how it should be made better in Helldivers 2, starting with the ability to destroy bug holes.
How does that signify 'PS4 vs GTA V'?
Good post. I'm really curious to see what happens. I'm playing through The Ballad of Gay Tony again, and I can't help but wonder how much more amazing the game would be with that extra level of polish better hardware can offer. So I'm rooting for a PS4 port.
I'd expect PS4 to be out by the end of November. Announcing the console in February seems to be in an effort to let publishers start talking about their games. If it wasn't going to be out this year, I don't see why Sony would bother this early, so I think that rules out a 2014 release.
With that in mind, I think there's a very good chance we will see GTAV on PS4. The two would be competing for attention otherwise. On one hand you have Sony telling us it's time to upgrade. On the other, you have Rockstar telling us to stick with our current consoles and play what could be this generation's greatest game.
I think Sony would love to have a definitive version of GTAV as a launch title, and I'm sure Rockstar would love to be riding the next-gen hype train with Sony. They can get by without each other, but why compete for attention when you can work together and do even better?
You also have to keep in mind that to Rockstar, skipping a next-gen release is more than just not doing a port. It's leaving Rockstar's biggest franchise without a presence on next-gen consoles for years. Maybe as many as five if GTA6 is in development as long as V has been. Does Rockstar really want to go that long, and let Saints Row, Watch Dogs, and Just Cause dominate the open world genre on PS4?
Not being on next-gen consoles presents another problem. The initial release of GTAV probably won't be slowed down by new consoles, but it will hamper DLC sales. Rockstar goes big on DLC. V on PS3 can stand out against a PS4 launch line-up, but DLC, whether it's episodes or multiplayer add-ons, being for "old" consoles will have a much harder time standing out against a 2014 line-up filled with next-gen games.
All things considered, I think there's a very good chance Rockstar will just go ahead with a port.
Considering how shitty console software sales are right now(yes they are shitty,nowhere close to what they should be,like %50+ down),this whole year will be a disaster for the industry.
Releasing GTA5 in September without some kind of backup plan is lol.
PS4/720 reveals not accounted.
I love someone writing such a long article about pure assumptions. No one knows if the PS4 will release then or even the Xbox 720 for all we know it could be early next year.
So stop acting like you do and it won't affect the sales of GTA V because people already own Xbox 360's and PS3's. They will buy it just to play it on whatever it is released on first which obviously will be those two.
Then no one even knows how much these new consoles will even cost or if people will even want to run out and buy them on release.
Another thing which EffectO pointed out the industry in general is hurting, so if anything affects the sales that badly it will be just the timing of everything and how the industry has changed.
It should do good enough though in my opinion as GTA appeals to many people and I know regardless of what happens it's going to sell. I know every single one of my friends have always played GTA heavily and have bought every single game which says a lot because my friends are extremely picky and barely play games to begin with.
It's just one of those games people love to talk about and share so I really don't see the need to worry so much about it.
I also don't see how the date has anything do with it releasing on the PS4. I think Rockstar would have announced something along those lines already, again just pure assumptions that it will end up on the PS4.
I personally would rather it not, then if it sells well they can make an entirely new one for newer consoles. I mean no doubt they will end up making GTA 6 eventually anyway.