Wii U - Is This the Beginning of the end for Nintendo?

So last week we saw the release of Nintendo's new edition to the family; The Wii U.

On the face of it, the console looks quite entertaining and I suppose the main focus is around the new Wii U GamePad.

It's about a 10 inch long, tablet shaped controller, featuring a 6.2 inch screen in the center. It also has joysticks on either side of the pad, with a D-Pad and what appears to be Xbox style buttons (but completely inverted) on either side of the controller. It also features a motion sensor and an accelerometer for a more physical aspect towards gaming.

With a controller like this, you would like to think Nintendo are mounting a serious challenge to it's Microsoft and Sony counterparts.

But are they?

In my personal opinion, the Wii did nothing for me. The Wii, for me, was a disaster in terms of gaming. Now, that may sound a little harsh, but I'm from the bread and butter gaming background, where a game was played sitting on your arse, requiring no physical input whatsoever, aside from your fingers and thumbs. The Wii, was no more than a 5 minute gimmick. Yes, it was enjoyable seeing your character on screen, mimic what you are doing in real life. Yes, it was enjoyable with a group of friends, pretending you are at a bowling alley. But after a few months, that same Wii console would have gathered dust and you start to consider selling it.

Now, Nintendo seemed to have tried to incorporate their user-friendly gaming, with old school back to basics game play.

But I don't think it has worked as well as Nintendo would have hoped it had. Again, the touchscreen on the game pad feels no more than a gimmick. Albeit, the novelty of having the choice to precisely pick the spot on the goal where you wish to score on FIFA is quite fun, but I can't see myself ever changing my style of play to incorporate this and would probably only use it once or twice to "try it out".

Maybe I'm wrong and maybe it'll be a slow start for the Wii U and things might pick up eventually. But I can't see past their market being families who are not educated in gaming, and that strikes me as a real risk for Nintendo as I'm sure that's not the market they're after as it's not a safe one.

[Picnic]

Because of the large userbase of the Wii, I predict sales of between 50-65 million and if it gets more than that it is quite a success when you look at gaming history, even given that the original Wii sold close to 100 million.

The reason that it might lose anywhere between half to a third of the Wii's numbers is that some of those who bought the Wii will be fickle gaming consumers who might buy something like an Ipad for their gaming this time instead.

Some may also ask whether it is meant to be the last console of this generation (in which case, they might think it is a bit too little too late) or the first of the next generation (in which case they make think that the game should look better).

It might attract back some people who abandoned Nintendo after the Gamecube, who were curious about some Wii games but were put off by the Wii's lack of graphical prowess and its excessive popularity. Or like me, they might wish that Sega was still in the hardware business.

[sway_z]

Nintendo can always rely on their core fans. Although the system does not attract me at this point, I can see it being a major success.

If I were to predict lifetime sales, I would go with around 70 Million. I strongly believe 30% of Wii purchasers were buying the console on a fad basis, and were not truly gamers.

I can tell you a lot of my friends purchased a Wii and it ended up on ebay or gathered dust in a closet until the christmas family get together and grandma would be mildly amused at everyone jumping around pointing that pointy thing at the TV.

So the Wii U will not fail, but may fail to steal PS3/360 owners from MS/Sony who seek that hardcore experience they have been so accustomed to.